The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a crucial role in shaping global climate action. As the world’s leading scientific body on climate change, its reports inform ambitious policies through the global climate change process, most recently the Global Stocktake in the international climate negotiations and national climate commitments.

Last month, government representatives met in Hangzhou, China, for the 62nd IPCC meeting to finalise the outline of three major reports. The five-day meeting, which was extended by an additional 22 hours, resulted in the approval of the outlines of the reports and the 2025 budget, advancing its preparation. However, discussions on the publication timeline were postponed. Despite geopolitical complexities, the meeting achieved most of its objectives.

What is the IPCC?

The IPCC is a UN body established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). With 195 member states, the IPCC provides periodic scientific assessments on climate change, its risks and potential solutions for adaptation and mitigation.

Thousands of scientists and experts volunteer to assess scientific literature and compile reports that serve as a foundation for policymakers. The IPCC consists of three working groups to assess the physical science basis of climate change: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability and climate change mitigation. The Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories also develops methodologies for measuring emissions and removals. IPCC assessments are a key knowledge base that national and international climate policies and negotiations draw on.

Seventh assessment

The IPCC publishes comprehensive assessment reports every five to seven years. The Seventh Assessment Cycle (AR7) formally began in July 2023, with plans to produce three Working Group reports. These will contribute to a Synthesis Report, expected at the latest by 2029. However, these reports must be published by 2028 to inform the second Global Stocktake.

This cycle also includes a Special Report on Climate Change and Cities, a Methodology Report on Short-lived Climate Forcers and a Methodology Report on Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies, Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage. These reports will provide essential scientific input for policymakers worldwide and cannot be overlooked for the crucial milestone in 2028, where the second Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement will be held.

Nepal’s key takeaways

For the second Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement to encapsulate the best available science, all three IPCC Working Group reports must be published well before COP33 in 2028. The proposed timelines allow for this, ensuring scientific rigour and inclusivity. However, the process could be delayed. If that happens, the reports may lose relevance, weakening global climate commitments and burdening vulnerable countries. It will only benefit past and current major emitters.

As global temperatures rise and emissions increase, Nepal must reference different warming levels in the reports. In the meeting, Nepal emphasised the need to assess climate impacts, risks and loss and damage at 1.5 degrees Celsius and beyond. Since 1.5 degrees Celsius is already too high for vulnerable countries like Nepal, scientific clarity on temperature thresholds is critical for informed decision-making.

Compared to previous assessment reports, this time, the IPCC has provided more explicit guidance to experts to comprehensively address mountain-related climate issues in the Seventh Assessment Cycle. Working Group I is tasked to establish a strong scientific foundation, while Working Group II will include a dedicated cross-chapter paper on mountains, including a focus on other chapters. This focus is historic, as mountain systems were previously underrepresented in IPCC reports. Nepal, being a Himalayan nation, has strongly advocated for this inclusion.

Loss and damage is now prominently featured across the chapter outlines of all Working Groups. Working Group II will have a dedicated chapter assessing risk, quantifying Loss and Damage and exploring financial responses. This is a significant step in ensuring that countries like Nepal, which face disproportionate climate impacts, have access to relevant scientific insights for policy action.

Nepal joined other nations in raising concerns about speculative technologies like Solar Radiation Management (SRM). While some propose SRM as a solution to cool the planet by reflecting sunlight, it remains highly uncertain and risky. The country urged IPCC experts to outline these uncertainties in the assessment, ensuring that SRM is not mistakenly seen as a legitimate climate solution.

Climate finance remains a major challenge, particularly in terms of adaptation and loss and damage. Nepal called for detailed assessments of finance flows, needs, gaps, effectiveness and accessibility. The guidance provided to experts will ensure that the Seventh Assessment Cycle includes robust analysis of financial instruments, methodologies for tracking finance flows and the costs of inaction. This will help highlight the gaps and urgency of scaling up finance for developing countries.

What’s next?

With the chapter outlines agreed upon, the next step is to nominate experts to serve as authors for the respective chapters. This process must be inclusive, ensuring the representation of developing and vulnerable countries. Scientists from regions experiencing the worst climate impacts must be actively involved in shaping AR7.

The IPCC must ensure that the three Working Group reports—covering the physical science of climate change, impacts and adaptation and mitigation—are released before COP33 in 2028. These reports will be instrumental in guiding the second Global Stocktake and strengthening global climate action.

The latest IPCC meeting in Hangzhou was a critical step in advancing climate science for policy action. While challenges remain, the progress made ensures that the Seventh Assessment Cycle will be scientifically rigorous and policy-relevant. For Nepal, the emphasis on limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, mountains, Loss and Damage and climate finance is a significant achievement. The next step is to ensure these priorities are effectively reflected in the report’s content.

As the world faces escalating climate risks, timely and inclusive scientific assessments will be vital for shaping effective responses. Delays are not an option for countries on the frontlines of the climate crisis.