The Upendra Yadav-led Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal has continuously led the Madhesh government since the provincial governments were first set up following the 2017 elections.

Over the past seven years, Yadav has always been on the governing side despite the many mergers and splits among Madhesh-based parties.

The party’s Lalbabu Raut is the only chief minister (among the seven) who completed a full five-year term after 2017. After the general elections in November 2022, Saroj Kumar Yadav of the same party has been leading the Madhesh government.

Though the Madhesh administration introduced a few good programmes, experts say, it failed to lead the government on many fronts.

“As leaders and people from Madhesh were at the forefront of advocating for the federal system, they should have done more to strengthen the system,” Sohan Shah, a Madhesh expert, told the Post. “The party not only failed to strengthen federalism but also in good governance and other parameters.”

He accused the Madheshi leaders of wasting more time bargaining with the centre instead of working to strengthen the federal system.

Shah adds a fresh anecdote to explain why the JSP-Nepal-led government can be termed a failure in Madhesh.

The federal government allocates the budget for provinces and the local level every year under the equalisation and special grants headers. As per the rule, the provincial Cabinet, in the case of the province, and local units, submit proposals to the National Planning Commission (NPC) with a demand for grants for projects. While all local units of Madhesh submitted their proposals, the provincial government failed to do so, Shah claimed.

Except for the Madhesh Province, the NPC received over 3,600 proposals from across the country for fiscal equalisation and special grants for the upcoming fiscal year, to be incorporated in the national budget.

“That was sheer negligence on the part of the Madhesh government,” an NPC official told the Post on the condition of anonymity. “We did not have such an experience where a provincial government did not apply for a significant amount of the national budget.”

After leading Madhesh politics for more than a decade and a half, Upendra Yadav lost the 2022 general election to CK Raut in Saptari-2. It was a severe blow to the veteran leader to lose the race to a newbie.

With the slogan of good and efficient governance and an anti-corruption campaign, Raut’s party won popular support in Madhesh. The new party secured 13 seats in the provincial assembly, becoming the fourth-largest party in Madhesh.

Despite this the province's government was again led by JSP-Nepal, the third-largest party with 19 seats in the assembly.

However, the JSP-Nepal’s strength further diminished after the Ashok Rai faction split the party on May 5 and launched the Janata Samata Party. Upendra Yadav has challenged the split, and the case is sub judice.

Of the party’s total 12 members in the federal parliament, seven have joined the Rai-led party. The assembly members in Madhesh, however, didn’t join the new party as the party formation process was immediately challenged in the court.

A newcomer in provincial and national politics, Janamat has been joining and quitting governments.

“Janamat Party was prepared to remain in the opposition because the party wanted nothing less than government leadership. While the UML and the Maoist Centre have decided to form a new government in Madhesh, they cannot do it without Janamat’s support, and are left with no option but to accept Janamat's candidate for new chief minister,” said Shah.

The CPN-UML is the largest party in the provincial assembly, with 25 seats, and the Congress, with 22 seats, is the second-largest. However, Upendra Yadav’s party has always led the provincial government.

Experts say that major issues of Madhesh cannot be addressed in a true sense until the big political parties ignore them.

Chandra Kishore, a Madhesh expert, also claims that the province got nothing substantive in the seven years of federal exercise. If the political parties other than JSP-Nepal lead the province, it could be in favour of the Madheshi people in many ways, Kishor said.

“Madhesh does not belong to just one Madheshi party; it belongs to the other parties as well,” Chandra Kishore told the Post. “Parties other than JSP-Nepal vying to lead the Madhesh government means they also should own the agenda of Madhesh, which is a good thing.”

Chandra Kishore added that if the new political parties lead the Madhesh Province, it could bring plurality in governance. As per the agreement reached between the three parties–CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Centre), and Janamat Party—Raut’s Janamat is most likely to lead the next government in the province.

“Raut’s party could challenge Yadav’s dominance in the province with an effective governance to establish him as a key political figure of Madhesh,” said Chandra Kishore.

Incumbent chief minister, Saroj Kumar Yadav, lost the majority in the assembly after the UML and the Maoist Centre withdrew their support for the government. This has set the stage for a floor test on Wednesday.

To claim the position in the 107-strong assembly, the chief minister needs the support of 54 members.

Though the ruling partners claim that the Unified Socialist and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP), in addition to Nagarik Unmukti and Nepal Sanghiya Samajbadi Party, will also support the government, the Unified Socialist and the LSP remain non-committal so far.

On May 30, the UML, the Maoist Centre, and the Janamat Party agreed to support Mahesh Prasad Yadav, the Janamat parliamentary party leader, as the chief minister of the Province in a meeting held in Janakpur.

On May 29, Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba invited Upendra Yadav, chair of Janata Samajbadi Nepal, Mahantha Thakur, chair of LSP, and Madhav Nepal, chair of the CPN (Unified Socialist), to his residence to discuss the political equation in Madhesh. During the meeting, three opposition parties including the Unified Socialist, a federal ruling partner, had agreed to uphold the JSP-Nepal’s leadership in Madhesh Province.

However, Ratneshwar Goit of the Unified Socialist talking to the Post said, “Our party is discussing whom we should support to form the provincial government.”