The Himalaya are known for their unmatched beauty and natural splendour. They are also impenetrable buffers that geographically separate the Tibetan plateau from the Indian subcontinent. India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, once remarked that the Himalaya stood as a natural border for India against China. Nehru’s observation in the Indian parliament sparked controversy in Nepal. Nepali leaders quickly admonished his comments as akin to undermining Nepal’s sovereignty. In his attempt to subdue India’s fear about the development of the Araniko Highway with Chinese assistance, King Mahendra later remarked that communism wasn’t about to arrive in a taxi.

More than half a century has passed since Nehru and King Mahendra made their formative observations. Yet, while much ground has shifted since then, the Himalayan frontier remains a highly contested and fortified region. The Himalaya have a significant political bearing, even outside our immediate neighbourhood—in the ever-evolving global politics. Nepal needs to identify the growing power games at play and tread strategically to ensure its autonomy in devising a foreign policy that maximises its interests amid turbulent times.

Lumbini’s significance

One cannot undermine Lumbini’s importance both in terms of history and current geopolitics. Most Nepalis feel a profound connection with Lumbini because Buddha was in what is now modern-day Nepal. However, the pathetic and shoddy state of the infrastructure reflects the injustice that Lumbini has faced in terms of policy and vision. Mikel Dunham, author of the book The Buddha’s Warrior, chronicles the Khampa incursions into Tibet from Mustang and sheds light on the importance of Lumbini. Sitting at the charming Shambala Garden in the erstwhile Shangri-La Hotel in Kathmandu in the initial years of the peace process, Dunham remarks, “What Vatican means for the Christians, Mecca for the Muslims, Lumbini is the same for Buddhists”.

Recently, Beijing has demonstrated unparalleled interest in Lumbini and its development, which is of critical importance for multiple reasons. First, Buddhism is among the world’s most popular religions, and its cultural linkages across most Asian societies provide enormous socio-political leverage. Second, Buddhism is a commonality across most East Asian countries, which could potentially serve as a tool for effective mobilisation to meet political objectives. It is also interesting to observe the increasing influence of Buddhism in the West, where most people are turning to Eastern philosophies to seek solutions to life problems.

The political opportunity Lumbini provides China is also substantive. Above all, China’s ambitious plans in Lumbini are aimed at providing leadership to the development of Lumbini to establish China as the natural and undisputed leader of the Buddhist world. China’s insecurity is natural, as it was only after the-then US President Richard Nixon visited Beijing in 1972 that America’s shadow war in the Tibetan plateau against China’s invasion of Tibet came to an end. Not only is China most serious about its hand in selecting the next Dalai Lama, but with the development of Lumbini, China aims to control the narrative of Buddhism, which it hopes will put the lid on the Tibetan issue with a lasting solution that no longer challenges China’s national security.

Seventy years after Nehru’s observation that the Himalaya are a natural barrier to India’s security, today’s policymakers in New Delhi cannot find comfort in the mighty Himalaya providing a buffer to India’s security concerns. In fact, the revolutionary advancement in infrastructure means that the Himalaya are no longer impenetrable and unlike Mahendra’s observation, communism wasn’t going to come in a taxicab. The improvement of infrastructure linkages between China and Nepal has dynamically altered the security landscape of the Himalayan region. Not just taxi cabs, many Chinese tourists and businessmen now frequent the roads of Nepal with their vehicles. Nepali policymakers now dream of Nepal serving as a transit point for trade between India and China. Some politicians even suggest that since Nepal is in a geopolitical hotspot, the fruits of a transit country will soon catapult it towards economic prosperity.

Realistically, the infrastructure linkages between China and Nepal serve two purposes. First, China’s eventual goal is to use the shortest route possible to access the enormous markets of South Asia. The open border between Nepal and India provides Chinese goods unprecedented access to the Indian subcontinent—home to a quarter of the world’s population. Second, in an era of geopolitics dominated by muscle diplomacy, improvement of road linkages can prove advantageous for nations aspiring to acquire strategic superiority against adversaries. Sino-India ties have been fraught with differences over the line of actual control, which remains disputed. Further, the fall of the Hasina government in Bangladesh has been a tremendous setback to India. The previous regime led by Khaleda Zia had provided passage for arms and movement for the Metei (an ethnic group native to Manipur) rebels aiming to destabilise northeast India, posing enormous security challenges to India.

The needed response

The recent initiative by Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba to incentivise economics as a critical tool for starting discussions on foreign policy is creative and timely. However, Deuba must also include feedback from security agencies at the heart of policymaking. Feedback from the business community is necessary to craft a foreign policy that represents the contemporary aspiration of a modern Nepali nation striving for enhanced economic opportunities. As South Asia represents a rich civilisational history, our foreign policy must incorporate that in deepening and expanding our cultural connectivity. Geography should be our utmost priority while determining the practical approaches to shape our foreign policy objectives.

Nepali leaders and political parties should cease vacillating from one foreign power to another to meet short-term political goals. New Delhi, Beijing and Washington are questioning our strategic autonomy. Therefore, Nepal must give up the idea of a transit state in the foreseeable future as Kathmandu suffers from a serious trust deficit in the international arena. Currently, the approach must be inward, with Nepal first. The mantra is simple: With India, we are linked geographically and through civilisational ties; the open border makes our ties unique and special. China is our time-tested partner, and we can learn a lot from it. The West provides Nepal with the avenues needed to expand its strategic outlets.

Thapa is the country director of the Meinhardt Group.