Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney departs for China on Tuesday, where he will discuss trade and international security at a time when Canada faces uncertain relations with the US due to a trade war and annexation threats from President Donald Trump.

It is the first visit to Beijing by a Canadian prime minister since 2017 and could mark a critical shift in ties between the two countries as Canada seeks new trade and security partnerships.

Carney agreed to visit China last October when he and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South Korea. It was an encounter that offered no breakthroughs but suggested potential for deeper ties after a fractious relationship under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which had soured after Canada arrested the chief financial officer of Chinese firm Huawei in 2018.

This time, experts expect some deals - or at least promises of future deals - to be struck. Senior Canadian officials said Carney would sign a number of memoranda that are still under discussion.

Greg MacEachern, a former senior Liberal ministerial adviser, said he expected the trip would yield results beyond mere symbolism.

“When the Prime Minister is invited to China, it is not for window dressing,” he said, adding the trip would be monitored in Washington.

“There’s a political risk this could upset President Trump, but Prime Minister Carney clearly wants to send the message that Canada is open for business. And the Canadian government has made the calculation that it’s worth it.”

Crude, Canola in Focus 

Deals could include more exports of Canadian crude to China, according to a source informed of the discussions.

Canada exports some 90% of its oil to the United States but a planned increase in US oil imports from Venezuela could decrease US demand for Canadian crude.

Senior Canadian officials said they expected progress but not the definitive elimination of Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola exports during the visit.

China looks forward to deepening mutual trust with Canada during the January 14-17 visit, the Chinese foreign ministry said.

“Both Canada and China want to signal their good intentions, so they each need to give away something,” said Lynette Ong, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto.

China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in August, escalating a year-long trade dispute that began with Ottawa’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports a year earlier. The tariffs have virtually eliminated all canola exports to China, which was previously the biggest export market for Canadian canola.

Ong said the EV tariff was introduced during the administration of former US President Joe Biden and the recent rupture in Canada’s relationship with the US made keeping it unnecessary, because alignment with Washington had become less of a priority for Ottawa. China is Canada’s second-biggest trading partner after the US

Doug Ford, premier of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province and auto hub, urged Carney not to “back down,” saying the EV tariffs should only be lifted if China opens a manufacturing facility in Ontario.

Colin Hornby, head of the Manitoba farm group Keystone Agricultural Producers, said he did not expect an agreement to eliminate the canola tariffs during the trip but was optimistic something could happen in the coming weeks or months.

Concerns about National security, Human rights

Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, warned more cooperation with China in sectors like AI and critical minerals could jeopardize Canadian security, however.

“There are clear red lines not to be crossed,” she said.

Canada has previously voiced concerns about human rights violations in China, including the jailing of pro-democracy media mogul Jimmy Lai, the secret execution of four Canadians in China last year and past interference in Canadian elections.

Cheuk Kwan, co-chair of the Toronto Association for Democracy in China, said he hoped Canada would “not fall into the trap of appeasing China just to secure bilateral trade agreements.”

Two Canadian Members of Parliament said on Monday they were ending a trip to democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, early this week ahead of Carney’s visit to China to avoid confusion with Canada’s foreign policy.

China’s plans to welcome Carney at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, arguably the country’s grandest government building, may be part of a “charm offensive,” said Joseph Torigian, an expert in Chinese politics at American University.

Torigian suggested China might be looking to burnish its global reputation after the US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month.

“The Chinese might make a case during bilateral meetings with Canada about how unreliable the US is as a partner and how dangerous they are,” Torigian said. “Whereas China is willing to help Canada expand its trade relationships outside of its hemisphere if the Canadians are willing to play ball.”