Prime Minister and CPN (Maoist Centre) chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal and CPN-UML chief KP Sharma Oli, who had unexpectedly joined hands to form a governing coalition on December 25, has so far succeeded in forming the government under Dahal’s leadership, expand the Cabinet, and elect the Speaker and Deputy Speaker.

The two leaders, who were arch-rivals until a few months ago, however, still harbour suspicion of each other despite being key partners of the governing coalition.

The upcoming election for the post of President has now become a major bone of contention between the two top leaders.

Of late, even after the expansion of the Cabinet and the election of the Speaker, Dahal and Oli have been holding a series of marathon meetings, which reflects the two leaders are still struggling to find a common ground on the election of President.

The two recent moves have added to UML chair Oli’s suspicion of Dahal. First, the decision of the Nepali Congress, the largest party in the House of Representatives, to give a vote of trust to Dahal, and second Dahal’s public statement to consult the Congress in connection with the presidential election.

Dahal’s fear is that a domineering UML chair Oli, who already has a strong hold on the Cabinet, has also secured the post of Speaker and four chief ministers and other key posts for his party, will have a very strong grip on the state apparatus. As per the two-party agreement, Dahal has to hand over the prime ministership to Oli in the second half of the five-year term. Once the UML heads the executive, the Maoist Centre will in turn head the legislature.

In an attempt to check Oli, Dahal seems to be exploring an alternative way to deny the UML the presidential post. Dahal, therefore, has also floated the option of a non-political candidate for the head of state. However, Oli and other UML leaders have vehemently opposed the idea saying that the ruling coalition has already agreed on electing a UML nominee as President.

Political observers and experts claim there is a trust deficit between the two leaders.

Political analysts claimed that if the UML candidate wins the presidency, it will be challenging for Dahal to lead the government. On the other hand, Oli seems to be fearing that Dahal and his party may at the last moment betray him by not supporting the UML’s presidential candidate.

“If the UML is able to appoint a President, Oli will be stronger,” Hari Roka, a left-leaning political analyst who was also the first Constituent Assembly member under the Maoist quota, told the Post. “Therefore, Prime Minister Dahal does not want that to happen while Oli is trying to convince Dahal.”

Roka said Dahal seems to be trying to avoid the situation of powers being centralised on the UML.

However, UML leader Bishal Bhattarai claims that there is no deficit of trust between the two leaders. He argued that a series of meetings between the two main leaders of the governing coalition aimed at solving various problems shouldn’t be interpreted as mistrust.

“Running a coalition government of diverse parties in itself is difficult in Nepal. Therefore, the two leaders of the ruling coalition are involved in regular discussions,” Bhattarai told the Post. “The UML-Maoist coalition was formed only after the Congress-led alliance betrayed Dahal. And today he is prime minister with our support, so there is no misunderstanding between the leaders.”

However, Roka claimed that the two leaders meet regularly because they don’t trust each other. He also drew parallels between the present scenario and the situation when Oli and Dahal used to hold a series of meetings when the two leaders jointly headed the then Nepal Communist Party. Roka said the present situation reminded him of the NCP period.

During the NCP days, the majority of the secretariat members (five out of nine) were close to Dahal. Oli accused Dahal of creating unnecessary pressure on him with the backing of the majority members of the party secretariat. The personality clash between the two leaders resulted in the split in the NCP in 2021 which had merged to form a single party back in 2018. After the party split, the two leaders were engaged in spitting venom at each other.

However, after the result of the November 20 elections, the two leaders suddenly came together to form the government under the leadership of Dahal. But, the reins of the government are said to be in Oli’s hands.

Alliance partners like the Rastriya Swatantra Party and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party are also reportedly in the grip of Oli. Political analyst Roka argues that Oli is trying to create pressure on Dahal by keeping the coalition parties on his side.

Dahal spent more than five hours at Oli’s residence in Balkot on the day he expanded the Cabinet on January 16. After the meeting with Oli, Dahal inducted 12 ministers and three ministers of state. He was appointed prime minister on December 25.

There are also assumptions that Dahal lacks the authority to make a single-handed decision on government matters because he is heavily reliant on Oli. Indicating the same in his address to Parliament on January 19 during the Speaker’s election, Nepali Congress General Secretary Bishwa Parkash Sharma said Dahal was caged.

In a recent interview with the Post, Janamat Party chief CK Raut, a ruling alliance partner, also acknowledged the prime minister’s role in weakening the coalition government.

To minimize Oli’s pressure, Prime Minister Dahal wants to see someone non-political appointed as President, said a Maoist Centre leader close to Dahal. A source close to Prime Minister Dahal referring to him said, “The Prime Minister is confident that he can convince the Congress if the UML agrees on appointing a non-political person as President.”

On Tuesday too, Oli had a meeting with Prime Minister Dahal at Baluwatar. They are said to have discussed contemporary issues including the Presidential election.

“The meeting between two leaders was focused on the elections for President and Vice-President,” a Dahal aide told the Post. “They also discussed the possibility of picking someone non-political as President.”

The Congress which gave the vote of trust to Dahal has been calling for electing a new President through political consensus, and Dahal has responded positively to the proposal.

But CPN-UML chair Oli has rejected the idea outright saying only a UML nominee will be President as per an earlier agreement with the Maoist Centre.

Prime Minister Dahal also convened an all-party meeting on January 17 to seek national consensus on the presidential election. Oli had walked out of the meeting midway.