In the past few days, there has been a lot of speculation about an ordinance on the Political Parties Act-2017.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who is also the chair of the CPN-UML, has been trying to convince leaders from his own party as well as the chief of the major coalition partner Nepali Congress, Sher Bahadur Deuba, of the need to bring the ordinance.

But other leaders, mainly from opposition parties, have strongly objected to the government’s alleged plans to introduce it. They have publicly criticised the government for what they called plans to ease the criteria for splitting parties in order to help dissident groups in various political parties. These groups have been waiting for an opportune time to form new outfits or defect to bigger ones.

As Oli seems determined to bring the ordinance, Congress leaders are either divided or indecisive, according to multiple leaders the Post spoke with.

The issue was extensively discussed during the opposition parties’ meeting convened by CPN (Maoist Centre) on Friday. Almost all the leaders in attendance proposed to strongly oppose the government plan.

However, Oli looks determined to press ahead with a revision of the Act. He also briefed his party’s top leaders on the issue during a meeting of the party’s central secretariat on Sunday.

After Prime Minister Oli also talked about the plan to soon introduce the ordinance, CPN (Unified Socialist) chair Madhav Kumar Nepal warned of consequences on Monday.

Addressing a Lumbini Province-level meeting of the Unified Socialist in Kapilvastu on Monday, party chair Nepal warned Prime Minister Oli against bringing such an ordinance.

Nepal said Oli will face backlash if he tried to split other parties.

“The government will have to face the consequences. Be careful; those who think they can finish others will ultimately finish themselves. World history shows this. Hitler, who dreamed of conquering the world, was alone when he died. Therefore, abandon the Hitler style,” Nepal said while addressing the meeting.

“During the brief meeting of the party secretariat, Oli had discussed the ordinances related to political parties,” a UML leader confided to the Post.

However, the party's vice chair, Yubraj Gyawali, denied this. The secretariat meeting was focused on the party's internal matters, Gyawali said.

“If there were any discussions about the ordinance with the leader of the main coalition partner, we are unaware of it,” Gyawali told the Post. “But during the party’s secretariat meeting, there was no discussion on it.”

Soon after the party’s secretariat meeting, Oli met Sher Bahadur Deuba, the president of the Nepali Congress, the senior coalition partner, on Sunday evening. The two leaders also reportedly discussed the ordinance.

Congress spokesperson Prakash Saran Mahat also said that the ordinance issue might have come up during the meeting between the two leaders. “However, the Congress is not ready for it,” he said.

“If the ordinance related to the political parties is to be brought, it should be done with consensus among the major parties,” Mahat told the Post. “The chances of bringing an ordinance without a broad consensus are low.”

Some provisions of the Political Parties Act-2017 that were nullified through an ordinance three years ago have not been revived or replaced, thereby creating a legal void over registering a new outfit by splitting a party.

The Act has a provision that defines criteria under which dissidents of a political party can split the organisation and form a new outfit if they can prove the support of a certain number of central committee members and lawmakers of the mother party.

Before the introduction of the ordinance in 2021, the Act had a provision that made it mandatory for a dissident group to show support of 40 percent of central committee members and 40 percent of lawmakers from the mother party to split to form a new one.

But the Congress-Maoist Centre government led by Deuba issued an ordinance easing the process to split a party. The ordinance said a dissident group having support of 20 percent of central committee members or 20 percent of the party’s lawmakers could quit the mother party and register a new one.

The then UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal split the mother party and formed the CPN (Unified Socialist) based on the same provision of the ordinance. Also, a group led by Mahantha Thakur of Janata Samajbadi Party followed suit.

Three years after the party’s formation, a group of leaders from the Unified Socialist are said to be waiting for an opportune time to return to the mother party, the UML. The party’s former secretary Ram Kumari Jhakri, lawmakers Krishna Kumar Shrestha, among others, are reportedly in favour of rejoining the UML, the second-largest party in the House of Representatives. The Nepal-led party has 10 seats in the lower house.

Some leaders from the party accused Oli of trying to split their party by helping dissident groups to split the organisation through ordinance.

The Unified Socialist has witnessed a serious factional feud following the election of office bearers and politburo members in August. Although the party concluded its general convention on July 5, the election of office bearers and politburo members was conducted later, only to create new rifts.

“To cash in on our internal problems, some forces want to split our party." Unified Socialist spokesperson Jagannath Khatiwada told the Post. “For that, the government may bring an ordinance related to the political parties.”

There are also rumours in the political circles that the UML leadership might also be working to merge into the UML the group of seven lawmakers of the Janata Samajbadi Party, led by Ashok Rai, which was formed in May after splitting with the Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal. This will make the UML the largest party in the House of Representatives.

The Election Commission gave the Rai-led splinter group recognition as a new party, but the decision has been challenged in the court and the case is sub judice. And the party has been unable to expand its organisation due to the legal question about its recognition.

Currently, the Congress is the largest party in the House with 88 seats, while the UML has 78 lawmakers (excluding the Speaker). If the dissidents from the Unified Socialist and Rai-led group join the UML, it may become the largest party surpassing the Congress.

“How can Congress allow the government to bring the ordinance to make UML the biggest party in Parliament?” Mahat, the Congress spokesperson, questioned. “There are indeed discussions on the ordinance, but it is not necessarily that these discussions yield concrete results.”

The Political Party (Second Amendment) Bill was sent to the State Affairs and Good Governance Committee in February. After discussion in the committee, the bill was forwarded to the House for the endorsement. However, the then deputy prime minister and home minister Rabi Lamichhane withdrew the bill from the House, said the State Affairs and Good Governance Committee chair, Ram Hari Khatiwada.

Khatiwada, a Congress lawmaker, also thinks the ordinance is unlikely to be introduced.

Khatiwada said Prime Minister Oli might have discussed ordinance-related issues with Congress President Deuba, and the UML might have also held internal discussions at its secretariat meeting on Sunday.

“But it is unimaginable to think a coalition formed for political stability will create chaos by introducing the ordinance and splitting political parties,” Khatiwada told the Post. “Further, if the ordinance is brought, it should be tabled by the Minister of Law, and I don’t think the minister wants to do so.”

Minister for Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs, Ajay Chaurasiya, also denied the possibility of bringing such an ordinance. “If the ordinance is to be introduced, the ministry I am leading should take the agenda to the Cabinet,” Chaurasiya told the Post. “No one till date has suggested that such an ordinance be brought.”

The regular Cabinet meeting on Monday was expected to discuss the ordinance related to the political parties. However, the meeting was cancelled at the last minute.

Meanwhile, leaders of five opposition parties, while submitting a memorandum to the prime minister on Monday evening, have warned Oli “not to issue any ordinance with a plan to split other parties” with the goal of “imposing a totalitarian two-party system”.

Maoist Centre chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Unified Socialist chair Nepal, Rastriya Prajatantra Party chair Rajendra Lingden, vice-chair Dol Prasad Aryal of Rastriya Swatantra Party, and Aam Janata Party chief Prabhu Sah submitted the 13-point memorandum.

The prime minister had tried to allay their concerns by assuring them that he had no plans to introduce such an ordinance, according to Lingden.