For any political observer attending the UCPN (Maoist) gatherings, the displays of public anger against attempts to partition society through divisive rhetoric was visible, which the leaders probably couldn’t measure from their podiums. Voters seemed unhappy with the way politics operated in Kathmandu. But more overarching was the feeling of existential insecurity for a large segment of the population from across the political and ethnic spectrum. This finally translated into votes for the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML, both of which organised powerful decentralised election campaigns, the opposite of what the UCPN (Maoist) did.

Driven by the middle

But the election was certainly not only about the NC and UML, even though they have reaped the early benefits. The resurgence of these two political parties, which represent the democratic centre of Nepali politics, indicates the rise of a fresh political process driven by an emerging middle class. This is going to be at the heart of the political re-alignment process in the coming years.

Nepal’s middle class was first quantified in 2010 by the Asian Development Bank, which then put the size of this segment at 23 percent, about 6.5 million by today’s count. The population falling within the consumption zone of Rs 150—Rs 1,500 per person per day in 2005 and with purchasing power parity was termed the middle class. Although economists pointed to the possibility of a vibrant economy out of the new figures, political experts were at a loss to explain its implications in politics and society.

Interpreting the outcome of first Constituent Assembly in 2008, experts had claimed that the untested Maoists had capitalised on the middle class desire for change. The returns of the November 19 election have probably added another part to the answer they were looking for: the middle class is now trying different alternatives. And in the two months after the election, support for Dr Govinda KC’s fast-unto-death protesting political interference at the Institute of Medicine must have helped untie another knot: the middle class is growing and it is angry. Such public anger, if directed towards institutions in power, possesses the might to cause much upheaval.

Median and growing

With increased access to remittance and more than one family member now contributing to household income, the very poor segment of the Nepali population is becoming a smaller minority. Several surveys conducted by multiple agencies, including the National Planning Commission, assert that the number of people living below the poverty line currently stands at 25 percent and is continuing to decrease.  

Given Nepal’s strategic location between two emerging world powers, these statistics could change more favourably and at a faster pace. On January 19, the World Economic Forum published its report, entitled ‘Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014’. Catalysed by developments mainly in China, India, the Association for South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and South Korea, “The explosion of Asia’s middle class is stunning,” wrote Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, in his analysis of the report. Furthermore, the report projects that by 2020, the Asian middle class will grow to 1.75 billion people, three times larger than its current size of 500 million.

The fact that the top Asian progress zones are either Nepal’s neighbours or remittance catchment regions gives Nepal every reason to be more optimistic at this unprecedented wealth creation. Even under a sluggish government unwilling to see through this change, the ‘non-poor’ Nepali population will constitute a decisive

majority by the time of the next elections come around while the number of actual poor will fall below 18 percent. This prediction could become even better if some semblance of political stability were to return to the country.

So what does this mean for politics?

The answer is simple. Pandering only to the poor will not guarantee electoral success. Although it might feel nice to be seen as supporting the underdogs, in competitive politics, only a party capable of engaging every segment of the population will come out as the ultimate winner.

In the past, things were different. The Nepali middle class was busy trying to put daal-bhat on the table. The money flowed among the handful at the top while the votes stayed with the large bottom. This meant that the middle class had neither the money nor the votes to have a say in politics. Its present day anger stems from this experience of insufficiency and deprivation.

In normal times, the middle class is a peaceful sleeping dragon. It is an idealistic class and even loves nationality. In difficult times, its fearlessness tends to outgrow its number. It wants substance over empty rhetoric. And during elections, it constitutes the largest proportion of swing votes and is not so easily influenced by false promises.

The middle and the poor

However, this is by no means an argument to overlook the concerns of the poor. It is rather a call for Nepal’s political parties to reshape and re-articulate their policies. Poverty reduction is definitely the most important task for any government but it must be noted that the needs of the bottom are similar to the needs of the middle: jobs, growth, stability and democracy.

Make no mistake, no political party can survive in Nepal any longer by only advocating for the rights of a particular class and especially ignoring the middle. Those promoting wealth-envy and demonising

wealth-creators could meet their doom sooner than later. And more heartening is the fact that the non-poor cuts across parochial caste and ethnic lines, reducing the chances of conflict and war.

Any political party unwilling or unable to reconcile its policies towards these characters of the economic middle is going to be dumped in the dustbin of history, and this will happen with greater intensity now. The consolidation of an economic middle will finally bring about a stable democratic centre. This probably explains the Congress and UML victory in the elections. Having inflicted an election defeat and a boycott on themselves, both the Maoist parties will do their future a favour by attempting to adjust to this change. The new mantra for them must be: shift towards the centre.

Dhakal is a Kathmandu based political analyst