– A thaw in ties may be under way between India and China, but the latter’s plans to construct what has been dubbed the world’s largest hydropower dam in Tibet on the Yarlung Zangbo river have resurfaced worries that water could become the next flash point in bilateral ties.

India has urged China to be transparent and consultative in its plans to construct the hydropower dam in the lower reaches of the river, which becomes the Brahmaputra as it flows south into India. The river enters the country in the north-eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims in its entirety as its territory.

It then flows into neighbouring Assam state and into Bangladesh, where it is known as the Jamuna, flowing southwards and eventually emptying into the Bay of Bengal.

Relations between India and China recently stabilised after a four-year stalemate over a June 2020 border clash that killed at least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers.

China’s state-run Xinhua news agency reported on Dec 25 that the Chinese government had approved the construction of the dam and said it “is expected to boost local people’s livelihood and prosperity in south-west China’s Xizang Autonomous Region”, which is China’s name for Tibet.

But in India, distrust remains over Chinese intentions, with commentary centred on whether Beijing will use the dam to flood border areas when border disputes flare up, and over whether water flow will be impacted in a river that millions depend on in India and Bangladesh for agriculture, fishing and drinking water.

India’s External Affairs Ministry spokesman, Mr Randhir Jaiswal, said at a briefing on Jan 3 that India had taken the matter up with the Chinese side based on the Xinhua report.

“As a lower riparian, with established user rights to the waters of the river, we have consistently expressed through expert level, as well as diplomatic channels, our views and concerns to the Chinese side on mega projects on rivers in their territory. These have been reiterated along with the need for transparency and consultation with downstream countries following the latest reports,” said Mr Jaiswal.

“The Chinese side has been urged to ensure that the interests of downstream states of Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities in upstream areas. We will continue to monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests.”

The impact of the dam was also supposed to feature in talks between visiting US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and his Indian counterpart, Mr Ajit Doval, on Jan 6. But the issue did not figure in the joint press release put out after their talks.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said at a regular press conference on Jan 6 that the project would not impact downstream countries.

“Let me reiterate that the decision to build the project was made after rigorous scientific evaluation and the project will not have a negative impact on the ecological environment, geological conditions and the rights and interests related to water resources of downstream countries.

“Rather, it will, to some extent, help with their disaster prevention and reduction, and climate response,” he said.

Hydropower has long been a cornerstone of China’s energy strategy and the project was approved in 2020 as part of China’s 14th five-year plan from 2021 to 2025.

The project is set to cost more than US$137 billion (S$186 billion) in investment and could generate three times more energy than the Three Gorges Dam, international media reported, though some experts have cast doubt on that claim. The Three Gorges Dam in central China’s Hubei province is currently the world’s largest.

Chinese official media has so far not reported on the scale of the hydropower project in the Yarlung Zangbo river.

The state chiefs of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh have expressed their fears to the federal government.

“We have already communicated (to the federal government) that if this dam comes, then the Brahmaputra ecosystem will become completely fragile, it will become dry and will only depend on the rainwater of Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh,” said Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma at a press conference on Dec 1.

Ties back on track

India and China have just set their beleaguered relationship back on track after the border blowout in 2020. After multiple rounds of negotiations and disengagement, the two countries reached an agreement on Oct 21, 2024, on patrolling along the Line of Actual Control, the de facto border, in eastern Ladakh.

Two days later, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed the border deal and signalled a desire to normalise ties in their first formal talks in five years, on the sidelines of the Brics Summit in the Russian city of Kazan.

A range of issues including data sharing on transboundary rivers was also discussed by Mr Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Dec 18.

China provides India with hydrological information on the Brahmaputra as well as the Sutlej river, which starts in Tibet, during flood season.

The building of a dam near the border definitely poses a challenge for India, said Dr Y. Nithiyanandam, head of the Geospatial Research Programme at the Bengaluru-based Takshashila Institution.

He noted that the water flow in the river is already under stress due to climate change leading to the melting of glaciers.

“In Tibet, rising temperatures and shrinking glaciers threaten to disrupt the Yarlung Zangbo’s flow, impacting long-term water availability. Downstream, India and Bangladesh face heightened risks from extreme climate events and human activities, making these interconnected systems highly vulnerable,” said Dr Nithiyanandam.

“Large-scale water diversion projects, sedimentation and dam construction exacerbate these risks, affecting ecosystems and livelihoods across the region,” he added.

Reflecting on Mekong

India is looking to the Mekong River, which too has been affected by climate change and dam building, as a test case for potential disruption to the water flow in the Brahmaputra.

China has been accused of disrupting water flows on the Mekong through its construction of dams. There are 190 operational dams on the Mekong, which is known as the Lancang in China.

Beijing, however, has denied its activities are causing issues for countries like Thailand.

Fears about the dam on the Yarlung Zangbo are overblown, maintained Professor Zhang Jiadong, director of the Centre for South Asian Studies at Fudan University.

He noted that all hydropower projects are bound to trigger environmental concerns, with countries all over the world seeking to similarly balance economic benefit versus people’s livelihoods and the environment.

“There was this issue when China built the Three Gorges Dam, a debate which continues today, so let alone on an international river,” said Prof Zhang, who is an expert on China-India relations.

“It’s normal that other countries are concerned, but there’s no reason to say my environmental concern is more important than your consideration. These days, we tend to think about projects as environment or ecology first, but humans are the most important in world-ecology,” he said.

Prof Zhang also said that foreign media reports have exaggerated the scale of the project by “conflating various ideas together”, noting that some have compared it to the Three Gorges Dam.

“It’s impossible to be as big a project as the Three Gorges Dam. How can such a big project be built there? There’s not much water in that area, and it’s not cost-effective from an economic point of view,” he said.

Prof Zhang added that he did not see any impact on the overall direction of India-China ties, which he said is “on a generally upward trajectory”.

‘Statesmanship the best course’

Still, Indian analysts noted that the development underpinned an urgent need for India to have a strategy in place for any exigencies.

The governments of Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, for instance, try and manage the resources of the Mekong through the Mekong River Commission, of which, however, China is not a part.

“Although statesmanship is the best course, the issue can become a contentious point between China and India if perceptions of inequitable water usage or unilateral actions persist,” noted Mr Neeraj Singh Manhas, special adviser for South Asia at Parley Policy Initiative, a non-partisan think-tank based in South Korea.

“India’s possible ways to manage this crisis are to diplomatically engage China and push for transparency and smooth water sharing conventions. However, partnering with regional friends, such as Bhutan and Bangladesh, which also have water issues, might create a united front to address common challenges,” he said.

“The river is strategically critical to both our countries in a way that makes it both a vital lifeline and potential flashpoint, and navigating this situation will involve assertive negotiations, and regional coordination to fashion a solution, as well as worst-case scenario planning,” he added.

Nirmala Ganapathy

Additional reporting by Michelle Ng in Beijing