Pakistan’s hybrid model has only one challenge: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its leader, Imran Khan, who is behind bars on corruption charges. The PTI has called for a nationwide protest on August 5, coinciding with Imran’s arrest in 2023, and termed its agenda ‘Free Imran Khan movement’. Anticipating violence, the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif converted the Frontier Constabulary, a border security force, to the Federal Constabulary through a Presidential Ordinance, Frontier Constabulary (Reorganisation) Ordinance, 2025, ostensibly to maintain law and order and help the security agencies.

While the PTI is facing immense challenges after the arrest of its leader, Imran Khan, and other senior party leaders, it has kept its fighting spirit intact. However, some senior leaders left the party after its supporters attacked a military installation in 2023. Nearly 150 cases have been filed against Imran Khan.

Imran Khan remains behind bars despite the PTI campaign, while his sister Aleema Khan is at the forefront of the party with other leaders. What has gone against him is his constant criticism of the country’s powerful military, which he once described as saviours. The military sees Imran as a challenge to its dominance after he fell out with them and held them responsible for his ouster from power, along with the US. The military also played a significant role in keeping him out of the 2024 election, as it did against the PML-N in the 2018 elections.

While the PTI has been thinking of playing its street strength to pressurise the release of its leaders, with some hinting at the possibility of Imran’s sons joining the scheduled protests, a statement by Sharif that Field Marshal Munir is not interested in becoming the President, brought more speculation regarding the longevity of the hybrid regime in Pakistan.

The Imran challenge

In the extended power play, the PTI contested the Army’s role after Imran lost to the no-confidence motion in 2022. His supporters did what other political parties had not done. They attacked the Cantonment as Imran accused the Army of his removal from power. Political parties condemned this violence. However, his frequent references to the Army’s interference stayed in people’s minds, especially the youth who saw Imran as a champion of democracy and a non-corrupt government.

Imran had lost his popularity even before the no-confidence motion, as the economy was sinking with high inflation, growing energy prices, a slide of Pakistan’s currency against the dollar, and his unwillingness to approach the International Monetary Fund, which meant tough economic measures harsh on people.

Yet, his supporters stayed with him as he confronted the military. The fact that 93 of his party members were elected to the Parliament as independent candidates in the 2024 parliamentary elections, despite the mechanism to deprive the party of its election symbol, speaks volumes about his popularity. Many of them, defeating Pakistan Muslim League-Noon (PML-N) stalwarts, show disenchantment with the military. His arrest and several trumped-up charges against him divided the Army for the first time in the military’s history. Since the arrest of Imran Khan, the Pakistan Army has been on an upward swing, entrenching its hold on power. In the 2024 election, many believed that the Army stitched together the coalition that helped the Sharifs return to power. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) struck a bargain and saw to it that Asif Ali Zardari became the President of Pakistan, symbolising a sharing arrangement between the PPP and the PML-N.

Advantage military

On May 7, the Supreme Court, hearing multiple intra-court appeals, overturned its earlier verdict and allowed civilians to be tested in the military courts. Pakistan was facing challenges in Balochistan and the recent sectarian violence in Kurram in November 2024. It is also in constant war of words with Afghanistan over the Tehreek Taliban Pakistan and the challenges it faced from the PTI, which constantly attacked Gen Munir. In November 2022, Munir was appointed Army Chief three days before his retirement. His initial tenure of three years was extended to five years in November 2024. He also towed the military line by amending the Official Secrets Act and Army Act, making defamation of the military a crime.

The PTI also appears divided on its August 5 plan. Since last year, the division within the party has been apparent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Punjab. It has already expelled five of its lawmakers for voting in favour of the 26th Amendment Act. Division within the PTI over its relationship with the Army and its future strategy further weakens the party, which is seen as the only party that challenges the military dominance, making it popular among the youth.

Following India’s Operation Sindoor, Prime Minister Sharif conferred the position of Field Marshal on Asim Munir, making him the second Army Chief to hold this position after Field Marshal Ayub Khan who was the first military dictator of Pakistan. Such steps by the prime minister only attest that the civilian government is willing to pander to the military ego to sustain itself in power.

Munir’s subsequent visit to the US and lunch with President Donald Trump reflected the US’s eagerness to engage the military, not the civilian authority. Pakistan’s military is essential in determining the direction of its foreign policy. Especially under the current hybrid regime, it has more political space to shape its policy as Sharif’s government remains weak. The government knows that its relations with the military would determine its longevity in power, and it does not want to repeat the same mistake made by Imran Khan.

In this context, many consider Sharif’s statement that Munir does not wish to become the President was also endorsed by the PPP and the interior minister of Pakistan. After conceding political space to them, it only reflects how the civilian government continues to be wary of the military’s further intrusion. Pakistan’s military is the biggest beneficiary of the hybrid system it has put in place to manage the civilian façade of its dominance. Sharif’s government is more than willing to accommodate the Army. Why would the Army want to upset the present arrangement where the blame of governance is shouldered by the civilians and success is attributed to the Army?