CPN-UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli’s political paper presented at the party’s National Representatives Council meeting in Lalitpur on Saturday makes a case against left-right political polarisation. In the paper, the UML chief rules out a broader left unity. “Cooperation among like-minded parties is what we need” in order to solve the country’s pressing problems, he says in the report. His report comes at a time when Prime Minister and Maoist Centre chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been trying to forge a ‘socialist front’ with smaller outfits like the CPN (Unified Socialist), the Janata Samajbadi Party and the CPN (Netra Bikram Chand). There are two, contradictory calculations at play. While the UML is looking to be the single largest party in the 2027 general elections on the back of its solid organisational base, the far less organised Maoist Centre seems to be in an existential crisis as an electoral force. Dahal and top Maoist leaders fear that unless a wider communist coalition can soon be forged, preferably under the Maoist supremo, the party, currently with 32 seats in the national legislature, could otherwise be wiped off the electoral map.

Oli is a canny political operator. With such a long time before the next elections, he can always change his political line with the need of the time. Even as he blasted the Nepali Congress, the main opposition, in the new political paper, his emissaries have been sending feelers to the Congress top brass. Sections of the Congress and the UML believe that the country’s pressing problems can be solved only if the two biggest parties in parliament work together. For instance, if there is to be a change in the electoral system in order to add stability to national politics, parliamentarians from both parties will have to vote in favour of the motion. Perhaps they also realise that Dahal is an unreliable partner who is always capable of jumping ship. This is why Oli, in all likelihood, is keeping his cards close to his chest. If negotiations with the Congress falter, there is always room to boost cooperation with Dahal and other communist parties. Oli also realises that a strong left coalition, perhaps even an electoral alliance, would be needed in order to deter the rightist forces from coming to power.

Then there is a deeply personal factor at play. Oli abhors Madhav Kumar Nepal, who in 2021 broke away from the UML to form his own Unified Socialist party. He does not like the idea of Dahal, his coalition partner, trying to broker any kind of political agreement with Nepal. If Oli had his way, he would like nothing more than Nepal’s complete political ostracisation. But, overall, Oli controls only one part of a large political puzzle. Nepal’s two immediate neighbours will each have their say on what kind of coalition shapes up in Kathmandu. It is also hard to predict the next move of a mercurial Dahal and a transactional Sher Bahadur Deuba, the Congress leader. The popularity and expansion of Rastriya Swatantra Party presents yet another political and electoral conundrum. The UML chief’s stand against left-right polarisation could only be an opening gambit in a long, multiplayer game.