Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States that started on June 21 has drawn the attention of academics, policymakers and geostrategic analysts who seek to decipher the contours and what it means not just for India-US relations but the larger geopolitical configuration. Interestingly, an article in China’s Global Times put forth the view that the synergy in their bilateral economic ties aimed “primarily to slow down China's economic development” and also argued that India or any other country could not replace China’s position in the global supply chain. It is important to note that in the 2023 financial year, the US emerged as India’s largest trading partner and third largest foreign investor. This visit will be watched closely by Beijing which has always slammed India-US relations charging that it was directed against China.

Defence cooperation

India’s relationship with the US has deepened over time. It has seen an upward surge since 2005 under the presidency of George W Bush. Several convergences have enabled the two countries to take their relationship forward. The nuclear deal was, in fact, a stepping stone in furthering this relationship and shaping Indian public opinion vis-à-vis the US. In 2008, the US lobbied hard to provide a one-time waiver to India for civil nuclear trade. Though India is not a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the US, in 2018, placed India in the License Exception Strategic Trade Authorisation (STA-1) list that will entitle it to license-free exports, re-exports and transfers while adhering to the group's norms.

Both countries have burgeoning defence ties and they have agreed to cooperate in advanced technology. Many US companies are producing goods under the Make in India tag that the government of India is promoting. Defence technology has emerged as an important area as India looks to diversify its import sources for high-end weapons. India also seeks joint production as it will provide access to technology and boost defence research and development. The US also sees an opportunity to reduce India’s dependency on Russian defence equipment. Intelligence sharing has been an important component of defence cooperation. The media reported that the US provided intelligence to India and advanced drones to monitor Chinese troop intrusions in Tawang when India and China clashed along the disputed border last year.

The two countries have constituted the India-US ministerial annual 2+2 dialogue between their respective foreign and defence ministers since 2018. Trade between the two countries has seen an upward surge as India is a major defence partner of the US. They have signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement which will enable India to use its existing US origin platforms. In 2016, they signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement which is considered a landmark deal. Since 2007, the two countries have been engaged in the Malabar naval exercise that now includes Japan and Australia to enhance interoperability, that is key to maritime cooperation.

Bilateral counter-terrorism cooperation has been a significant milestone from India’s perspective. Since 2017, the two countries have instituted dialogue to pursue policy to designate individuals and groups under the UN Security Council’s 1267 Sanction Committee. The US has actively supported the banning of terrorist groups and their leaders like Hafiz Saeed and Zaki-ur-RehmanLakhvi of Lashkar-e-Toiba, Masood Azhar of Jaish-e-Mohammad and such other terrorists that Pakistan sponsors to conduct terrorism inside India while China opposed the listing several times before coming around to the decision. On June 17, China blocked the listing of Lashkar-e-Taiba “commander” Sajid Mir, who was involved in the Mumbai terror attack.

Among the various facets of bilateral relations, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific rankled China. The US defines “Quad as a force for global good for the Indo-Pacific region”. While both countries have supported a free and open Indo-Pacific and rule-based order, given China’s increasing belligerent position in the South China Sea, Taiwan, India is more concerned about expanding its strategic footprint as an emerging power. Both the US and India share the same concerns regarding a rising China and its implications on global geopolitics. Yet, India was reluctant to join any alliance in this strategic contest between the US and China and has always maintained that the Quad is not directed against any country.

In spite of India’s cautious stance, China has followed a policy of gradual intrusion at several places on the contested line of actual control (LAC) in violation of its bilateral agreement. It has always been critical of growing close cooperation between India and the US and has done little to assuage India’s concerns over the LAC. Many in India’s strategic community believe that it is a pressure strategy that China has adopted. China’s actions across the LAC and its strategic alliance with Pakistan to counter India have contributed to India’s strategic embrace of the US. In 2017, following the Doklam standoff, India became more open to its partnership within the Quad and the dialogue between the partners was upgraded from undersecretary level to ministerial level in 2019.

While the Indo-Pacific remains a crucial lynchpin between India and the US, the Quad countries, including Japan and Australia, are working to put in place a resilient supply chain, cooperation in maritime domain, space, climate change, health and cyber security.

Overcoming divergences

After President Joe Biden came to power, India’s relations with the US have received new synergy. But several divergences exist between the two countries. The two have different positions on Russia’s war with Ukraine. There is an expectation by the US that India needs to reduce its defence dependence on Russia. However, given India’s strategic relevance to the US, it allowed a waiver on India’s order of five S-400 long-range missile systems from Russia which is crucial for India’s security.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the US will strengthen the existing relationship and pave the path for more convergence on global issues. The relationship between the two countries has graduated since 1998 when the US imposed sanctions. China will remain an important glue in the bilateral strategic partnership. The bond between India and the US has now reached a stage with several interlocking interests and convergences of strategic objectives that will help the two countries to forge a mutually beneficial relationship.