Most parts of Nepal will see above-average rainfall and above-average maximum and minimum temperatures between October and December, according to a forecast by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.

The department’s climate Section, which recently forecast weather conditions from October 1, 2022, to December 31, 2023, says there is a 35–55 percent chance of above-average rainfall in the said period.

“The forecast predicts weather conditions for the upcoming three months and we have already witnessed above-average rainfall in October,” said Bibhuti Pokharel, information officer at the department. “Above-average temperature rise is in an upward trend in Nepal of late.”

Evidence indicates that the maximum temperature in Nepal is rising at a greater rate (0.05 degrees Celsius per year) than the minimum temperature (0.03 degrees Celsius per year).

The Met department said that the chance of above-average maximum temperature in the said period is 35 to 55 percent and that of above-average minimum temperature is 35 to 65 percent.

The office, however, said that above-average rainfall differs from place to place. The chances of above-average rainfall in the eastern part of Lumbini Province and most places of Koshi, Gandaki, Bagmati and Madhesh provinces is 45 to 55 percent while the chance of above-average rainfall in the rest places is 35 to 45 percent.

The eastern part of Koshi Province, the central and western parts of Madhesh, the central and southern parts of Bagmati, except the central and north-east parts of Gandaki, Lumbini, most of Karnali, and eastern parts of Sudurpaschim Province, could see above-average maximum temperatures. Such a chance is 35 percent to 45 percent.

Chances of above-average minimum temperatures in Sudurpaschim Province, most parts of Karnali Province and western parts of Lumbini Province are 55 to 65 percent. Similarly, the chances of above-average minimum temperature in central and northern parts of Gandaki Province, and central parts of Lumbini Province is 45 to 55 percent. Chances of above-average minimum temperature are 35 to 45 percent in the rest of the places.

The Met office had forecast below-average rainfall in the monsoon.

Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the climate crisis and has witnessed multiple extreme weather events over the past decade and a half.

Experts say extreme weather events—excessive rainfall in a short time, continuous rain for several days post-monsoon, dry spells and droughts, below-average precipitation and above-normal temperatures in winter—have become more frequent in Nepal in recent years.

Meanwhile, the Met office said that monsoon has withdrawn completely from all parts of Karnali and Lumbini provinces and the western part of Lumbini. The office says that monsoon will withdraw from the rest of the places in the coming days.