Fossil fuels are being rapidly displaced by decarbonised sources of energy but not everyone is yet onboard. The resolution adopted at the end of COP28 last December was described as the "beginning of the end" for the fossil fuel era. While such an announcement was met with much cynicism, maybe it was indeed the turning point.

The past six months have provided even more evidence that fossil fuels are being rapidly overcome by the new technologies of decarbonisation: Wind, solar, batteries and electric vehicles. These are now growing at super exponential rates showing that businesses, governments and communities are learning how to implement them in cities and regions.

All fossil fuels are either plateauing or showing negative growth. The peaks for coal, oil and gas show how rapid their decline will be. The responses from the fossil fuel lobby have been largely of derision and instead of showing that they are in decline and must diversify into these new technologies, they have opted for even bigger growth targets.

Many oil and gas projects are showing growth targets beyond 2050 into 2070, in a bid to find finance from a world that is more and more backing the net zero-only finance option as demand for fossil fuels declines.

Fossil fuel lobby sows confusion

This is causing political chaos as governments are caught between supporting climate action and supporting big fossil fuel companies promising massive investment. This confuses the public. Australia is an example.

In the two years since its election, the federal Labor government has created many innovative programs and funds to enable the energy transition. But at the same time it is backing oil and gas project expansion that is seven times more climate-damaging than the gains in climate mitigation from the other programs.

Chevron's carbon capture and storage project at the Gorgon gas field—the biggest demonstration of the technology in the world—has failed to meet its targets, casting doubt on the continued use of gas.

Overviews of the technology are increasingly casting doubts on its commercial viability. Due to their impact on the global climate it is hard to see more than a small fraction of the fossil fuel projects ever getting their finance. It’s thus likely the fossil fuel lobby strategy to push ahead—as though COP28 never happened—will begin to collapse. It's expected that COP29 will confirm the support for a rapid decline in fossil fuels.

Risk of COP29 backfiring

Like COP28 it will be convened by an oil and gas-based nation. But the data are beginning to make the campaigns for more fossil fuels look like childish tantrums. And the natural world has been fighting back with the climate causing severe storms like the huge floods that hit Dubai in the months after COP28. No place is safe from global warming.

Finance will have the major stake as they must invest in returns that last into the 2050s and these are increasingly threatened by the data trends and the climate itself.

The Australian oil and gas company Woodside had 58 percent of its shareholders vote down the company's climate strategy, including its dependence on carbon capture and storage. COP29 will backfire unless more is agreed to accelerate the phase out of fossil fuels.

Fossil fuel companies will increasingly find that unless they seriously join the diversification of their investments, they will disappear.

The examples of Orsted in Denmark and Neste in Finland have demonstrated diversification to renewable-based fuels is commercially feasible by companies that previously worked on fossil fuels. Much more is needed and can be expected at COP29.

UN climate chief Simon Stielle has put the world on notice: "We've got two years left to save the planet. As we inch towards the point of no return, each year takes on more importance than the last." But the first steps were taken at COP28 by recognising that the era of fossil fuels is over.