As Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal decides to face the House of Representatives instead of resigning, the CPN-UML, which is all set to lead the next coalition with the Nepali Congress’ backing, has urged him not to take any decision that will have lasting consequences.

The UML, which until Wednesday was the largest party in the Dahal-led government, withdrew its support to him after the second largest party signed a deal with the Congress on Monday midnight. The party also recalled its ministers from the Dahal Cabinet on Wednesday.

The prime minister has approved the resignations of all eight UML ministers. According to a statement issued by the President's Office, Dahal now holds their portfolios. After the UML pulled out, the Dahal government lost its majority in the House.

“Since the government has been reduced to a minority, we urged the government not to take any decision that will have far-reaching consequences,” UML General Secretary Shankar Pokhrel said in a statement.

With the Nepali Congress and the UML agreeing to form a new government, Prime Minister Dahal is unlikely to win the vote of trust, said Pokhrel.

The UML also urged the prime minister to extend its support to forming a ‘national consensus’ government, to be led by UML chair KP Sharma Oli.

However, the Congress and the UML are not against the prime minister seeking the trust of the House as per the constitutional provision. Even if Dahal goes for the floor test, they want him not to take too long but to complete the process within a few days.

Article 100 (2) of the constitution states, “If the political party which the prime minister represents is divided or a political party in coalition government withdraws its support, the prime minister shall table a motion in the House of Representatives for a vote of confidence within 30 days.”

Four ministers from Rastriya Swatantra Party had reached the prime minister’s official residence at Baluwatar on Thursday morning to tender their resignations. However, Dahal convinced them not to resign and they returned without quitting.

The RSP ministers said they changed their minds after the prime minister sought their support as he plans to go for a vote of confidence in the House.

That made the Congress and UML leaders suspect that the prime minister could be conspiring to derail the deal by creating an environment of mistrust between them.

However, the Congress and the UML have alternative plans if the prime minister holds on to his position and goes for a floor test.

Gagan Thapa, a Congress general secretary, said if the prime minister does not resign within a few days, they will initiate an alternative process to remove him.

Thapa also warned Dahal not to employ any tactic, as his days are numbered. Addressing a party function in Itahari of Sunsari district, Thapa said Dahal’s unstable character had prompted the Congress and the UML to replace him.

After being relegated to the minority, the prime minister may attempt to derail the new government formation process, Thapa said. “But any such attempt will be bad for himself. I am convinced that the prime minister will step down within a couple of days. But if he tries to buy time, we will initiate the new course of forming the government within 4–5 days.”

So what plan do the leaders of the two largest parties have to oust Dahal in case he doesn’t resign? According to Min Bishwakarma, the head of the Congress publicity department, if the prime minister refuses to resign, they will file an application at the President's Office, drawing the attention of the head of state to the minority status of the prime minister.

The President cannot announce a new government formation immediately, but he can forward the application to the Speaker asking the latter to verify if the government has a majority in the House. Then the Speaker will arrange for the floor test and see if the prime minister still commands a majority, Bishwakarma said.

“The floor test will show that the prime minister does not hold the majority,” Bishwakarma said. “The Speaker will write back to the President that Prime Minister Dahal no longer commands the majority in the House. Based on this examination, the President can call for new government formation.”

This could be a new parliamentary exercise in Nepal.

Though the prime minister is delaying his exit, his options are limited, Congress and UML leaders say.

“He [Dahal] is trying to manoeuvre but he is not going to succeed,” Pradeep Gyawali, a deputy secretary general of the UML, said. “The prime minister is still trying to take the country towards a new government formation as per Article 76(3) but that is not possible.”

As per the agreement between Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba and Oli, the new ‘national consensus’ government will be formed as per Article 76 (2) of the constitution in which the lawmaker who musters a majority with the support of two or more parties in the House of Representatives is appointed the prime minister.

But Prime Minister Dahal may have a different game plan: that the cycle of government formation under Article 76 (2) is over after he quits, so the President should invoke Article 76 (3) to initiate the new government formation in which the President appoints as prime minister the parliamentary party leader of the party with the largest number of House members. In this scenario, Congress President Deuba will become the prime minister.

However, the Congress party stands against this. A meeting of the party’s Central Work Execution Committee on Wednesday endorsed the agreement reached between Deuba and Oli and made it clear that the new government would be formed as per Article 76 (2).

On the question of why the prime minister had refused to quit, a Maoist minister pointed to the annual budget that has yet to be endorsed by the National Assembly. “How can the prime minister, under whose leadership the budget was tabled and approved by the lower house, quit without the upper house passing it? Would such a move be morally correct?” the minister asked.

He said that the prime minister would quit or seek a trust vote in the House as soon as the Assembly endorses the budget.

The majority office bearers of the Maoist Centre have advised the prime minister to quit the government after addressing the House. “If he follows our advice, he will quit the government on Sunday by addressing the House,” the minister said.

Govinda Acharya, press adviser to the prime minister, said it was not decided when the prime minister will seek the confidence vote. “He is consulting with party leaders, ministers, and legal experts,” Acharya said.

During his meeting with Rastriya Swatantra Party ministers on Thursday morning, the prime minister asked them to wait for some more days before leaving the government.

Four RSP ministers—Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane, Labour Minister Dol Prasad Aryal, Youth and Sports Minister Birajbhakta Shrestha and Education Minister Sumana Shrestha—had reached Baluwatar with their resignations.

But they returned without resigning. “Our ministers didn’t submit their resignations after the prime minister sought our support,” RSP Chief Whip Santosh Pariyar said. “We have advised the prime minister to initiate the vote of confidence process soon.”