Climate change likely to have helped trigger Nepal glacier collapse, scientists say
Researchers say warming temperatures, thinning glaciers, thawing permafrost and excess meltwater likely created conditions that made the late-August collapse more likely. A motorcyclist rides through thick mud with flood-damaged houses in the background following deadly flash floods and a mudslide, in Devighat, Nuwakot district, Nepal, September 11, 2026. Reuters
Climate change is highly likely to have contributed to the catastrophic glaciercollapse that flooded parts of Nepal and Tibet in late August, killing around1,400 people and leaving thousands still missing, scientists said onThursday.
Rapidly warming temperatures inthe region have caused glaciers to thin and have melted ice andpermafrost buried deep in the bedrock of the Himalayas, according to the WorldWeather Attribution, opens new tab (WWA) group of researchers.
While it is difficult to ascertainthe precise role played by climate change in the collapse ofaround 2 sq km (0.8 sq miles) of rock wall and glacier ice on the LangtangLirung mountain last month, soaring temperatures created thepreconditions that made it more likely, researchers involved in the study said.
"There's absolutely no doubtthat human induced climate change played a role here in thepreconditioning of the disaster through permafrost thawing, through thinning ofthe glaciers, through having more rainfall instead of snow," saidFriederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial College London.
WWA uses peer-reviewed methods toassess the role playedby global warming in extreme weather events, according to its website.
The study said meantemperatures were around 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) higher thannormal in the Himalayan region in August, with 1.5 C of the increase coming fromclimate change.
Unusually high levels of snowfallin October and November of last year also added to the volume of meltwater oncetemperatures began to rise, which could have helped trigger the glaciercollapse, according to the study.
Glaciers in the regionhave been thinning byabout half a metre peryear (about 1.6 feet) since the year 2000, changing stresses on the rock.Melting permafrost is also likely to have weakened the rock wall, the study said.
A 7.8 magnitude earthquake that hit the same mountain in2015 could have played a role by weakening the underlying bedrock as well, butits precise impact is unclear.
"We conclude that this was ageologically vulnerable slope, potentially weakened by the 2015earthquake, but it was destabilised further by glacier and permafrost retreat and by the excessivemeltwater and exceptional warmth in the final period before the collapse,"said WalterImmerzeel, a mountain hydrologist from Utrecht University.
21.12°C Kathmandu
