It is unnatural for the leader of the third largest party in Parliament to be prime minister. But then a different set of rules seems to apply to the Maoist Centre chairman who has time and again defied expectations since he entered mainstream politics in 2006. When he came out of hiding, Dahal had a larger-than-life persona, with those in home and abroad curiously following his every move. He promised a radical transformation of Nepali politics, championing such agendas as federalism, republicanism and proportional representation of all genders and communities. Yet his fall from grace was as swift, as he soon became enmeshed in the kind of dirty parliamentary politics he decried during his underground days. In the past 16 years, he has gained notoriety for moulding his ideology to suit his aspiration for power.

Yet Dahal has once again been entrusted with leading the country. His two previous terms as prime minister were controversial and short, each lasting barely nine months. This time, as per the agreement reached with CPN-UML, the second largest party in the Parliament, plus six other parties, Dahal will get to lead the government for two and a half years, after which UML chairman KP Oli will serve out the remainder of the five-year term. One thing going for Dahal is that the new ruling coalition now has a cushion of around 30-odd seats, which means it will survive even if a few smaller outfits pull out. But it is by no means certain that Oli will agree to play second fiddle to Dahal for so long; the previous Maoist Centre-UML merger had unravelled because neither Oli nor Dahal was ready to compromise on government leadership.

Another big challenge for Dahal will be handling the international community. Frankly, he is little trusted in New Delhi, Beijing or Washington DC, the three most important foreign actors for Nepal. They know that whatever Dahal tells them is provisional. India and the US have always suspected Dahal of being a China-hugging commie at heart. Beijing once trusted him but soon found out that he could not be always relied upon to secure their interests in Nepal. This time too, India and the US did not want to see him return as the executive head. He could struggle to convince them.

Dahal’s fickle nature is not a recipe for stability in the best of times. He now leads a government encompassing coalition partners with disparate ideologies and fragile egos. The national economy is still in the doldrums. The country is staring at another Covid-19 outbreak. These challenges will call for a steady pair of hands at the top. One can only hope that Dahal has learned from his two previous terms as government head and will resist from making rash decisions, like his untimely sacking of a sitting army chief in 2009. One good thing is that people expect little from his government. Dahal has a great opportunity to prove them wrong. Just like he uses his flexible mindset to serve his own interests, Dahal can employ it in the national interest, starting with adopting the right set of policies to get the wobbly economy back on track. He may not get another chance.