Three things stand out in Maoist Centre Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s ongoing prime ministership. This is his third stint at Singha Durbar. He has made three governing alliances since the November 2022 parliamentary elections, and his party holds the third position in the House of Representatives. However, it’s hard to list three notable things his government has accomplished in the 14 months since he took office.

There’s a Hindu mythology behind earthquakes. The tortoise, or ‘kurma’, is one of the 10 incarnations of Lord Vishnu that supposedly takes the weight of the earth on its shoulders. When it has to shift the burden from one shoulder to another out of tiredness, the earth receives a jolt.

Many question why Dahal had to switch partners so frequently, and some say he’s just been shifting the weight of government from one shoulder to the other. The resultant jerk triggered only minor aftershocks, though.

Nepalis are used to such tremors. They seem to care little about them, as the change of guard at Singha Durbar is quite frequent. The last general elections led to a hung parliament. The largest party, Nepali Congress and the second largest CPN-UML have not had the chance to lead governments; they have only been parts of Dahal’s shaky cabinet. Moreover, Dahal himself has been under threat of his administration being toppled amid a ceaseless tug-of-war between domestic forces and the perceived play of foreign powers. Nepal’s two giant neighbours especially hold diametrically opposite views of the establishment in Kathmandu.

After ditching the Congress and embracing the UML, Dahal said he would continue to throw up surprises as the Marxism he knew is not static but continuously evolving. Change is the character of Marxist polity, he said, cleansing himself of any guilt of constantly switching partners.

Nepal’s new constitution is getting notoriety for producing unstable governments, mainly due to a large chunk of it coming from the proportional representation category of elections, in which seats are more evenly distributed between political parties. What makes this instability narrative worse is that any change in the political equation in Kathmandu sets off a chain effect in the provinces. Having already been toppled twice in their second term after the new charter of 2015, provincial administrations are poised for a third realignment in 15 months.

The growing public perception of federalism in Nepal is that it is too costly for the impoverished country. This is gaining traction as provincial balances often tip and elected officials are increasingly viewed as consumers of public funds and facilities rather than servants of the sovereign people.

Amid growing disenchantment against economic hardships and a movement of a political section to revive Hindu statehood, public order faces greater challenges. While many campaigns by the Dahal government to punish the corrupt have fizzled out, people are losing faith in the political establishment. This emboldens the disruptive forces.

A reason Dahal gave for ditching the Congress is that it had failed to quell the growing call for Hindu statehood in the party, even as secularism is a fundamental characteristic of post-2008 Nepal. Despite such claims and counterclaims, the country faces multiple serious challenges. People are losing their traditional livelihoods, and even traders and industrialists are complaining about business difficulties. The government’s revenue collection has remained below target year after year. In this situation, the citizenry cannot stomach more policy instability and unjust political manoeuvrings.

While becoming the prime minister in December 2022, Dahal said his ascendency to the top executive post would be in the national interest as the agenda of transitional justice, a crucial part of the peace process initiated for the mainstreaming of the rebel Maoist force, remained unfinished. That continues to be the case, and his administration has not demonstrated good results. This leads to difficulties in justifying his role and why his party, holding 32 House seats, should get so much prominence. That is a public rationale, though.

Dahal has given the Congress and the UML a good run in politics. After Deuba refused to make Dahal the prime minister soon after the election results were out, Oli offered him the PM’s position so the Congress-Maoist alliance would collapse. Later, Deuba similarly outfoxed Oli and took Dahal into his fold. The political musical chair continues, frustrating the public by showing that the politicians will again conspire to plunder national resources and entertain their cronies while the commoners’ plight continues. Some of the blame for Dahal’s failures goes to Oli and Deuba as well.

Like his contemporaries, Dahal’s credibility is quite low. Observers say favouring his close relatives is among his weak points. Even his coalition rivals are rumoured to be using that weakness. The Maoist chief had become battle-hardened before laying down arms in 2006, but he himself has made public admissions of being sentimental or emotional. A fallout of this trait is that he sometimes blurts out blunt truths: That the Congress-Maoist alliance would make a “comfortable” coalition for India, and that he had inflated the combatants’ size to around 30,000 from their war-time strength of some 7,000 right under the United Nations observers’ nose after coming above ground.

Not all the undercover dealings of politicians who make fiery speeches of nationalism do good for the country. A common worry about weak administrators is that they could sign treaties with foreign rulers to increase their longevity in power and hide them from public view. One such prime minister in the past was Mohan Shumsher, who signed a friendship treaty with India in 1950, subjugating some of Nepal’s national interests.

Dahal has some of the country’s shrewd politicians to tackle and manage. UML’s Oli is his most powerful rival, while the mostly quiet Deuba is active in his meetings and political dealings. Deuba has made no secret of his mission to torpedo this emerging bloc. Nepalis could benefit from their camaraderie but seem destined to suffer from their rivalry, or that’s the immediate reading.

The biggest test for Dahal is whether he can stem the flow of Nepali students and youths going abroad for jobs or residency, unravelling the country’s industries in the process. As the nation’s youth lose faith in their politicians, they see little chance of prosperity at home. A country without youth awaits ruin, but visionary leadership and conscious effort can change that. It’s up to Dahal whether to soar in his mission or submit to the fate of a haphazardly governed poor nation. His renewed role may be successful if he clinches three major tasks, to say the least, in the next three months—economy, farmer welfare and education.