Sri Lanka’s presidential election, scheduled for September 21, is taking an interesting turn. The Sri Lanka Podujana Peremuna (SLPP), which initially planned to nominate Ranil Wickramasinghe as the presidential candidate, has now nominated Namal Rajapakse, the son of former President Mahinda Rajapakse.

Wickremesinghe was delaying his candidature announcement, giving rise to speculation that he was not interested in becoming the official nominee of SLPP, which would undermine the future of the United National Party (UNP) he heads. SLPP demanded that if Wickremesinghe wants to contest the position, he must resign from the UNP. The problem started after some of his supporters from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) proposed to sideline the Rajapakses. Moreover, Namal Rajapakse opposed Wickremesinghe’s contest from SLPP, forcing the party to reconsider its decision.

Yet, Wickremesinghe has garnered support from many SLPP and Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) parliamentarians for his candidature. He has decided to contest as an independent candidate, stating that a non-party, common candidate is the need of the hour. He expects people to vote based on his performance in the last two years. The Freedom People’s Congress (FPC), a breakaway faction of SLPP, has decided to join the SJB, while another faction joined the UNP headed by Wickremesinghe.

One is witnessing several permutations and combinations. At the first Ekwa Jayagamu (Victory through Unity) rally in Matara, the President called on other parties to put their personal agendas aside and work for the country.

The presidential fray

Apart from the sitting president Wickremesinghe, who the SLPP supports at present, and Namal, the party’s official candidate in this election, Sajith Premadasa—son of former President of Sri Lanka Ranasinghe Premadasa of SJB—and Anura Kamara Dissanayake, also known as AKD of National People’s Power (NPP)—the new avatar of JVP with its notorious violent past—are also contesting. Both had contested the last presidential election and lost to Gotabaya Rajapakse.

Sajith had broken away from the UNP and formed the SJB with others after having serious differences with Ranil Wickremesinghe. But Wickremesinghe benefited from the 2022 Jana Aragalaya (people’s movement). Wickremesinghe, who was the prime minister, took over as President after Gotabaya was forced to quit.

Other actors

The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) established by the Bandaranaike family is faction-ridden, with three leaders claiming party presidency, and one faction has extended support to Sajith Premadasa. P Ariyanethiran is a Tamil candidate representing the Ilankai Thamil Arasu Katchchi (ITAK), part of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). After the death of the TNA supremo, it is ridden with factionalism. The Tamils have previously voted for major political parties in the presidential election. They form a crucial vote bank that can determine the outcome of the September election, as seen in the past. Many attribute the LTTE’s boycott of the 2004 election contributed to the victory of Mahinda Rajapakse.

Campaign strategies

Wickramasinghe’s campaigning strategy is based on Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. According to the World Bank, it is on the road to recovery, even though it considers debt restructuring inadequate and emphasises structural reforms. He wants to capitalise on this. In May, the Sri Lankan government introduced three Bills—the Economic Transformation Bill, the Public Debt Management Bill and the Public Financial Management Bill, which faced significant opposition from the SJB and the NPP. The government’s effort has been debt restructuring to utilise valuable foreign currency for economic development and attract investment. Wickramasinghe has asked all the political forces to join and, interestingly, has offered Sajith restoration of his UNP membership if he cooperates.

Wickremesinghe is going to address his second rally on August 17 in Anuradhapura. His supporters, drawn from several political parties, want to form a new front to support his election. A main advantage for him is that he came to lead the country at a time when others, especially SJB’s Sajith—who came second in the 2019 Presidential election—were not prepared to take responsibility. Wickramasinghe, in his first Anuradhapura rally in July, also said that Sri Lanka’s GDP is $85 million, which should be increased to $350 million by 2028. Whether he will receive the support of the minorities is yet to be seen.

Sajith Premadasa had lost the election to Gotabaya in 2019. Yet, unlike R Premadasa, he is not a charismatic leader who keeps ears to the ground. The SJB, which has formed a coalition of seven parties, will fight the election under the Samagi Jana Sandanaya (SJS) platform. Sajith has promised to continue with the IMF reforms to bring the economy back on track. The party has prioritised anti-corruption as its main plank. It is looking for the support of the minorities and has been able to enlist the support of the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA) headed by Mano Ganesan, who represents Malaiyaha Tamils spread across the Central, Southern and Western provinces and that of Sri Lanka Muslim Congress.

The left-leaning NPP (formerly JVP) is a strong contender in this presidential election. Its leader, Anura Kumara Bandaranaike, has visited India and other Western countries to ally the fear of these countries, given JVP’s violent past and its anti-India and anti-Western stances in the past. JVP’s leader Bandaranaike is leading in various opinion polls. In recent rallies, he has drawn massive crowds with his slogan of ushering in a ‘new renaissance’. His promises include political and economic reforms.

Among all these candidates, Namal Rajapakse bears the burden of everything that has gone wrong with Sri Lanka recently. Namal has previously been a sports minister and thus has political experience. The removal of his uncle Gotabaya Rajapakse and the alleged corruption his family was involved in are still etched in people’s minds. Namal may not find an easy way, and the opinion poll puts him in a distant third.

Difficult choice

With political fragmentation across all the political parties except for the NPP, it would be difficult for voters to choose. Wickremesinghe stood a good chance and perhaps could have pulled through with the support of the SLPP and his performance in the last two years. But the NPP appears stronger and more focussed, and has a clear vision for the country. Unlike other political parties, it is not tried and tested. Its violent past and radical left ideology perhaps would not help the IMF reform plans on which Sri Lanka depends. Holding a position of power may help Anura Kamara Dissanayake to moderate his stance on economic recovery and the unemployment problem and to secure the rights of the working class.