The Gorkha Earthquake killed more than 8,000 people and destroyed over $7 billion of public and private property. The enormous scale of devastation overwhelmed us as a nation. Almost immediately, the political parties came together to expedite the constitution-drafting process which had been in limbo for over eight years. An arbitrary demarcation of the provinces, which only suited the constituencies of a small group of landowning elites in the major political parties, led to the protests that we are currently witnessing in the Tarai. For the past three months, the entire southern region has been under siege by protests from Madhesis and Tharus who have blockaded the border with India. It is widely believed that the blockade has the implicit support of the Indian establishment.

Verge of chaos

As a consequence, everyday life has been almost crippled, the country is running out of essential drugs and fuels, schools function erratically, and businesses and industry have suffered losses worth billions of rupees. In all of this, it is the people of the Tarai who have borne the brunt of the political unrest. The total number of deaths in the Tarai is now close to 50. Most of the deceased were reportedly shot dead in cold blood. However, the government, possibly the weakest in our recent history, has failed to acknowledge or mourn the dead, among them a two-year-old.

The Sushil Koirala government pushed for the constitution through the Constituent Assembly with an overwhelming majority. However, protests had erupted and the state had killed many protesters even before the constitution was promulgated in a barbaric suppression of the mostly peaceful protests by the Madhesis. An illumination was even announced. Absurd decisions like these show how our state functions. Nine policemen were also cruelly killed by mobs in Kailali. Nepal now faces restive times reminiscent of the insurgency days, and even resembling ethnic conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa.

Historically marginalised groups like the Madhesis, Janajatis and Tharus feel they have been cheated and sidelined by some provisions on proportional representation and demarcation of the provinces, among others. The near homogeneous state machinery with ‘similar’ advisors and not so novel solutions, as argued by the late Dor Bahadur Bista, has barely given Nepal the governance and institutional platforms to embark upon a journey of growth and development. It appears that the state machinery is still to understand the diverse cultures and geography of this country of 30 million people. This is one of the reasons why there has been constant struggles for decades instead of stable governance. Kathmandu and its opinion makers still believe that the Madhes movement is being conducted by a few ‘goons’ and ‘defeated leaders’. The ‘elected’ representatives have been constantly preaching the ‘unique and broad-based’ nature of the constitution, but do not have the courage to explain the same on the ground? Whether this enhances the legitimacy of the government or not is anyone’s guess.

Economic downfall

On the economic front, over 60 percent of our imports come from India. The protests at the border have immensely disrupted the flow of supplies. Birgunj, from where we import over 70 percent of our fuel, has been shut down almost completely due to the ongoing protests. Lack of fuel, among many other commodities, has crippled the Capital which is home to over three million people and a major economic hub in Nepal. We can extrapolate from the size of the GDP that the losses might be in the range of $1-2 billion. We are almost on the brink of a major humanitarian crisis as suggested by many multilateral institutions. International flights, transportation, hotels, schools, hospitals, business establishments and the people all are facing extreme hardships due to the fuel shortage. Tourism, which employs over one million people directly or indirectly and contributes at least three percent of our GDP, has been one of the hardest

hit sectors as September heralds the peak season.

Long lines for rationed fuel have become the norm for ordinary people amid widespread speculation and black marketing. The small supply of fuel sent from China has provided some relief. The government has repeatedly vowed to diversify trade, which is a welcome step given our extreme dependence on India. In general, it takes years to diversify trade. However, some members of the government have suggested that it will be done ‘quickly’. The sentiment in general is negative and bleak with hostility between the two most populous ethnic groups in Nepal. Riding on ultra nationalism, fears of losing it all have been stoked by many who appear to have no intention of articulating moderate views.

Powerful Pahades

Opinion makers in the media, civil society and political and judicial establishments belong, by design or default, to the Pahadi community. A recent article in the Nepali Times mentioned with evidence that the number of Pahades in civil service had gone up in the last decade. With each passing day of increased privation, the government and the dominant voices, mostly from the Pahadi community, have been stoking ultra nationalist fervour. A few still appear to be unaware of the demands of the demonstrators.

There is a major trust deficit between the two communities; and the government and its structures, it has to be said, have barely done anything to allay the divide and fears. To govern also means to manage internal and external relations with certain basic responsibilities and duties. This is arguably the weakest leadership we have had in recent history. For a long time, the government has been dismissing the Madhes movement as a ‘misguided’ act, which is clearly shortsighted and may prove to be an extremely costly blunder, according to political analysts. Many who have the reputation of being staunch anti-federalists say the constitution has been ‘misunderstood’ by the entire Madhesi community. As the days go by, the costs of this disconnect are bound to go up.

Gupta is pursuing a MSc in Political Economy of Development at the University of London, the UK