For the past three years, Nepal has been recognised globally for achieving a remarkable conservation milestone: the successful doubling of its wild tiger population from an estimated 121 in 2009 to 355 in 2022. This historic achievement is the result of decades of coordinated efforts, including the expansion of protected areas, strengthened anti-poaching enforcement, habitat restoration, and robust community engagement, particularly across the Tarai Arc Landscape (TAL).

However, this success brings new and pressing challenges. Tigers now face habitat saturation and dispersal bottlenecks in addition to emerging threats from climate change, particularly in the Himalayan foothills and mid-hills regions.

Nepal’s climate has been warming at an average rate of about 0.056 degrees Celsius per year since 1971, with faster warming observed in high-altitude regions, reaching up to 0.08 degrees Celsius annually in some mid-hill and trans-Himalayan areas. Over the past five decades, the country’s average temperature has risen by approximately 1.6 degrees Celsius to 2.0 degrees Celsius. This warming has caused unpredictable rainfall patterns, increased flooding and droughts, and caused the degradation of wetlands and grasslands critical for supporting tiger prey. As a result, key tiger habitats in areas such as Chitwan, Bardiya and Shuklaphanta are undergoing significant changes, marked by drying wetlands, fragmented forests and the rapid spread of invasive species.

According to recent camera-trap studies, tigers are now being recorded at elevations previously considered unsuitable, such as around 2500 metres above sea level in the Dadeldhura district and 3165 metres in Ilam district. These records indicate a northward and uphill range expansion. These sightings are consistent with the global trend of wildlife shifting to higher altitudes and latitudes in response to rising temperatures.

While high-altitude movement may reflect a degree of ecological adaptation, it also indicates climate-induced stress and displacement from primary lowland habitats. A 2024 study from Nepal revealed that tigers inhabiting hilly terrains expend two to three times more energy navigating steep, rugged terrain compared to flatlands. This has significant ecological implications, increased caloric demands and greater dependency on large prey. It also raises the risk of human-wildlife conflict when natural resources are scarce. Additionally, the physical strain and elevated stress associated with such conditions can negatively impact tiger reproduction and survival rates.

A healthy prey base is fundamental to successful tiger conservation. However, several parks in Tarai are experiencing a decline in large ungulates such as sambar and swamp deer. Although smaller prey like Chital remain abundant, they do not meet the energy needs of adult tigers. Additionally, livestock encroachment in buffer zones intensifies the problem. When natural prey is insufficient, tigers may turn to livestock, increasing the risk of retaliation killings and undermining conservation improvements.

Between 2019 and 2023, Nepal reported an increase in tiger attacks on humans and livestock in and around Bardiya, Chitwan, and Banke. Key drivers include habitat encroachment and expansion of physical infrastructure, agricultural expansion, unsustainable forest resource extraction and climate-induced habitat fragmentation.

While the Tarai Arc Landscape aims to connect tiger habitats across Nepal and northern India, several challenges persist. Over 60 percent of identified dispersal corridors experience high levels of human disturbance. Infrastructure such as the East-West Highway and proposed railways obstructs natural tiger movement. Many mid-hill corridors fall within community-managed forests that lack formal protection. Tiger dispersal through these fragmented and climate-sensitive corridors is essential to maintain genetic diversity and avoid inbreeding in isolated populations.

As tigers move uphill, their habitat may begin to overlap with leopard and snow leopard territories. The consequences, not fully understood, may include increased competition for prey species, displacement of snow leopards from their traditional ranges, along with altered predator-prey dynamics and overall ecosystem balance. This growing overlap urgently requires focused research and monitoring to inform effective trans-Himalayan Conservation strategies.

Nepal’s conservation strategies are robust, supported by laws and policies such as the National Parks and Wildlife Conservation Act (1973) and the National Trust for Nature Conservation Act (1982), which aim to bolster government-led conservation efforts. However, climate adaptation is not fully integrated into tiger management plans, and mid-hill and highland ecosystems remain underrepresented within the protected area network. Additionally, disconnections between science and policy hinder the swift implementation of urgent ecological recommendations. The current Tiger Conservation Action Plan (2023-2032) offers a range of opportunities to address conflicts, promote coexistence, and enhance multi-landscape connectivity across Nepal and at the transboundary level.

The role of local communities, especially through buffer zone user committees, eco-clubs, green force clubs, community-based anti-poaching units and community forests, has been instrumental in reducing poaching and restoring habitats. For climate-resilient tiger conservation, we need to strengthen community-led monitoring and climate response and provide sustainable livelihoods tied to conservation. Lastly, ensuring benefit-sharing mechanisms from carbon finance, eco-tourism and payments for environmental services will also cater to tiger conservation. Climate change threatens not just tigers, but the forests and watersheds upon which communities depend. Co-management strategies must address both tiger survival and human well-being.

Nepal has made significant investments in SMART patrolling, camera trapping, genetic monitoring and other advanced conservation tools. However, to ensure sustainable tiger conservation, it is essential to implement long-term movement ecology studies using cutting-edge technologies. Priorities should include mapping climate vulnerable zones and refugia, using high-resolution data, assessing energetic stress, reproduction rates, and disease vulnerability, and strengthening research collaboration between the National Trust for Nature Conservation, academic institutions and international research partners.

Nepal must look beyond 2025 to anticipate what tiger survival will require by 2050. Tigers are ecological indicators of forest health, prey abundance and the resilience of entire ecosystems. Their survival under a changing climate tells a broader story of forest ecosystem vulnerability, water security under glacier retreat, and the challenge of human-nature coexistence in the face of rapid development.

In the future, Nepal’s tigers may not be limited to Chitwan, Bardiya or other lowland protected areas. They may increasingly rely on corridors stretching toward the cloud forests of the Mahabharat range and potentially even the Himalayan foothills. If Nepal can plan a path for tiger conservation under the mounting stresses of climate change, it will serve as a global model.