The price of mutton has refused to come down after reaching an all-time high of Rs1,700 per kg in July, and traders expect it to rise further as Nepal heads into Dashain, the country’s biggest meat-eating festival.

Mutton was selling for Rs1,300–1,400 per kg during last year’s festive season. It now costs Rs1,600–1,700 per kg. Goat traders say the price is among the highest in the world, making mutton in Nepal particularly expensive compared with many other countries. 

Goat traders attribute the increase to a decline in supply, higher transportation and feed costs, and the difficulty of sourcing animals from rural areas after floods and landslides.

Consumer rights activists, however, say the sharp increase cannot be explained by production and transport costs alone. They blame the multiple layers of intermediaries involved in the goat trade, inadequate market monitoring and the fragmented nature of Nepal’s livestock sector.

“The price can go up as there is no sufficient number of goats this year to meet the festival demand,” said Jiban Khatiwada, president of the Nepal Livestock Traders Association and manager of Kalanki Khasi Bazar, the country’s largest livestock trading hub.

The association estimates that the Kathmandu Valley alone typically consumes 80,000–100,000 live goats during the Dashain festival period, out of roughly 500,000 consumed annually in the valley.

Live goat sales during the two-week Dashain period exceed Rs3 billion in the valley alone, according to the association. The estimate excludes goats sold directly by individual farmers.

The association expects to bring around 25,000 live goats to Kathmandu this Dashain, nearly one-fourth less than last year’s demand.

At Kalanki Khasi Bazar, live goats are currently trading at Rs750-850 per kg, compared with Rs650-700 per kg during last year’s Dashain.

The price of a 25-kg Khari [breed] he-goat can reach Rs25,000–30,000 in the two weeks before Dashain, compared with Rs15,000–20,000 during non-festive periods.

Dashain officially begins on Sunday with Ghatasthapana, marking the start of the two-week festival, when meat consumption traditionally surges.

But the higher prices could also dampen demand this year.

“As the price has sharply gone up compared to last Dashain, people may be buying a few kilos of mutton instead of live goat,” Khatiwada said.

Market analysts also expect demand for live goats to weaken because of declining household purchasing power as economic activity remains subdued.

The year-on-year consumer price inflation for meat and fish rose 8.65 percent in mid-August compared with the same period last year, according to Nepal Rastra Bank.

The August 26 Bhotekoshi-Trishuli flood has also added to supply and transportation problems, traders say. Thousands of animals, including goats, died in the disaster, while damaged roads have made it harder to transport livestock from producing rural areas to urban markets.

“The longer monsoon has created problems in transportation of goats this year, which can impact the price,” said Gobinda Prasad Subedi, president of the Federation of Nepal Commercial Goat Producers.

Subedi said traders have already started loading and sending live goats to Kathmandu from various districts.

He estimates that live goats could cost Rs900–1,000 per kg at retail during the festive season, compared with Rs700–800 per kg last year.

Yet, he said, farmers are not necessarily benefiting from the higher retail prices.

“Farmers are selling live goats at Rs700 per kg,” Subedi said. “There are three to four layers of middlemen involved in selling the goat.”

Nepal’s goat sector is dominated by smallholders, with relatively few large commercial farms. Goats are collected from scattered rural areas and transported through several intermediaries before reaching consumers in Kathmandu and other urban centres.

Private traders source goats from Sindhuli, Ramechhap, Okhaldhunga, Bhojpur, Khotang, Makawanpur, Bara, Parsa, Rautahat, Sarlahi, and Kavrepalanchok. They also bring goats and buffaloes from districts including Morang, Sunsari, Rupandehi, Kapilvastu, Banke, Dang and Bardiya.

The state-owned Food Management and Trading Company, which had been selling goats in Kathmandu for around three decades to help check festive price spikes, has stopped doing so.

“We didn’t sell goats last Dashain due to the Gen Z movement. This year too, the flood and landslide has made it difficult to find goats in the villages. So, we have decided not to sell goats this year too,” said Sharmila Neupane Subedi, acting chief executive officer of the company.

Officials say the absence of the state-owned company from the mutton market could contribute to higher prices during Dashain.

The company, however, has long faced criticism that its annual goat trading does little to regulate the market and instead benefits high-ranking officials and politicians.

Around 70 percent of goats sold in the Kathmandu Valley are traded through Kalanki Khasi Bazar, with the remaining 30 percent sold through other markets, according to the traders’ association.

The supply of mountain goats and sheep from Mustang is also being affected by poor road conditions or disruptions caused by landslides. Around 4,000–5,000 animals arrived from Mustang on Sunday, according to the association.

Because of road problems, it takes four to five days to transport the animals to Pokhara, from where they are supplied to Kathmandu, traders say, adding that around 60 percent of the mountain goats are consumed in Pokhara and the rest in the Kathmandu Valley.

The Department of Livestock Services, however, disputes the claim that Nepal faces a major shortage of goats.

Umesh Dahal, director general of the department, said the country has sufficient production of goats and mountain goats. The August 26 Bhotekoshi flood had some impact on livestock, he said, but production in the mid-hill areas has remained good.

“The transportation cost has slightly impacted the price. But the way retail prices have increased, it is unnatural,” Dahal said.

He said the department has informed the Ministry of Industry, which is responsible for monitoring the market, about the unusual spike in mutton prices.

Nepal has around 10.6 million goats, according to the department.

Consumer rights activists say the gap between farm-gate and retail prices points to problems deeper than a simple shortage of animals.

Bishnu Prasad Timilsina, general secretary of the Forum for Protection of Consumer Rights-Nepal, said weak monitoring and the involvement of multiple intermediaries have made meat prices in Nepal unusually high.

“There is no reason for mutton to cost Rs1,700 per kg,” Timilsina said. “The government should take this issue seriously.”