I am not an expert in international relations, but as a student of political science, I keep more than a common reader’s interest in global politics. I was deeply interested in the US presidential election, and an article of mine entitled Hip-hip Hillary that was published in these pages in March last year had noted that Donald Trump’s eccentric rhetoric made him the least desirable person to win. I was not alone in predicting that Hillary would win. But, defying the world’s prediction, Trump was elected the 45th US President.

Trump’s rhetoric focussed on making America great again, stopping the entry of extremist Muslims into the US, building a wall along the US-Mexico border and withdrawing US involvement on several international fronts. Of the four, making America great again was the only one that did not offend anyone. America had been fairly isolated until World War I, but ever since it was dragged into WW II due to Japanese aggression in Pearl Harbour, it has been at the forefront of world politics.

Business and politics

Trump has been a successful businessman, but he is entering politics as a novice. In business, there is the supremacy of the master (owner) of an enterprise, but in politics, a number of persons, institutions and principles are involved all of which influence the team leader. The head of a government is not the same as the head of a business enterprise.

Trump must have thought that, if elected US President, he would have the uppermost hand in governance and he would be free to use his will as he saw fit. That would have made him the most dangerous Commander-in-Chief of the US Army. He was not only opposed by his rival candidates but by many leaders of his own Republican party. His victory may have given him the false notion that he has surpassed all hurdles and is now free to act as he pleases. So he has started behaving as if he has triumphed over the whole world. His first decision was to withdraw from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal. He issued a decree banning entry of people from a number of Muslim countries. As Mexico rejected his proposal to make it pay for the border wall, he decided to impose a customs tariff on imports from Mexico to pay for the wall. In short, he has started the process to create an isolated and ‘great’ America.

But politics is not a game of cards where you have the option of using your trump card whenever you like. Trump’s decree to ban certain people from entering America has been rejected by the court as unconstitutional. His appeal against the court decision has also been rejected. His first nominee as the attorney general refused to implement that order, for which he had to fire her. He could not stand by his rhetoric of withdrawing support to NATO. His reluctance to honour the agreement by his predecessor Obama to accept 1,250 refugees from Australia has alienated an ally. The hitherto warm US-Australian relations have become chilly. The Speaker of the House of Commons in the UK has opposed the proposal to let Trump address its session. Trump might soon realise that the vacuum created by his decision to withdraw from the TPP will soon be filled by China, the potential US rival in world trade. In sum, Trump has to realise sooner or later that it is not easy to trump the world.  Election rhetoric to influence common voters is one thing, but facing and dealing with the real world is something else.

Internal and external constraints

The US political system is based on the theory of separation of power. The President is the head of the executive branch, but the Congress (legislature) does not fall under the President’s jurisdiction. And the judiciary is independent of both the executive and legislative wings. There are a number of checks and balances that glue the American state together. For example, many of the President’s nominees require the endorsement of the Senate, the Upper House of Congress. The President’s budget proposals need the support of the Senate as well as the House of Representatives, the Lower House of Congress. The President appoints the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, but the Chief justice presides over the Joint Session of Congress that can impeach the President. There are established rules, procedures and precedents that need to be followed to enforce any new proposal. All these help constrain the US President’s tendency to become a dictator.

There are external constraints too. In today’s globalised world, there are various international agreements, conventions, treaties, charters, precedents, institutional systems like the UN and different kinds of moral obligations that need to be complied with in order to push through new proposals. One needs the endorsement of close allies, partners and institutions. Then there are old or potential rival powers that keep one in check. For example, the Soviet Union always stood in the way of the US hegemony. In the ongoing Syrian war, Russian President Putin has played a major role in stopping the removal of Syrian President Assad from power.

Trump tried to woo Putin during the election campaign. That gave Putin access to influence an eternal foe. He is said to have undermined Hillary’s campaign by hacking her emails. Trump denies that for obvious reasons. But he is yet to realise the potential threat that Putin poses.

The present day world is not a game of cards to be trumped by Donald Trump. I want to see him bound by the rule of law and international norms and become a refined person by the pushes and pulls of the need to glue together a divided world, instead of polarising it further.

Sharma is a political analyst