As Nepal adopted the federal system while promulgating the constitution in 2015, the country’s governance was expected to be more effective with the centralised power being devolved to the seven provinces and local units.

However, in practice, provincial leaders are too dependent on the top politicians at the centre when it comes to forming and running the sub-national governments.

Though the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML have pledged political stability in the country, observers are not convinced as the two parties too are for rotating the government leadership after some time both at the centre as well as in the provinces.

The country’s mixed electoral system has been giving fractured results, resulting in no single party being able to form the government, not only at the centre but also in the seven provinces. The result is that the parties must form coalitions to constitute national as well as subnational governments.

Every change of ruling partners at the centre has immediate implications on the provincial level. This was not envisioned while drafting the constitution, according to experts.

Before the federal system, the authority was centralised. Even though the country was divided into five development regions and 75 districts, they only served as administrative hubs and centres. The new constitution gives executive as well as legislative powers to the provincial governments. Also, the local governments have all executive, legislative and judicial powers exercised by an elected council.

“The country’s federal structure was designed to devolve the central government’s rights to the provinces and local units. But, in practice, the centre has grabbed hold of the provinces’ rights, in the same manner as in the old political structure,” former lawmaker Radheshyam Adhikari of Nepali Congress, who was a member in the Constituent Assembly as well, told the Post. “This was not how the federal structure was envisioned while drafting the constitution.”

Blaming the electoral system for the prolonged political instability, the Congress-UML coalition has now vowed to amend the constitution and electoral laws purportedly to ensure stability. However, Adhikari questions the rationale behind such an amendment.

“If the political leadership allows provinces to exercise their rights without dictating their daily functions from the centre, the federal system will still work,” he adds. “But they are afraid to give up power that they have been exercising for years to the subnational governments.”

The July 1 change in the central coalition caused immediate jolts at the provinces.

As per the two-party agreement, the UML formed the government at the centre with the Congress rallying KP Sharma Oli of the second largest party.

The two parties also reached an agreement to lead governments in three provinces each while they supported the Janamat Party to form the provincial government in Madhesh.

As per the deal, the UML will lead governments in Koshi, Lumbini, and Karnali provinces in the first round while the Congress will take the reins in Bagmati, Gandaki and Sudurpaschim. Except in Sudurpaschim, the governments in the other five provinces have already been formed. Chief Minister of Sudurpaschim Province Dirgha Sodari of the CPN (Unified Socialist), which is now in the opposition coalition, resigned on Friday.

This arrangement in the provinces will change again, with the handover in federal government leadership to the Nepali Congress after two years from the day Oli was appointed the prime minister.

Prime Minister Oli, reading out the seven-point agreement from the rostrum of Parliament on July 21, said he will lead the federal government for two years, and hand over the mantle to Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba.

With the change in leadership at the centre, coalitions in the provinces too are expected to realign. “Even so, there will not be the kind of instability we saw earlier,” says Congress Chief Whip Shyam Kumar Ghimire.

With the change of power equations at the centre, the whole dynamics of provincial politics changed, he said. For instance, in under two years, the Koshi government changed five times. “Though the provincial governments’ leadership can change as per the two-party deal, the Congress or the UML will continue to lead, thus providing political stability.”

There are already signs of discord in the Congress-UML alliance.

Congress and UML leaders have already started disputing power sharing in Gandaki Province, where Congress is leading the government.

UML provincial leaders have been warning Gandaki Chief Minister Surendra Pandey of the Congress not to take long-term decisions as they expressed reservations over some of his moves.

While forming the two-party coalition, the leaders said they wanted to ensure political stability, among other things. But political observers aren’t very optimistic.

“The agreement between the two major parties says the leadership of the provincial governments will be rotated within an agreed timeframe. This will only lead to more instability,” Pitambar Bhandari, a political observer, told the Post. “The way our political parties are trying to run the federal structure, there could soon be a systemic crisis.”