The deposed monarchy’s popularity in Nepal is hard to gauge. Ex-king Gyanendra Shah seems to garner some public attention wherever he goes. Over the past month or so, there have also been pro-monarchy rallies all over the country, including the most recent one in Kathmandu on Sunday. The size of these crowds is again a matter of speculation. Yet it would be an exaggeration to say that most Nepalis back the restoration of the institution, as the monarchists claim. In a democracy, the best measure of the popularity of a political party or a political ideology is the support it gets at the ballot box. In the most recent general elections in 2022, the pro-monarchy Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) got under 6 percent of popular votes, winning just 14 of the 275 seats in the federal lower house. Although this represented a significant bump from the 2017 general elections (just over two percent of votes and a single seat), the 2022 results were by no means a mandate for the return of monarchy. Since the 2022 elections, there have been indications of marginal increase in its support, mostly as a result of the incompetence of the big parties. Even so, there are no signs the country is ripe for a change in its political system.

Let us set aside the numeric calculations for a bit. Even in principle, the idea of a hereditary monarch does not sit well with this country of great ethnic, linguistic and geographic diversity. The current support base for the monarchy is mostly made up of the traditionally privileged Khas-Arya communities. The support for the institution is far-far less among the Dalits, Janajatis, Madheshis and all the other communities that were suppressed and marginalised during the repressive years of the Panchayat rule. In other words, the monarchists protesting today would like to take the country nearly 35 years back, to a time when political parties were banned, free speech was stifled and the economy was controlled. Even in vital sectors like health and education, it was only after 1990, the year of the end of absolute monarchy, that the most notable gains were made. There can be many criticisms of the federal republican system. But it is hard to argue that this country was a better place under an institution that wanted to perpetuate its monolithic rule by stifling the country’s diversity.

The monarchists are riled when they hear leaders of the political parties exhort the ex-king to contest elections if he wants to make a political comeback. But except for those who believe the monarch has a divine right to rule, this is a legitimate argument. Even if Gyanendra Shah is not to jump into the electoral fray, the political parties he supports can take his agenda to the people and seek their mandate. If he and his supporters are so confident that Nepali people are ready to give the monarchy another shot, what do they have to lose? On the other hand, if they want to compel the Nepali society to agree to restore the kingdom with brute force, they can keep dreaming.