Weather to remain generally fair across the country during DashainNo weather system in sight to cause disturbances, the Meteorological Forecasting Division says.
Weather will remain fair during Dashain, as there is no system in sight to cause disturbances, the Meteorological Forecasting Division under the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, said.
Met officials said that rainfall, snowfall and hailstorms triggered by westerlies in various parts of the country will stop by Wednesday.
“The weather will improve from Wednesday,” said Prativa Manandhar, a meteorologist at the division. “Compared to Monday, the weather improved on Tuesday and it will be better from Wednesday.”
Although this year’s monsoon exited the country Sunday, many places including the districts of Kathmandu Valley—Kathmandu Bhaktapur and Lalitpur—witnessed rainfall on Monday. According to the Met office, the Valley recorded 8.8 mm rainfall. Dhangadhi of Kailali district recorded 30.1 mm rainfall, the highest in the country, followed by Simara of Bara district 23 mm, Bhairahawa 20.4 mm, Nepalgunj 11.4 mm, Dadeldhura 10.3 mm and Dipayal 10.2 mm. Darchula district witnessed heavy snowfall and hail.
Mountain regions of the country witnessed snowfall on Monday.
According to the forecast by the division, there is a chance of light rainfall, thunder and lightning in Koshi and Bagmati Province and a few places in the Tarai region on Tuesday. High mountainous regions could witness snowfall.
Hilly areas of Sudurpaschim, Karnali and Lumbini provinces will remain partly to generally cloudy on Wednesday. Some places of these provinces could witness light to moderate rainfall, thunder and lightning. Some places in the mountainous regions could witness snowfall.
Manandhar said that the local weather system could cause rainfall, and hailstorms in some areas, which is a general trend of the post-monsoon season.
On Sunday, the Met division had declared that the monsoon exited the country 13 days later than usual.
Generally, June 13 and October 2 are taken as monsoon onset and exit dates, respectively, in Nepal. This year, the monsoon entered the country on June 14, a day later than the average date.
Normally, the country receives an average of 1,472 mm of rainfall in the four months of June, July, August and September. However, the country has witnessed below-average rainfall this year—88.5 percent of the total average, according to the department.
A lack of sufficient rainfall in districts has not only impacted the cultivation of all arable lands, but also prevented farmers from planting crops on time. This means agricultural yields might have taken a hit.
The department has predicted that most parts of the country will see above-average rainfall and above-average maximum and minimum temperatures between October and December.
The department’s climate section, which recently forecast weather conditions for October 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023, says there is a 35–55 percent chance of above-average rainfall in the said period.
According to the forecast, the chance of above-average maximum temperature in the said period is 35 to 55 percent and that of above-average minimum temperature is 35 to 65 percent.
The office, however, said that above-average rainfall differs from place to place. The chances of above-average rainfall in the eastern part of Lumbini Province and most places of Koshi, Gandaki, Bagmati and Madhesh provinces is 45 to 55 percent while the chance of above-average rainfall in the rest of the places is 35 to 45 percent.
The eastern part of Koshi Province, the central and western parts of Madhesh, the central and southern parts of Bagmati, except the central and north-east parts of Gandaki, Lumbini, most of Karnali, and eastern parts of Sudurpaschim Province, could see above-average maximum temperatures. Such a chance is 35 percent to 45 percent.
Chances of above-average minimum temperatures in Sudurpaschim Province, most parts of Karnali Province and western parts of Lumbini Province are 55 to 65 percent. Similarly, the chances of above-average minimum temperature in central and northern parts of Gandaki Province, and central parts of Lumbini Province is 45 to 55 percent. Chances of above-average minimum temperature are 35 to 45 percent in the rest of the places.
Nepal has been at the receiving end of the worst effects of the climate crisis and has witnessed multiple extreme weather events over the past decade and a half.
Evidence suggests that the maximum temperature in Nepal is rising faster, at 0.056 degrees Celsius a year, compared to the global average of 0.03 degrees.
Experts say extreme weather events—excessive rainfall in a short span of time, continuous rains for several days post-monsoon, dry spells and droughts, below-average precipitation and above-normal temperatures in winter—have become more frequent in recent years.
Scores of studies and scientific analyses over the decade, and more recently the IPCC report, have warned that Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, and it takes more than a business-as-usual approach to tackle the adverse impacts.