When the results of the second Constituent Assembly (CA) election last year came in, the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML were jubilant at their impressive victory, interpreting their received mandate as the people’s endorsement of their political line. They went further, proclaiming that the people had mandated that the first and second parties join hands in the government and the constitution-drafting process. The UCPN (Maoist), on the other hand, refused to join the CA, claiming widespread election fraud by the state. But voting rigging was just a pretext. The UCPN (Maoist) had seemingly concluded that there was no meaning to joining a CA where the NC-UML held a majority, as the chances that the Maoist agenda would be incorporated into the new constitution appeared slim.

Thus, the course of the second CA began with a lot of skepticism and mistrust among the major parties. The ruling parties were doubtful of UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Prachanda’s commitment to the constitution-drafting process while the opposition assumed the NC-UML would push through a majoritarian statute. A year has since passed without much to show, the constitution-drafting process has been confined to procedural aspects and the parties’ debates have been marked by skepticism, a lack of trust, and inflexibility. But as the January 22 deadline draws closer, there is increasing pressure on the major political forces to adopt flexibility and strike a compromise on contentious issues.

Two-thirds majority

Recently, a joint proposal by the ruling NC-UML coalition on contentious issues of the constitution reportedly drew the support of a two-thirds majority (402) in the House. Now, they want to table their proposal before the full CA House through the official channel of the Political Dialogue and Consensus Committee (PDCC), led by senior Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai. Though they are well aware that consensus is paramount for the new constitution, they want to table their proposal at CA at any cost. They believe that this will put pressure on the opposition parties to come to a compromise within the periphery of their proposal. According to constitutional provisions, a two-thirds majority is required to promulgate a new constitution, so if the proposal is tabled before the CA and passed, it will gain legal and constitutional legitimacy.

The NC and UML are not in a hurry to reach compromise with the opposition because there are still more than two months left for the January 22 deadline, and they have the required two-third votes to pass the constitution. The ruling parties believe that the UCPN (Maoist) and Madhes-based parties will come to a compromise as they do not have other alternatives.

And this is the very reason the opposition parties want to block the proposal at the PDCC at any cost. Before the fourth extension of the PDCC’s deadline to reach consensus, parties, including the UCPN (Maoist), had agreed to present all party positions before the full House. However, the latter objected after the NC and UML came up with a joint proposal.  

Opposition interests

The opposition parties have a different reading on the ongoing constitution process. Though the NC-UML might command two-third votes, the Maoists and Madhesis are vital forces of the post-2006 political course and without their consensus, a new constitution cannot be promulgated. They believe that even the international community will put pressure on the ruling parties to accommodate them. So, they are not willing to adopt flexibility right now.        

Opposition party leaders also claim that their street protest, announced in opposition to the joint proposal, is gradually gaining ground and will put pressure on the ruling parties to reach compromise. But like the ruling parties, the opposition too is not flexible on contentious issues, except the number of provinces. Due to his alliance with the CPN-Maoist, the Madhes-based and Janajati parties, Prachanda alone cannot push for compromise. So on the one hand, Dahal is assuring the ruling parties that he is ready for a compromise while on the other, he is publicly supporting radical agendas on which the ruling parties will never agree.

Additionally, Prachanda is keenly observing undercurrents inside the CPN-Maoist, which is on the verge of a split. Netra Bikram Chand is preparing for another round of conflict while Chairman Mohan Baidya and senior leaders Ram Bahadur Thapa and CP Gajurel are against Chand’s hardline stance. Dahal is calculating that once the CPN-Maoist splits, some veterans will rejoin the UCPN (Maoist) and this will boost his party strength. A few days ago, in an interaction with journalists, Prachanda even went so far as to say that his party has no ideological differences with the CPN-Maoist. Prachanda’s strategy is astute, given that Baburam Bhattarai, his deputy, has already announced the formation of a separate party after the promulgation of the constitution.

Power sharing

Before agreeing to the constitution, major political actors also want to guarantee their stake in post-constitution power sharing. Though, this has yet to figure into three-party meetings, Bhattarai, CA Chairman Subas Nembang and a few second-rung leaders have publicly said that the issue of power sharing is a major issue that needs to be settled, along with constitution drafting.

But post-constitution power sharing is primarily an issue between the NC and UML, as they command an almost two-third majority in the House. And the NC has already agreed to handover leadership of the government to the UML once the constitution is promulgated. But the opposition parties obviously want a stake in the government as it will perform a vital task—the election of the new president and vice-president.

As remote as it may seem, the only real option for the parties at this stage is to strike a compromise. Once the two sides’ pressure tactics and shows of strength have passed, the parties will need to reach consensus. Ruling parties should make the utmost effort to reach out to the opposition until the very last moment, refraining from pushing through a vote. The opposition parties too must not provoke the situation through threats and street protests. It is a delicate balancing act that both the ruling and opposition parties will need to play.

Bhattarai is with the political desk at the Post