Despite the rhetoric of decarbonising the economy and ambitious pledges made to cut emissions to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius during the annual Conference of the Parties meetings, extreme weather occurrences fueled by global warming are increasing, raising questions globally as to why the progress towards climate mitigation remains so slow. Meanwhile, with emerging facts about the consequences of rising polar temperatures, it seems like the worst is yet to come. Our efforts to fight the climate crisis are painfully lacking.

Recall the severe droughts of the last two winters. They weren't just regular droughts, as observed in the past decades, but a clear example of how climate phenomena occurring thousands of miles away have a bearing on the weather systems supporting our livelihoods and economy. The lack of winter rain has been attributed to the warming of the Indian Ocean and disruption of the Arctic polar vortex, as revealed by researchers examining the western Nepal winter drought of 2009, one of the most severe droughts in recent memory. Since then, winter droughts have been more frequent and lasted longer. With the Arctic region ceaselessly heating up four times faster than other areas, the cascading impacts on the Westerlies—responsible for bringing winter rains to our region—will undoubtedly continue to be strong. The Westerlies are also responsible for snow deposits at higher altitudes, including in the trans-Himalayan region of the country. As reported recently, farmers who rely on apple orchards as a major income source in Nepal’s northern region are already losing out as they've seen a massive drop in apple production in the last three years due to the lack of snow; its reversal seems unlikely.

Rare warming events

Rapid warming isn’t limited to the Arctic. Climate science research has revealed worrying facts from the Antarctic, too. A recent report discovered a series of rare instances of the warming of the stratosphere (the upper atmosphere about 30 km above the ground) over Antarctica. Unlike the Arctic, where such warming events are almost annual, these are uncommon in the Antarctic. Consequently, the polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere normally remains more stable. However, according to the report, on July 7, the temperature in the middle of the stratosphere, which usually hovered around -80 degrees Celsius, reached 15 degrees Celcius. It cooled briefly and then rose to 17 degrees Celsius on August 5. This record-breaking warming over the Antarctic in the last 44 years has stunned researchers. Subsequently, the warming has disrupted the Antarctic polar vortex and affected global weather patterns.

Since the explanation for such sudden warming is yet to be ascertained, it appears connected to a higher ozone concentration over the region. Researchers believe that warming occurred when the ozone from other latitudes was drawn towards the polar region, a renewed concern in climate discourse. Whatever the reason, this raises questions regarding how it might play out when viewed from a teleconnection perspective, where events in one corner of the globe affect the weather in another. Though they are poles apart and occur alternatively, it's yet to be seen if the warming of the poles and disruption of the vortex will produce any combined effect on the global weather system even more severely in future. Moreover, we must stay vigilant of any major event with a potential bearing on our weather system, like the disruption of the Arctic polar vortex suppressing the Westerlies. This should persuade us to consider what might be in store for our vital economic sectors of agriculture, tourism and energy.

Historical events

There isn’t much written about historical weather-related issues that shaped our land and sometimes demographic structure. Although such events have been recurrent, they are now more destructive and alarmingly frequent. One such incident was a mega-drought in 1919, which led to widespread crop failure and livestock deaths. Those who couldn’t grow enough to feed their families moved to India and Burma (present-day Myanmar)—perhaps contributing to the drop in Nepal's national population from 5.63 million in 1911 to 5.57 million in 1920, a fall of nearly 1.2 percent.

The historical mega-drought illustrates that the state made no effort to help people cope with the situation. People had no option but to escape the drought by moving elsewhere to start anew. A century later, the situation hasn’t changed much.

Despite several organisations at the national and local levels working on projects—many of them for decades—to address climate change together with government plans and policies, the impacts of drought, floods, declining water sources, forest fires and so on continue to rise, and so do the numbers of those impacted. Addressing these issues seems more complex because of a lack of local-level information, compounded by a limited workforce and nominal financial resources to implement appropriate climate actions.

Reviewing past events

With the increasing severity of climate impacts, we must play smart. There's a need to identify area-specific problems because climate responses aren’t always one-size-fits-all. The responses must be tailored to suit local needs for specific issues an area faces several times a year. For example, areas at higher altitudes are threatened by expanding glacial lakes occasionally resulting in Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and, more seriously, reduced snowfall, leading to increased drought. Middle hills face increased localised high-intensity rain, worsening the widespread problem of erosion, mass wasting, loss of farmlands, drying water sources, etc. The low-lying areas of the valleys and Tarai region are increasingly being affected by floods, sand casting and river bank erosion.

From a practical standpoint, locating potential GLOF sites is pretty straightforward. They can be mapped for their state of critical urgency and area of influence in case the dams break. Planning for their mitigation can be done through proven methods of reducing the water level or installing early warning systems. However, developing effective and precise methods to address increasing droughts is an entirely different issue. It’s even more challenging to address the problems of the middle hills, which are extensive and difficult to foresee for their critical urgency.

As the imminent crises develop, we have no option but to move quickly with workable coping strategies. Reviewing historical events in each area would help us understand which regions or communities within the country are at higher risk and plan accordingly for quick and effective responses with the available resources.