The monsoon forecast for this year doesn’t look promising. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, a super El Niño is likely to develop between June and September. Some say it has officially begun. El Niño is a weather phenomenon that occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal, affecting global weather patterns including the Indian monsoon which is responsible for bringing summer rain to the subcontinent. El Niño years tend to make monsoons less reliable.

In Nepal, there is about a 40 percent chance of the monsoon season being slightly dry throughout the country between the critical months of June and August. There is an even greater chance that the middle hills and the eastern Tarai may experience a moderately dry monsoon season. The areas around the districts of Panchthar, Tehrathum and Dhankuta, which are already water deficit, may suffer the most if the oncoming monsoon period proves to be as dry as forecast. A similar situation is also expected to occur in the high mountains in other parts of the country which have already recorded higher temperatures. Unfortunately, below average monsoon doesn't mean we won’t still have to contend with floods and landslides. We may have pockets where heavy rains could cause damage to lives and assets.

Unpredictability of impacts

Even though the forecast warns of a slightly to moderately drier monsoon season, what we need to understand is that the impacts are likely to be far more damaging than expected. To understand this discrepancy in the severity of climate impacts, we need to remember the geographical and topographical diversity of the country. Take, for example, any cross-section of the landscape from the Tarai plains to the high Himalaya, one would pass through 18 ecological zones, from tropical to alpine conditions and all the transition zones in between. The same cross-section would also represent areas drained by three types of river systems, from snow-fed ones originating in the snowy mountains to their tributaries originating in the middle mountains, and small ephemeral rivers that originate in the Chure hills. These rivers have their own significance in providing various ecological services and supporting the diverse subcultures of Nepali society. Therefore, the impacts of a below average monsoon will not be the same all over the country, but are likely to be as varied as the ecological zones themselves.

Though an El Niño period is generally believed to weaken the monsoon, there may be conditions in which we may get normal or even above average rainfall despite its presence. How it will impact the monsoon mostly depends on the way the subcontinent heats up during the season. Since we're hitting record high temperatures, the current El Niño is expected to be more intense. Higher temperatures sometimes lead to the strengthening of a typical wind system that prevails over the Indian subcontinent—the North-East Jet stream. When the jet stream is strong enough to neutralise the effects of El Niño, we get a normal or even above average monsoon; however, if the jet stream remains weak, El Niño's impact will be strong and we will record a weak monsoon. Nevertheless, the most likely outcome would be a below normal monsoon, and that is what we need to prepare ourselves for during an El Niño year.

The purpose of monsoon forecasts is to inform governments at all levels to help them prepare in advance for any and all eventualities. Since the problems we are likely to face are immediate and require well-planned responses, the responsibility of addressing the issue lies primarily with the provincial and local governments. The federal government has a role in generating knowledge and understanding of the scale of vulnerability to a particular impact, and providing guidance and back-up support to provinces and local governments in devising appropriate plans. As the planting season for monsoon-dependent summer crops is right around the corner, we need to identify who would be most affected in which ecological zone in what ways, and what would be the optimal contingency plans to avert or mitigate the impacts in those areas.

Unfortunately, the federal government seems to have disregarded the forecast altogether. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology had already predicted a below average monsoon this year but the budget failed to acknowledge this potentially damaging oncoming situation. It didn't go beyond the usual rhetoric about the government’s response such as mainstreaming climate change in the programme and carrying out scientific studies on climate impacts. The economic survey report for the current fiscal year published prior to the budget announcement, however, acknowledged that progress in mainstreaming climate change in policies and programmes remains minimal.

Changed context

If mainstreaming climate change is indeed a major priority, it should largely be integrated in the programmes of the local governments because that's where they would be most effective and, constitutionally, local governments are responsible for implementing all local level development programmes. However, there is a huge gap between what is expected of local governments and their existing capability to mainstream climate change.

Except for a broad generic understanding of the problem of floods, drought, and other natural disasters, the knowledge and skills gained through years of collective learning were unfortunately impaired or lost when the country plunged into a decade-long insurgency and subsequent political upheaval.

The years of instability discouraged a generation of researchers who had been attempting to understand local problems and find innovative solutions to address them. Water management, bioengineering, green roads, micro hydro and mushroom farming are some key areas which had produced local leaders to take them forward and develop a communal knowledge base. Unfortunately, we’ve lost most of them. Add to this the earthquakes of 2015 and the Covid-19 pandemic, and any potential progress was further stifled.

Local governments across Nepal are in the process of formulating their respective budgets which will be announced on June 25. For now, a desirable outcome within the short term would be to provide information regarding expected weather generated by high science, where the federal government has a big role to play, for localised areas to help local governments marry this high science data with the skill and knowledge of communities to prepare better plans so that people can take appropriate actions as first responders when needed.