Mithilesh Kumar Thakur’s mother is a worried woman. With her son’s wedding set for November, the per tola price of gold crossing a record Rs200,000 has turned what should have been a celebratory preparation into an uneasy financial burden.

“We are astounded by the gold price—bang on the eve of my son’s wedding. We had planned on buying gold during Tihar, but now we do not know how high it can still go,” said Jaya Devi Thakur, who lives with her family in Baneshwar.

The Thakurs had planned on buying six tolas of the yellow metal. But as prices climb almost daily, they now think they will have to make do with four. “We cannot imagine a wedding without gold. It is part of our culture, but these sky-high prices have forced us to cut back,” Jaya Devi said.

Her dilemma is shared by thousands of Nepali families this wedding season. In many communities, it is customary for the groom’s family to present a complete set of gold jewellery to the bride, a practice that can now run into millions of rupees. Engagements too are traditionally sealed with the gift of gold ornaments.

For middle-class families, who usually buy five to six tolas for a wedding, the cost has become staggering. With the price of gold jewellery—including making charges—ranging from Rs220,000 to Rs230,000 a tola, for many, the burden is too heavy.

As a result, there is growing hesitation among buyers, and jewellers report a sharp slowdown in business. Many people today are turning to gold-plated ornaments, which give the appearance of real gold at a fraction of the cost.

The psychological barrier of Rs200,000 was breached on Friday when gold added Rs1,200 a tola in a single day, reaching Rs200,600 per 11.66 grams in the local market, according to the Federation of Gold and Silver Dealers’ Association. In just one week, the metal gained Rs5,400 per tola. In the past 32 months, the price has doubled.

Globally, gold continues its relentless rally, fuelled by uncertainty. Spot gold stood at $3,407.14 an ounce on Friday, according to Reuters, after briefly touching $3,423.16 the day before—its highest since late July. In August alone, bullion has gained 3.6 percent.

Gold traditionally strengthens when political and economic risks rise, as investors flee to “safe haven” assets. Analysts say this time the drivers are multiple: geopolitical conflicts, concerns over rising US debt levels, questions about the independence of the US Federal Reserve after an attempted dismissal of one of its governors, and a softer dollar.

JP Morgan Research projects the rally to continue, with average prices expected to hit $3,675 per ounce by late 2025 and climb toward $4,000 by mid-2026.

Metals Focus, a London-based precious metals consultancy, said new highs are likely before the end of this year.

“The Nepali market sentiment is likely to remain weak as local prices surpass Rs200,000, and it will take time for consumers to adjust to these higher levels,” said Adarsh Diwe, a Mumbai-based consultant at Metals Focus who tracks South Asian bullion markets. “We also have to monitor price volatility as it discourages consumers from buying.”

The government’s recent decision to remove the two percent luxury tax on jewellery sales has brought some relief. The tax, introduced in the current fiscal year’s budget, had made jewellery even more expensive, adding about Rs4,000 extra per tola for consumers. After protests by bullion traders, the government scrapped it effective August 18.

Even so, analysts expect jewellery demand in Nepal to drop sharply this year. Metals Focus is projecting a double-digit year-on-year fall for 2025.

Jewellers confirm the downturn.

“In the peak wedding season in the past, we used to transact up to 70 kilograms of gold daily. Now, even with the upcoming festivals and marriages, we expect [to deal with] 30 kilograms at most a day,” said Dharma Sundar Bajracharya, vice president of the Federation of Gold and Silver Dealers’ Association.

He added that the number of customers selling gold rose when the price was between Rs191,000 and Rs199,000, but with the latest jump, sales of old jewellery are slowing as well. Instead, more people are exchanging existing ornaments rather than buying new ones.

The decline was visible during Teej too, once a busy festival for gold shops. “After Covid, when prices began climbing steeply, sales during Teej started to drop. This year, with prices crossing Rs200,000, customers were hesitant,” Bajracharya said.

Nepal imported 1,622 kilograms of gold worth Rs19.94 billion in the last fiscal year, mostly from the UAE and Turkey, with smaller quantities from Qatar. But with prices now at record highs, traders expect demand to stay muted despite the festive and wedding seasons.

Beyond cultural compulsion, many Nepalis view gold as a safe financial investment. Families traditionally buy the yellow metal during festivals like Teej, Dashain and Tihar, when employees get bonuses and when it is considered auspicious. But the sluggish economy has weakened household purchasing power, compounding the impact of soaring bullion rates.

The government has made periodic efforts to discourage smuggling and facilitate legal imports.

Customs duty on gold, which stood at 20 percent last fiscal year, has now been halved to 10 percent. Traders say this brings Nepal closer to India, where combined taxes total about nine percent (six percent customs duty and three percent Goods and Services Tax).

The one percent difference could help reduce smuggling across the open border. Currently, gold in India is trading around Rs195,555 per tola.

Still, for families preparing for weddings, such policy tweaks offer little comfort. The emotional and cultural value of gold makes it non-negotiable, even at record-high prices.

“We are cutting down, but we cannot do away with gold at the wedding. It is what everyone expects,” said Jaya Devi, reflecting a reality shared by many households.

For jewellers, the concern is how long consumer demand will stay subdued. For families, the worry is how higher gold prices can still climb.