The International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction on October 13 this year will spotlight early warning and action on multi-hazards—a very relevant theme in Nepal’s disaster risk landscape. With hydrometeorological hazards growing in frequency and intensity across the country, our early warning systems have also been evolving to keep pace.

We have come a long way from the early 2000s when an observer perched on a tower would monitor water levels in rivers and warn communities about the likelihood of floods through sirens. Today, we have water-level sensors and data acquisition units that provide real-time information about the flow of rivers. We are witnessing significant progress in the generation, accuracy, and timeliness of early warnings through advanced tools, finer-resolution models, and Earth observation. These advancements in technology are being complemented by a partnership with communities, government agencies, and local and regional organisations working on disaster risk reduction.

Today, organisations such as the UNDP, Practical Action, Mercy Corps, Lutheran World Relief, and ICIMOD, in collaboration with the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), have established flood early warning systems across Nepal. Since 2016, the DHM has provided weather and climate services with flood advisories and information on rainfall estimates, weather forecasts, and updates on the situation of significant rivers. The department communicates these advisories through flood bulletins and SMS alerts to targeted recipients, which include vital organisations involved in disaster risk reduction, including the National Emergency Operating Centre and individuals within the identified hazard zones.

These early warning systems have proven effective on many occasions, such as during the 2014 flooding in the Karnali River, the 2017 flooding in the Ratu River, and the 2021 Melamchi floods. Local radio and upstream-downstream informal communication were used for messaging.

Moreover, the World Food Programme and the Government of Nepal are implementing a forecast-based financing project to bridge the gap between early warnings and anticipatory actions for floods in the 14 most disaster-prone districts of the Terai region. Similarly, the government of Nepal is working on institutionalising early warning systems across government levels. As a signatory to the Sendai Framework for DRR, Nepal has made significant progress in policy regarding disaster risk reduction, setting up institutional structures, plans, and guidelines at national, sub-national, and local levels.

Growing, cascading risks

But in parallel with progress in early warning systems, hazards are becoming more devastating and unpredictable. Annual monsoons and untimely, difficult-to-predict hazard events still wreak havoc on our communities. Floods, flash floods, and landslides have plagued Nepal’s Terai and mid-hills in recent years. For instance, the untimely floods of October 2021 in far western Nepal, the floods in Melamchi in June 2021, and the 2017 monsoon floods across South Asia. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), hydrometeorological disasters, including floods and landslides, have already led to at least 143 deaths across the country in 2022.

To compound matters, indices of climate extremes related to temperature and precipitation suggest that these extremes will continue to heighten, increasing unpredictability in the future. Nepal’s Climate Change Scenario report indicates that extreme precipitation events are likely to increase in frequency, with highly wet days (P99) expected to increase. The IPCC AR6 report warns that the changes to streamflow magnitude, timing, and associated extremes are projected to adversely impact freshwater ecosystems, biodiversity, agriculture, health, energy, and infrastructure within the mid-to-long-term timeframe across all assessed climate scenarios.

There is also the increasing threat of cascading multiple hazards. Lessons drawn from disaster events show that floods in the mountainous region have changed in recent years. Multiple climate hazards coincide, and numerous climatic and non-climatic risks interact, compounding the overall risk and cascading risks and impacts on lives, livelihoods, ecosystems, agricultural productivity, and infrastructure. The Melamchi disaster is an excellent example of cascading hazards, with glacial lake outburst floods, landslides, and landslide dam outburst floods snowballing to cause colossal damage.

What better can we do?

The next stage in the evolution of early warning systems in Nepal is focusing on multi-hazard early warning and information identifying at-risk areas, improving response efficiency. We must strengthen local and national policy frameworks to support multi-hazard early warning systems. The government has a Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Strategic Action Plan (2018–2030) in place, which prioritises multi-hazard risk assessment and mapping at different governance levels. The NDRRMA also leads a task force to develop a multi-hazard early warning systems framework. However, these strategies and plans need to translate to implementation on the ground, which is achieved with a broader partnership and a greater devolution of disaster management roles and responsibilities to local governments (as we have seen in Karnali, where the provincial government is preparing a strategic action plan to run a multi-hazard early warning system, or in Saptari, where stakeholders have come together to create a basket fund).

Significantly, at a transboundary level, we do not have a formal mechanism for early warning between disaster risk authorities across borders. Transboundary disaster events—such as the 2016 glacial lake outburst flood in the Bhote Koshi and the 2008 floods in the Koshi—are some examples where transboundary collaboration in EWS would have minimised the impacts.

There are also opportunities to strengthen community engagement and ownership, risk communication, and response mechanisms. A study by ICIMOD shows that action needs to occur locally with impact-based early warning. Early warning information must reach individuals and households through formal and informal risk communication and institutional mechanisms. We also need concerted efforts to help communities understand the implications of the warning and be trained to take appropriate action, identify safe evacuation routes, and establish safe zones in advance. Similarly, given how disasters compound inequalities and existing vulnerabilities, a tailored gender perspective must be adopted in planning and adaptation to disaster risks. We need to develop and instil a culture of better preparedness at the local level so communities can take timely action.

This year in March, UN Secretary-General António Guterres declared that the World Meteorological Organisation would focus on ensuring every person is protected by early warning systems within five years. This provides Nepal with an opportunity to scale up and seek investments in early warning systems to meet the global target of the Sendai Framework: “Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to people by 2030.”

We need to put in place end-to-end and people-centred multi-hazard early warning systems supported by investments and policy frameworks. This would help us better understand risk and improve monitoring and warning for not only floods but also for a host of other, possibly interconnected, hazards. At the local level, we must strengthen risk communication, awareness, and response capabilities with adequate budgets, technical expertise, and human resources. We must foster innovation to minimise the adverse impacts of disasters and respond to multiple cascading hazards in Nepal—all leading towards a more sustainable, resilient, and equitable future.