As governments around the globe are gearing up for a sustainable future, the global ambition of attaining net zero carbon emissions by 2050 has become an overriding goal. A net zero concept, implying that no additional carbon emissions from human activities are added to the atmosphere, is at the heart of this movement. With its long-standing desire for rapid economic growth and prosperity, Nepal is scheduled to graduate from a least developed country in November 2026, aiming to become a middle-income nation and achieve Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

Concurrently, Nepal pledged to achieve an ambitious net zero emissions by 2045, five years earlier than the global target. Other developing countries like the Maldives, Laos, Sri Lanka and Ethiopia plan to succeed by 2050. But in Nepal’s case, developmental aspirations and inherent geographical and topographical constraints pose a critical question: Is Nepal ready for this?

Nepal’s commitment and efforts

Despite a low contribution of around 0.03 percent in global carbon emissions, Nepal is highly vulnerable to climate crisis. Erratic rainfall patterns, glacier melting and increased frequency of natural disasters, including floods and landslides, threaten the livelihoods of vulnerable communities—mostly from rural Nepal.

The 2015 Paris Agreement (PA), established legally binding international climate goals to limit the global average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Under this agreement, each party has an obligation to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years to the United Nations Framework on Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat.

Taking into account the common but differentiated responsibilities, Nepal ratified the Paris Agreement in 2015 and submitted its first NDC to UNFCCC in 2016. The mitigation actions include scaling up clean energy development pathways, enhancing carbon sequestration through afforestation, embracing environmentally sustainable transport systems, adopting climate friendly practices in agriculture, waste management and building codes. For its effective implementation, both bilateral and multilateral funding were envisaged as core components to meet the resource gaps.

However, a 2020 study showed that Nepal failed to realise most of the mitigation targets stipulated in the first NDC. The study pointed to inadequate stakeholder engagement, lack of political commitment, limited arrangement of institutions, including policies, programmes and budget as key barriers in translating the targets of NDC into actions.

Nepal submitted its second enhanced NDC in 2020 setting targets in coherence with sectors identified by National Climate Change Policy, 2019. It identified energy, transport, clean cooking, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) and waste sector as core components. In addition, the second NDC also set adaptation policy targets aligning with Nepal’s national policies.

In contrast, China, one of the largest emitters, India and the European Union (EU) have pledged to achieve net zero by 2060, 2070 and 2050, respectively. Many of these countries which account for a higher share of anthropogenic emissions have set their high emission period so that they can meet their economic growth and development aspirations. For instance, China aims for peak carbon emission before 2030 and India has set out to reach its emission peak in 2040.

In order to achieve NDC targets, the Government of Nepal has endorsed the NDC implementation Plan which serves as a guiding policy and also as a planning and monitoring document to translate NDC targets into actions. The total cost estimated for the NDC implementation is estimated to be around $33 billion. From this, approximately $3.4 billion is required for the implementation of the unconditional hydroelectric generation that will be mobilised through domestic resources. However, the remaining targets to reduce GHG emission from various sectors are mostly conditional and require international support.

Barriers and opportunities

Nepal’s over-dependence on fossil fuel energy and heavy reliance on biomass and traditional energy like firewood, in combination with methane emissions from livestock and rice paddies, are hurdles in the country’s net zero aspirations. Although our emission is negligible in comparison with other countries, achieving net zero by 2045 is a daunting task, especially when the country is aiming for rapid economic growth and socio-economic transformation. Natural endowments including its geography (landlocked and complex topography), poor infrastructure and sub-par governance and implementation capabilities pose significant barriers to a low-carbon economy.

Policy inconsistency is another impediment. For instance, the adoption of electric transport systems is a critical component, identified by NDC for the net zero goal. The sales of private electric vehicles are promising in urban centres. However, frequent changes in tax rates in the federal budget has perplexed the users, hindering the adoption and diffusion of e-vehicles. Limited infrastructure, for instance, the number, distribution and quality of charging stations is another challenge in the transport sector. Extensive adoption of public electric vehicles and the development of electric e-railways are crucial for developing a sustainable transportation system in the country.

Despite these challenges, Nepal has significant opportunities to transition towards a low-carbon economy with net zero emissions. Even though only a fraction of Nepal’s hydroelectricity potential has been tapped, expanding this will not only meet Nepal’s growing energy demands but will also be a milestone in replacing fossil fuels.

The path to this ambitious goal requires both process and policy interventions, so a sudden shift to net zero options without considering available alternatives and analysing potential impacts can lead to economic instability. For instance, Sri Lanka’s adoption of organic farming without comprehensive analysis of the economic consequences had huge impacts on its economic stability.

While Nepal’s commitment is positive, meeting net zero target by 2045 will require substantial funding and structural transformation across key sectors such as energy, transport, industry and agriculture. These sectors must carefully evaluate the pathways, keeping the balance between economic growth and sustainable development in mind. As the country is set to prepare a third NDC document, concerned stakeholders should analyse the gaps, priorities, sectoral plans and policies, progress and the way forward for the intersection of net zero, LDC graduation, SDG, middle income status and the vision of 2100. A holistic approach incorporating participation, collaboration and partnership among all stakeholders becomes paramount.