Erratic and deficient rainfall and depleted groundwater levels could have led to the drought conditions affecting the Madhesh province in the south-eastern Terai region, a new report by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), stated.

According to a study carried out jointly by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development and ICIMOD, which mapped 21 districts in the southern belt of the country, focusing specifically on rice cultivation, delayed rainfall along with depleting groundwater levels and gaps in water supply infrastructure could lead to an acute water crisis for the province in the coming years.

Earlier in July, due to the severity of drought conditions, the government declared the province ‘drought–stricken’. The federal government had allocated approximately Rs170 million (US$1.2 million) for small irrigation systems such as shallow tubewells, which bring groundwater to the surface using suction lift pumps.

Water deficit also impacted the production of rice, a key crop cultivated in the province, and districts including Dhanusha, Mahottari, and Siraha would also be hugely impacted.

“The shortfall of rice doesn’t only imply a challenge to food security in the present drought context, but also long-term challenges to nutrition, well-being and affordability of food grains for vulnerable households in the coming years,” said Chet Bahadur Roka, senior statistics officer and chief of the Agriculture Section at the Agriculture Ministry.

To avoid this scenario, they suggest farmers explore diversifying their crops and have a system of early-warning advisories in place to better prepare farmers.

The agriculture ministry had also reported reduced paddy transplantation rates in July, which stood at 51.82 percent as compared to 92 percent during the period last year.

A shortfall of nearly 450,000 metric tons of rice is expected, leading to approximately a 10 percent dip in national rice supply.

The province has also been facing a water shortage due to depleting groundwater levels–the root of which has been traced back to the Chure hills.

“A degraded Chure region means cascading risks downstream, as seen in the province. Given that it’s an ecologically sensitive region, adopting and reviving nature-based solutions, including measures like springs, wells and ponds, would help in reducing these impacts, which are rather difficult to perceive,” said Saswata Sanyal, Disaster Risk Reduction lead at ICIMOD.

The report shows that existing gaps in infrastructure, including in irrigation networks, canals and household water sources such as hand pumps, mean that the impact of the drought has become an acute crisis.

“Such adverse conditions always impact the most vulnerable and marginalised areas disproportionately,” said Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Cryosphere and Water Lead at ICIMOD. “We are seeing a pronounced impact of climate change on women, children and socially disadvantaged groups.”

Experts contributing to the study have also urged that while smaller-term measures like shifting to less water-intensive crops are advised, there is a critical need for longer-term planning.

Such initiatives include taking a watershed approach, a framework which considers the interconnectedness of land, water, and other resources to achieve sustainable resource management. In this case, upstream changes in the Chure hills include ensuring mining in the region is sustainable.

“Investing in watershed management planning is also crucial for long-term water security as well as reducing the scope of cascading hazards in the region,” reads the report.