It has been over a month since the protests against Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and the Nepali Congress Chairperson Sher Bahadur Deuba at Tundikhel, Kathmandu. Oli and Deuba were on a decorated stage to inaugurate the celebration of Gaura Parva and greet the assembled public. Gaura Parva is one of the biggest festivals in Western Nepal, celebrated annually to commemorate the marriage between Hindu goddess Gauri and lord Shiva. As Oli-Deuba lit candles to begin the programme, shouts of "Oli Chor, Desh Chhod" (Leave the country, Oli the thief) filled the air. The shouting continued when the duo, Oli first and then Deuba, delivered their greetings. A large group of young men in the audience led the protest. The protest leaders were arrested by the police the following day. Not long after, Man Bahadur Karki, a common citizen who sells mo:mo in Bouddha, was incarcerated for criticising the prime minister on his Facebook account.

The slogans and shouting expressed outrage against politicians under whose watch Nepal's standing in the world has dropped to one of the poorest and most corrupt countries. Nepal's economy is in dire straits, public education is in shambles, and public institutions are dysfunctional. Thousands of despondent young men and women leave the country every year seeking work.

The protest and the subsequent arrests sparked a heated debate in parliament. Many parliament members and media pundits saw in the protest the potential for a mass movement against the ruling politicians, akin to what transpired in Bangladesh. This possibility of a significant shift in Nepal's political landscape is both intriguing and engaging.

What is the likelihood of a transformation in Nepal? Could removing the current brand of politicians pave the way for a new era of value-based governance and politics? Seeking answers, my mind wandered to my days in Iran in 1977-78 and Nepal just before the 1990 Jana Andolan.

Iran 1977-79

In late 1977, I worked on a vast pulp and paper factory construction project in Iran, a "peaceful" place. But I wasn’t aware that the peace masked the undercurrent of simmering public anger against the Iranian King Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi's pro-American, "anti-Islam" policies and corruption in his government. The Shah's forces had, over the years, successfully crushed many sporadic anti-Shah protests led by the Imams and the banned pro-Soviet Tudeh party. Both Shah and the Americans saw these protests as minor irritants. There was a sense of entitlement and invincibility in Shah's government and his associates.

In August 1978, a fire in a cinema hall in the province of Abadan killed nearly 400 people. Shah's opponents blamed the government for it. The government denied it, but no one believed them. People had lost trust in the state. A few months after the cinema fire, another anti-Shah protest erupted under the rallying cry of Ruhollah Khomeini, an Islamic cleric. Tudeh, a pro-Soviet party, joined forces with Khomeini. SAVAK, Shah's secret police, arrested and manhandled the protestors, further inflaming the conflict. Ordinary people started joining the protests. Mohammad Reza Shah fled the country in January 1979.

‘Jana Andolan’ 1990

For years, people's anger against the 30-year-old 'Partyless Panchayat System', a euphemism for King Mahendra's authoritarian rule, simmered under Kathmandu's peaceful veneer. The blatant abuse of power and corruption by those close to the palace alienated ordinary people from the royal regime. Sporadic protests against the government had happened before 1990, but the King's forces had crushed them. A sense of entitlement and invincibility prevailed among the Royals and their close associates.

In early 1990, the Nepali Congress and Nepal's Communist parties joined forces and called for public protests, demanding the dismissal of the ban on political parties and the restoration of democracy. No one, including the leaders of the "Movement for the Restoration of Democracy (MRD)," seemed confident whether the movement would succeed.

A couple of months before the MRD's scheduled start date, I asked Ganesh Man Singh, the movement's leader, to estimate the number of people who may join them. He said, "Twenty thousand, thirty thousand." I asked if the movement would be successful. "I do not know. We have to do what we have to do," he replied. Girija Prasad Koirala's answer was similar.

Two days later, former Speaker of the House Daman Dhungana and I met Jaggananth Upadhya, Minister of Land Reform in BP Koirala's cabinet and a leader of the Nepali Congress, at his home in Thimi. His answer to my question was, "I think in the beginning, about sixty thousand. But it will grow as the movement spreads."

The MRD started on February 18, 1990. As the movement grew, the king's forces tried to crush the protestors violently. The state's violence gave unexpected momentum to the movement. People from all over the country started joining it. Finally, 49 days after the MRD began, the king buckled. On April 8, 1990, he lifted the ban on political parties.

Will Nepal be a repeat of Bangladesh?

Observations in Iran, Nepal and other countries, including countries impacted by the Arab Springs, point to a distinctive pattern that successful mass movements follow: politicians in power for a long time become numb to citizens' aspirations, develop a sense of entitlement and invincibility and lose people's trust; they successfully crush sporadic public uprisings against their abuses for some time; suddenly, one day (no one knows when), the pent-up public discontent explodes; protests gain momentum; the government gets increasingly repressive; angered by the repression, the protesting mass grows beyond the government control, and the politicians give in or flee the country.

In Nepal, hardly anyone trusts politicians; public anger against the leaders simmers. The supposedly democratic government is beginning to show signs of repression against the opposition, manifest in the arrest of Tundikhel protestors and those wearing tee shirts with the image of Balen Shah (Kathmandu's mayor, whom Oli dislikes) in Indra Jatra. Thus, the underlying conditions for an unexpected mass uprising are alive and present. Time will tell whether this will translate into a repeat of Bangladesh.

The concern is that the "repeat of Bangladesh" may be a fitting punishment for politicians who have failed us, but it is unlikely to bring Nepal to the path of prosperity. Past uprisings, such as Janadolan, did not do it. In Iran, the Islamic government that followed the Shah has turned out to be worse than the Shah's. Arab Spring countries have similar experiences. The best alternative for Nepal is to replace the old politicians with competent people with a proven commitment to public service through the electoral process.