OpenAI’s top researcher-turned-whistleblower, Suchir Balaji, was found dead in his San Francisco apartment on November 26 last year with a gunshot hole in the head. The previous month, he alleged that OpenAI had violated US copyright law while developing its popular ChatGPT online chatbot. Then, on January 20, DeepSeek, the Chinese AI prodigy, sent shockwaves through Silicon Valley by releasing a powerful language model rivalling OpenAI’s ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost and computational power. This exposed a vulnerability in the American narrative of technological dominance. While accusations of “AI distilling” and data theft fly back and forth, a more profound question emerges: Is the dragon on its way to surpassing the US as the global tech leader?

The DeepSeek saga is emblematic of a broader trend. China’s ambitions in technology are no longer confined to imitation. China is increasingly confident, innovative and self-reliant, from AI and semiconductors to space exploration and defence. This shift has been years in the making, fuelled by strategic investments, a burgeoning talent pool and a relentless drive to achieve technological parity with, and ultimately surpass, the West.

The US, for its part, seems caught in a reactive cycle. Export controls, sanctions and accusations of intellectual property theft have become Washington’s go-to tools. While these measures may offer temporary respite, they also risk fuelling resentment and pushing China towards greater self-sufficiency. The irony is palpable: The policies designed to contain China’s technological rise may accelerate its progress. For instance, DeepSeek’s reliance on NVIDIA chips while highlighting a current dependency also underscores China’s determination to overcome it. The domestic semiconductor industry is rapidly maturing, driven by massive investments and a national imperative to achieve chip independence. Similarly, while raising valid concerns, the controversy surrounding DeepSeek’s training data from OpenAI reveals a deeper truth: In the age of big data, the lines between legitimate inspiration and outright theft are increasingly blurred. OpenAI, after all, built its empire on vast troves of publicly available data, much of it arguably copyrighted.

However, as much as the story of DeepSeek exposes the dependence of Chinese technology on American advances, it also suggests that stopping the transnational flow of technological goods and know-how may take more than export restrictions. DeepSeek's engineers found ways to overcome Washington's efforts to stymie them. They showed they could and would do more with less, compensating for scarcity with creativity—and by any means necessary. The talent war adds another layer of complexity.

The US has attracted the brightest minds worldwide, including China, for decades. Chinese researchers and engineers have significantly contributed to US tech giants, fuelling innovation and economic growth. Yet, the current climate of suspicion and hostility towards China threatens to stem this flow of talent. Will Washington continue to welcome Chinese students and researchers, or will it succumb to fear and isolationism? This question becomes even more relevant considering Washington's recent decision to deport all illegal immigrants, a population that includes many potential tech workers. This move risks further depleting the US talent pool, particularly in STEM fields where skilled workers are already in high demand.

By pushing away valuable human capital, the US may inadvertently be weakening its own technological base. But the tech war is a talent contest at its heart and a wiser move could be for Washington to attract the best brains from China with green cards and get them to work for Silicon Valley companies rather than DeepSeek.

Meanwhile, many accomplished Chinese scientists and engineers are returning to China, lured by attractive incentives, patriotic duty and leading-edge research opportunities. China's top universities and research institutions are rapidly gaining ground, challenging the long-held supremacy of their Western counterparts. Where is this battle for tech supremacy heading? The answer, in all likelihood, is towards a multipolar world. The US will undoubtedly remain a technological powerhouse, but its dominance is no longer unchallenged.

China is rising, and a potent combination of ambition, innovation and resilience fuels this rise. The implications for the global order are profound. Technology is no longer merely a tool for economic competition but a strategic asset with far-reaching geopolitical consequences. It will revolutionise warfare, intelligence gathering and economic development. The nation that leads in AI will have a decisive advantage in shaping the 21st century.

The DeepSeek episode is a wake-up call, a reminder that the technological landscape is shifting rapidly and that complacency is no longer an option. The US needs a new strategy that goes beyond containment and embraces engagement. A winning formula involves fostering collaboration while protecting intellectual property, attracting global talent while nurturing domestic innovation and competing fiercely while seeking common ground on global challenges. This strategy must also include reassessing immigration policies and recognising immigrants' crucial role in technological advancement. There is still a long way to go before Chinese innovation truly and decisively catches up.

However, it is evident that Beijing has turned a corner and will no longer be the blind emulator or copycat but perhaps a combination of creator, innovator, and emulator. Silicon Valley will also learn lessons from DeepSeek's innovative, more efficient solutions. This tech rivalry is no less brutal than gang warfare.

In association with The Daily Star (Bangladesh) / ANN