A revival in monsoon rains has accelerated paddy transplantation by nearly 10 percentage points from last year’s pace, raising hopes of increased output of Nepal’s key summer-sown crop after a delayed onset of the monsoon and its slow advance across parts of the country.

Paddy transplantation has reached 92.57 percent of the country’s 1.37 million hectares of available paddy fields as of Friday, according to data released by the Department of Agriculture. This means farmers have transplanted paddy on around 1.26 million hectares.

In the same period last year, the transplantation rate stood at 83.93 percent as of July 31.

The paddy transplantation rate in the perennially parched Madhesh province has risen by more than 33 percentage points from last year and crossed 90 percent as of Friday. Last year, below-average rainfall delayed transplantation in the province and affected both production and productivity in the country’s national food basket.

Regular rainfall over the past week has sharply reduced the earlier transplantation deficit caused by below-normal rainfall.

In 2024, Nepal recorded one of the fastest paddy transplantation rates in many decades. By July 31, transplantation had reached 96 percent, courtesy of “above-normal rainfall”.

Early transplantation has several advantages.

Agro-economists say early-transplanted paddy mostly escapes pest attacks, which reduces additional input costs, particularly for pesticides. It also allows farmers to prepare their fields for the next crop cycle on time.

“The most important part of early transplantation is that it increases the paddy areas,” said agro expert Rajendra Uprety. “After transplantation, the next one-month period is critical for plant growth. If the rainfall is regular during the growth period, production will rise.”

Nepali farmers typically transplant paddy in June and July following the spread of the monsoon. Poor monsoon, however, can force farmers to continue sowing paddy instead of transplanting seedlings even into early September.

This year, the monsoon arrived six days late, on June 19, and its advance across key parts of western Nepal stalled for about two weeks, which delayed planting.

Regional forecasts by South Asian meteorologists had earlier suggested that Nepal was likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall this year and bring an end to three consecutive years of above-average precipitation.

Monsoon rains are critical for Nepal’s Rs6.6 trillion economy, providing nearly 80 percent of the water needed for agriculture while replenishing reservoirs and groundwater reserves.

With nearly half of the country’s farmland lacking access to irrigation, agriculture remains heavily dependent on rainfall between June and September. The monsoon is therefore regarded as a key macroeconomic factor, closely watched by policymakers, investors and consumers.

Agriculture contributes about 24 percent to Nepal’s GDP and provides employment to more than 60 percent of the population. As rural incomes largely depend on agricultural output, the strength of the monsoon has a direct impact on household spending and overall economic activity.

Experts warn that a combination of below-normal rainfall, fertiliser shortages and high fuel prices could place additional strain on Nepal’s already fragile economy and pose a challenge for the new Rastriya Swatantra Party-led government, which has pledged to achieve annual economic growth of 7 percent and raise per capita income to at least $3,000.

Madhesh, the perennially parched province, has witnessed a sharp acceleration in transplantation, and has surpassed Koshi province, although it remained the second province with the lowest paddy transplantation rate as of July 31.

According to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Madhesh received 150 mm of rainfall on Sunday and many farmers completed their remaining paddy transplantation.

According to the Department of Agriculture, paddy has been transplanted in 90.72 percent of the 385,933 hectares of farmland available for paddy cultivation in Madhesh, the province with the largest paddy-growing area. During the same period last year, the transplantation rate had reached just 57.28 percent.

“We were waiting for rain before transplanting the seedlings. This month, we received good rainfall for three to four days, which allowed us to complete transplantation at a faster rate,” said Ananta Prasad Sigdel, a farmer in Santapur village in Rautahat. “It rained heavily on Sunday. Almost all areas in my village are done with transplantation.”

Sigdel, who owns 1.5 bigha (just over one hectare) of land, said rainfall in Kathmandu and other hill areas also increases water flow in the Bagmati River, a major source of irrigation for Madhesh, particularly Rautahat.

“We have heard it has been raining daily in Kathmandu and its surrounding hill districts, filling up rivers to irrigate Tarai lands,” he said.

Farmers, however, remain concerned about the availability of urea as the time for top dressing approaches.

The Tarai accounts for 71 percent of Nepal’s total rice cultivation area, followed by the hills with 25 percent and the mountains with 4 percent.

According to the meteorological data, Nepal received around 40 percent of its average monsoon rainfall by the end of July, following widespread rains over the past few weeks, although some regions are still facing rainfall deficits.

The Department of Agriculture said paddy transplantation has been completed in Sudurpaschim province, reaching 99.79 percent of the 154,950 hectares of available paddy fields. Last year, the transplantation rate was 99.72 percent.

After Sudurpaschim, transplantation has reached 96.12 percent of the 114,524 hectares of paddy fields in Bagmati province, followed by 94.83 percent of the 301,372 hectares in Lumbini province.

In Karnali province, transplantation has reached 94.8 percent of the 43,290 hectares of available paddy fields. In Gandaki province, paddy transplantation has been completed on 92.13 percent of the 93,606 hectares available for cultivation.

Koshi province has the lowest transplantation rate, at 86.97 percent of its 276,386 hectares of paddy fields. The rate is around two percentage points lower than the transplantation rate recorded in the province during the same period last year.