From its internal leadership to its relationship with China, the economy, Covid-19 and press freedom, Myanmar is in a tight spot now on many fronts.

NLD's relationship with the military

Most of Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian ministerial appointees in the recently overthrown National League for Democracy (NLD) government were former political prisoners during the long decades of military rule.

But they remained “activists” by nature and proved to be “ineffective” administrators – fueling rumours throughout the past few years of an eventual coup.

The NLD team’s performance was always compared to its predecessor Gen Thein Sein who began the democratisation and liberalisation process that led to the 2015 national elections won by NLD.

Following the November 2, 2020, election, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the military started to criticise the election process and claimed that massive fraud had taken place in NLD’s landslide win. However, calls for an investigation were rejected by both the Election Commission and the government.

On January 31, the military press team issued a release citing more than 10 million instances of vote fraud and requested the Union Election Commission to release a comprehensive electoral roll, a request that was quickly rejected by the government and the Union Election Committee.

There is no love lost between the military and NLD politicians, most of whom are now under house arrest.

Peace talks

Uniting different ethnic factions – especially armed groups – was Suu Kyi’s flagship policy. But it progressed at a snail's pace and stalled over the past few years.

All was not going well and the increase in activities by insurgency groups such as the Arakan Army fueled further conflicts. Suu Kyi appeared to have thrown all her energy into making it work but many critics said this was a strategic mistake, suggesting that the economy should have been the priority as a prelude to peace among the different factions.

It’s difficult to say now regarding the future of the peace talks. The ethnic groups probably preferred to negotiate with a civilian government than the military hardliners but the latter was always going to have the final say.

As of now, the coup has been condemned by large ethnic groups with armed factions such as the Karen National Union.

Rohingya issue

One of the few issues that Suu Kyi saw completely eye-to-eye with the military was on the Rohingya. But her personal defence of Myanmar’s back-to-the-wall Rohingya policy isolated the State Counsellor from the world completely. She might have gone to the World Criminal Court in the Hague but never once had she visited Rakhine State.

The repatriation of millions of displaced persons, not only those in Bangladesh but within Rakhine itself, will keep pressure on Myanmar politically, economically and socially.

The military is unlikely to give way as it has always used the issue as a populist tool for domestic support.

Covid-19

Myanmar’s poor public health system meant that infections were going to run away. The number of cases now stands at 140,354 with 3,318 deaths. Of these, 125,324 had recovered.

Dr Thet Khine Win, a Secretary at the former Health Ministry, has, since the coup, been appointed as Health and Sports Minister, signaling a continuation of the Covid-19 containment strategy under the new military government.

Vaccines just began to arrive in Myanmar last week through the Covishield programme from India. A concerted vaccination effort has not yet taken off. Overall, Myanmar is dealing with a reduction with the second wave of Covid-19 infections though the economy has been badly hit. GDP growth has been stagnant over the past year, but poverty has increased in the country.

Economy

The economy has always been the NLD-led government’s Achilles heel over the past four years as it played second fiddle to ethnic peace efforts.

The sentiment was further dampened by the Rohingya exodus crisis and a sharp drop in tourism in 2019 while in 2020, the tourism industry was further hit by Covid-19.

But grassroots welfare has not seen much improvement and Covid-19 has pushed many into poverty.

Some political pundits suggested that NLD would have lost more seats in the November 2020 elections if it didn’t play the “return to military rule tactic” in an effort to woo voters.

The economy grew about 6% in 2019, somewhat below the expectations of an investment hungry nation. China continues to be Myanmar’s biggest foreign investor.

Some progress was seen under the NLD-led economic team in investments in electricity supply and transportation.

Nonetheless, in the past few years, businesses have been complaining about indecisiveness and incompetence of Cabinet ministers, whose backgrounds were mostly political activism.

Press freedom

Surprisingly more intolerant and draconian than her predecessor former president Thein Sein, Suu Kyi proved to be “thin-skinned” and defended the "rule of law" (among the harshest in the world) over freedom of speech and thereby democracy building.

A number of journalists were put in jail and many media organisations faced intimidation. The most high-profile case was the two local Reuters journalists who were jailed for their investigation into an army atrocity against a Rohingya community.

The government was also active user of the infamous telecommunications law that allowed the accused to be jailed when charged and before trial.

Press freedom, despite all hope, fell substantially since NLD came to power in 2015. Self-censorship prevailed throughout.

No improvement in press freedom is expected under the military junta.

Leadership

Ang San Suu Kyi’s leadership reference was always made against her predecessor and former president Thein Sein who was credited with Myanmar’s opening up on the political and economic fronts.

She was not seen as a competent leader but more as a popular icon. Myanmar’s long years of education collapse meant that the inexperienced civilian ministers and inefficient bureaucracy could not advance on Thein Sein’s achievements.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing now controls the executive, military, and judiciary. His ambition to become president is well noted and he could run in the next election which the military appears to aim for in a year.

His style of governance is still not quite clear, but it looks as though he aims to improve the economy, get Covid-19 under control, according to his initial statements.

His quickly-announced Cabinet include 11 new members. Many of them are former ministers of the USDP government under Thein Sein or former military officials.

China

Relations with China during the past four years heightened with Myanmar’s isolation because of the Rohingya crisis. Suu Kyi was drawn into China’s orbit alongside the military.

China continues to tread with its policy of non-interference. Along with Russia, China looks to continue to defend Myanmar at the United Nations Security Council.

China does not want to see Myanmar plunged into political instability and chaos especially at its borders as well as many projections now being negotiated under the Belt and Road Intiative.

Myanmar is important to China’s strategic interest in the Indian Ocean and to future development of Yunnan province as well as energy supply from the Bay of Bengal.

The US has indicated the looming threat of sanctions. On paper, Singapore accounts for the most percentage of FDI to Myanmar, but a lot of them are American companies investing through Singapore. Myanmar will become more dependent on China. American sanctions are seen bad for Myanmar and would prove to be counterproductive, by local Myanmar as they have most to lose.

World

The arrests of Ang San Suu Kyi and senior NLD members is a watershed in Myanmar’s relations with the world. She herself is unpopular with other world leaders because of her stance on the Rohingya and was seen as ineffective, stubborn and self-serving leader.

But many will also feel the disappointment as Myanmar steps back from democracy – having come so far - to another possible very long military rule era.

The new military will propel economic management to the forefront as they have more capable people than Aung San in this area.

The military may reach out to the US to avoid the sanctions, and even if they show progress, it will not be easy. The Rohingya crisis will be pivotal.

This article was previously published in The Star, which is a part of Asia News Network.