As the midsummer heat threatens to bring a wave of the loo in the plains of Tarai-Madhes, all eyes are on the sky, expecting a spell of cloudbursts and rain. But once the monsoon enters in less than a month, we will be back to running for shelter. This year, Nepal, like much of South Asia, could experience above-normal monsoon rains, the result of La Niña, a condition associated with normal to above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall over much of South Asia. Technical experts at the 28 sessions of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-28) held in the last week of April said the second half of the southwest monsoon season will likely develop La Niña. This will also mark the realisation of the fear of two extremes—of heat and rain—in South Asia this year.

While we stand to make some windfall from the wet climate, especially in the agricultural sector, there is a huge cost attached to the onslaught of heavy monsoon rains—landslides and flooding. Each monsoon, we fear the worst disasters but make little preparation to deal with them. And if we do not prepare in advance, the bounty we expect from the monsoon will soon turn into bane. Last monsoon, Nepal witnessed 328 events of landslide, 166 events of heavy rain and 59 events of flooding, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). Ninety-six persons were killed in landslides, 19 in floods and eight in heavy rains. This means that our existing mechanisms of defence against destruction will probably not work. We might face similar or even bigger catastrophes this year, too, if we do not prepare well.

But as of now, news reports about advanced preparation for disasters are hardly positive. If the unitary state of the past was inefficient in dealing with disasters, the federal state of Nepal has its own complications. While authorities at the NDRRMA complain of a lack of human and financial resources to deal with large-scale disasters, the local levels, which are the closest and the most accessible forms of the state to the people, have similar woes. The familiar problem of a lack of coordination between the three tiers of government stands to dampen our disaster preparedness and response actions.

Another set of disasters that comes as part of the monsoon each year is water-related epidemics. Each monsoon enters with the risk of dengue, malaria, and cholera. And it is in these crucial times that our health care system does not function optimally, with health centres in several parts of the country failing to provide basic medicines and care. We cannot make lethargy a habit and wait for disasters. From daivi prakop (divine disasters) to prakritik prakop (natural disasters), we have made some advances in our understanding of disasters. It is now time to consider disasters manaviya prakop—the result of human actions—and intervene on time for risk reduction and long-term resilience.