A week ago, on July 2, at midnight, Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba and Communist Party of Nepal-UML chairperson KP Sharma Oli struck a deal to form an alliance to rule the country. The two largest parties in Parliament secretly agreeing to form a ruling coalition is an anomaly for any democracy. More worryingly, the nation is still kept in the dark about the terms of the agreement.

What do they have to hide? From whom? Why? As The Kathmandu Post observed immediately, this secrecy is “a sign of dishonesty” amongst the ruling elites. It’s legitimate to suspect why they would conceal the agreement for so long if there was nothing controversial or sinister about it.

The Canadian novelist Gilbert Parker said, “In all secrets there is a kind of guilt, however beautiful or joyful they may be…secrecy means evasion, and evasion means a problem to the moral mind.” The oppressed are beginning to worry that the deal is a conspiracy against them, that it will bolster Brahmanism and curtail their rights and privileges.

Achievements under threat?

Many of the oppressed and their allies suspect that the deal between the Congress and the UML leadership includes agendas such as the following: (i) the abolition of federalism (ii) the reinstatement of the Hindu nation (iii) the termination of proportional representation in the elections, and (iv) end of the caste-based quota system.

A mix of internal and external factors seems to have contributed to the mainstream party leaders, their MPs and other influential politicians desiring the above-mentioned changes. For one thing, almost all the major players in the corridors of power are high-caste Hindu men from the hills who have naturally been unhappy with the declaration of Nepal as a secular state.

The fact that the constitution has betrayed the very meaning of secularism—by openly stressing the promotion and preservation of the Hindu religion as a central goal of secularism—has not satisfied the conservative Hindu minds. These strongly religious and traditional people dominate not just the government and parties but all the state bodies, including the judiciary, army and police.

No wonder, a significant number of Nepali Congress MPs recently wrote to their party leadership asking for a return of the Hindu nation. A few Dalit MPs, too, joined the call for a Hindu nation—without perhaps realising how much self-harm their action is likely to do. There’s a similar Hindubadi sentiment amongst many communist politicians. Dr Ambedkar was right when he noted that upper-caste Hindus cannot be true communists!

Another possible factor responsible for initiating the aforementioned regressive steps is the risk of the king’s return. Parties are understandably concerned about monarchy making a comeback as a consequence of their own poor governance. In the short term, there’s also the chance of the monarchist force, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, making electoral gains due to the unpopularity of the mainstream parties.

So, perhaps the two biggest parties opted to return to, in essence, the constitution of 1991, albeit without the monarchy. They may have seen this as the only feasible way to preserve their hold in a fast-changing society against the onslaught of both the monarchists and the populists. The latter has, in fact, posed a bigger threat than the royalists in recent years.

Equally powerful seems to be the external factor: The Hindu nationalist pressure from India. The return of Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party to power may have forced the parties to concede to Delhi’s demand to reinstate Nepal as the world’s only Hindu nation.

No matter how much he desires, Prime Minister Modi cannot turn his own country into an officially Hindu state. But Nepal may be coerced to that end. He can easily exert great pressure on a small and weak neighbour like Nepal, which is also invariably ruled by upper-caste Hindus.

The current geopolitical situation may have emboldened Modi’s resolve to revive Nepal as a Hindu nation. The Western powers, mainly the United States of America and Europe, do have some influence in Nepal as bilateral and multilateral donors. However, these powers have lost their moral high ground because of their blind support to the Jewish and apartheid state of Israel in its genocide of the Palestinians.

Dark days ahead?

I hope my speculations will turn out to be completely wrong. But more and more members of the Dalit and ethnic minority communities have become increasingly nervous about what may be coming. Many members of these communities who are aligned with the Congress and the UML, too, feel that the days ahead do not look good.

If you mix Hindu nationalist politics with the already deeply embedded cultural Hinduism, all you get is a society that is much more casteist and bigoted, i.e., more intolerant towards Dalits, tribal groups, religious minorities and Muslims in particular.

Officially, a Hindu state means an officially caste apartheid state—a Brahmanist, Manubadi state. This is crystal clear. Then, the Manubadi laws will further overshadow modern and secular laws, thus emboldening orthodox and conservative Hindu elements. Caste discrimination and untouchability will become much more accepted, if not encouraged, in society.

Likewise, ending the federal system is tantamount to bulldozing the ethnic identity and rights of ethnic and/or indigenous communities. At a time when some people are still clamouring for ethnic identity—as we’ve recently seen in eastern Nepal, including the parliamentary elections in Ilam, as well as the ongoing anti-cable-car movement in Pathivara temple—the new Oli regime will be doing everything possible to further divide and weaken ethnic activism.

Getting rid of the little privileges and benefits we’ve been receiving through the quota system will be another disaster. Suppose the Oli and Deuba regimes choose to implement the recommendations made by the Inclusion Commission (which exclusively comprises Bahun officials), the quota allocations will be made purely based on class. This means the lower classes from the upper castes will reap much of the benefits, and the current outrage from certain quarters on the reservation to Dalits will vanish.

In the end

It’s not yet known what issues Deuba and Oli have agreed upon—but whatever it is, it doesn’t look good. It seems surreal and potentially dangerous to our future. Why would they hide the agreement if it wouldn’t cause some sort of unhappiness amongst some communities?

The leaders’ likely goal is to keep the majority happy, which often means pandering to the interests of the traditional and conservative upper castes and those of the orthodox neighbours. This often entails curtailing the already limited rights and privileges of the oppressed groups.

Yet, I’d say, let’s not despair! We should, however, remain watchful. The contents of the mysterious bag will be out in the open sooner or later. If the septuagenarian leaders attempt to further destroy us and deny our dignity and rights, it may give rise to a new opportunity for the divided and disillusioned peoples to come together. The government may thus indirectly encourage Dalits, Janajatis, Madhesis and other marginalised groups to unite and fight.