There have been three changes in the ruling coalition in the past 15 months and yet the rumours of government change refuse to die down. Leaders of the largest party, the Nepali Congress, are already advocating for a stronger coalition that can address the country’s multiple problems.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, during his floor test earlier this month, had challenged the Congress to join hands with the CPN-UML, the second largest, to topple his government, saying that he would be ready to sit in the opposition in that case.

Speaking before him, UML chair KP Sharma Oli, while endorsing Dahal in the confidence vote, had complained that the Congress had ignored his party’s overtures when it wanted to discuss the agenda of the two largest parties coming together to form a stable government and to tackle other problems facing the nation. Deuba appeared in the House of Representatives to nod to Oli’s gestures, signalling that his party would no longer refuse to discuss pressing issues with the second largest party. This supposedly left the prime minister infuriated and he made a fiery speech against perceived conspirators afterwards.

Political leaders also point to the need for constitutional amendments to remove glitches in governance and service delivery. For instance, one common blame for unstable governments is a hung parliament produced by the mixed electoral system.

The proportional representation system, politicians argue, makes it difficult for any one party to win a majority and to form a government that runs for the full term of Parliament. Even to muster the numbers necessary to amend the constitution, it is desirable for the two big parties to be on the same side, as some leaders of the UML and Congress have suggested.

The UML leaders were more vocal supporters of this idea while the Congress was in the governing alliance led by Dahal.

The Congress has fiercely criticised Prime Minister Dahal for being “unstable”, especially after he broke the alliance with the largest party early this month and joined hands with the UML to form a new coalition by also taking the Rastriya Swatantra Party and two other smaller forces on board.

Some Congress leaders are openly saying that the Dahal government is unlikely to complete another year in office.

A UML central committee member told the Post that some Congress leaders are reaching out to his party through various channels and calling for a discussion on changing the government. This will involve a new power-sharing deal, jointly tackling big issues concerning the national economy and public grievances, with the amendment of the constitution being the ultimate goal.

“If we want to address the daunting challenges before the country, we need to think seriously,” said senior Congress leader Shekhar Koirala. “Be it amending the constitution to change the electoral system, addressing public grievances, or restoring their trust in the political system, the two largest parties should come together.”

However, Koirala, who challenged Sher Bahadur Deuba in the party president election and leads a faction, said there have been no serious talks between the Congress and UML leaders on this agenda. Koirala’s views often clash with those of the Deuba-led party establishment.

“The country is in a pathetic economic situation,” Koirala said. “Due to flaws in the electoral system, no political party can win a majority. In order to address these challenges including by amending the constitution, we need an agreement among the parties.”

In that context, the Nepali Congress and the UML should come together, Koirala told the Post. Of late, top leaders of the Congress and the UML have been deliberating on an amendment to the constitution to change the electoral system, without killing the charter’s letter and spirit. As a two-thirds majority is necessary to do so, there is no alternative to the Congress and the UML coming together, Koirala stressed.

Some Congress leaders are for filling the lower house entirely with directly elected people’s representatives. Under the 2015 constitution, 110 members in the 275-strong House of Representatives are elected through proportional representation. Those backing this view say the 59-member National Assembly member can be made fully inclusive instead.

Bishnu Rimal, a deputy general secretary of the UML, however, said they are not thinking of joining hands with the Congress at this time. “If we withdraw our support [to the prime minister], the new government will be formed as per Article 76 (3). In that case, Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba would become the prime minister, which is not beneficial to us,” Rimal clarified.

Article 76 (3) of the constitution states that in cases where the prime minister cannot be appointed under clause (2) within thirty days after the date of declaration of the final results of the election to the House of Representatives or the prime minister so appointed fails to secure a vote of confidence under clause (4), the President shall appoint as prime minister the parliamentary party leader of the party which has the highest number of House members.

Article 76 (4) relates to seeking a vote of confidence by the prime minister who is elected without a clear majority and is the parliamentary party leader of the party that has the most members in the House.

“As our party chairman, KP Oli, is not going to become the prime minister, there is no point in joining hands with the Congress at this moment,” said Rimal. “That is why we say the incumbent prime minister is even stronger [than he was last year].”

But a Nepali Congress leader who is considered close to party president Deuba said some second-rung UML leaders are in touch with them. “They [UML leaders] are not hopeful that they can bring about any positive chances from the current coalition. Already fed up, they are offering to negotiate power-sharing as well as forging an understanding on larger national issues.”

The Congress leader does not expect the ruling coalition to change before the budget presentation in late May. But after that, negotiations between the Congress and the UML could gather momentum.

“It is true that we are in talks with some UML leaders, mostly second-rung leaders,” said Congress leader Min Bishwakarma. “We are exploring our options. A big section inside the UML is unhappy with their partnership with the CPN (Maoist Centre) and has been suggesting that unless the Congress and the UML get together, there can be no solutions to the country’s pressing issues such as addressing public frustration and anger.”

Moreover, some top UML leaders like its general secretary Shankar Pokharel are seen as being in favour of a strong two-party system in Nepal, which, they reckon, is not possible under the current electoral system.

“From amending the constitution, to drafting new laws, to addressing the challenges confronting the country, there is no alternative to the Congress and the UML coming together. We are in talks with them and the UML leaders also feel that the current structure of the government cannot give people hope and confidence,” said Bishwakarma.