During the monsoon in 2022, 119 people lost their lives, another 115 people were injured, and 1,006 houses were completely destroyed, while 32 people are currently missing due to monsoon-related disasters in Nepal. But it is not only the monsoon rains that have created havoc–; sixty people lost their lives, and 157 were injured due to the accompanying thunderstorms. The monsoon is inevitable, but are we prepared this year to minimise losses of lives and properties?

The National Seasonal Outlook for Monsoon Season June–September 2023, released by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology on May 4 forecasts lower than average rainfall in most parts of the country. However, we should not forget that the forecast is probabilistic with a 35-55 percent chance, withthe possibility of monsoon-induced disasters still being highly probable.

A study conducted by the Ministry of Forests and Environment in 2021 shows that about 647 people die on average each year from climate-induced disasters in Nepal. The report also notes that the average economic loss per year is 2,778 million Nepalese Rupees or about 0.1% of the country’s GDP. Floods, landslides, and droughts are the major climatic hazards in Nepal and are likely to intensify in the future due to climate change.

At present, about 8 percent of Nepal is flood-prone, while 59 percent of the area is landslide-prone. The 2022 World Bank Country Climate and Development Report alerts that floods and landslides have been the most frequently occurring hazards over the past 40 years and are expected to increase even further as climate change accelerates. There is no doubt that the monsoon is intensifyinge with the extreme rainfall and flood events that trigger landslides and flash floods.

The floods in 2017, 2019, and 2021 are proof that extreme floods with an expected return period of 20 or 40 years do not occuronly during those time periods. Monsoons are getting fierce and will continue to threaten the very livelihoods of millions of Nepalis. If the government and the people do not take adequate measures for monsoon preparedness and response, the number of losses and damages will escalate.

Nepal has still made remarkable advancements in mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Management in recent years. The Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act 2017 and Rules 2019, the National Policy for Disaster Risk Reduction 2018, the National Disaster Response Framework, the Local Government Operation Act 2017 and many other acts, policies, frameworks etc., have defined the roles and responsibilities of all three tiers of the government, and have strengthened the institutionalisation of disaster preparedness, response and recovery from the federal to the local level.

The 17th meeting of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Executive Committee chaired by Deputy Chairperson and Home Minister Honorable Narayan Kaji Shrestha decided to prepare the Integrated Monsoon Preparedness and Action Plan that defines the roles and responsibilities of different agencies in minimising damage this monsoon. The government has also mandated the District Disaster Management Committees and the Local Governments to update the Disaster Preparedness and Response Plans and carry out flood simulation exercises.

However, the plans fail in terms of tangible actions for adequate preparedness before the disaster and its aftermath.. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) issues flood bulletins twice daily during the monsoon period along with three days of weather forecasts and alerts. Similarly, increasing flood early warning systems and mass SMS in major river basins have also been crucial in preserving people’s livelihood in recent years. This is also justified as there are fewer human casualties in those river basins.

While weather forecasts, alerts and early warnings are effective in mitigating damages, major improvements tare required to enable the government and humanitarian agencies to support the people at risk. To illustrate, the weather forecasts issued by the DHM are very generic. For example, the weather forecast of 15 May 2023 said, “There is a chance of light rain with thunder/lightning at few places in Koshi, Bagmati and Gandaki provinces.” As a DRR practitioner, this confused me. How probable is it that it will rain in Biratnagar or Solukhumbu, or Koshi province? There is also an urgent need for downscaling the forecast from provincial to district and municipal levels and to give the probability range (e.g., 30%) of the events. As we all know. there is always some uncertainty in weather forecasts.

But it is not just about the technical limitations of the forecast. There is also a huge gap in terms of the dissemination of and access to these forecasts, alerts and forecasts. I recently visited 10 municipalities in the Dhanusha and Mahottari districts and askedthe communities and local government representatives about the weather forecasts, monsoon bulletin and alerts. Surprisingly, the rural people living along the Kamala River basin and in the flood-prone areas of Dhanusha and Mahottari are unaware of the weather forecasts and alerts even though information is easily available on social media.

The 2021 census states that nearly 70% of all households in these two districts have smartphones, and more than 30% of the households have internet access. It is surprising to learn that people who are vulnerable to floods during the monsoon do not search for weather forecasts that are readily available through online searches.

I talked to some municipalities’ DRR focal persons and local media persons to better understand the causes as to understand why there is scant awareness regarding weather forecasts and early warnings in these two districts. I learned that there are two major challenges/limitations. First, the forecast is very non-specific at the provincial level, and the local media or municipalities could not determine if it is applicable to their areas. Second, people are unaware of the advancements and accuracy in Nepal weather forecasts made in recent years. Thus, the trust level is very low.

This clearly shows that there are limitations at both ends, which can cause losses of lives and properties in the upcoming monsoon season. We earlier witnessed the devastation caused during the October 2021 floods. The DHM, which issues the weather forecasts, needs to take additional measures for the timely dissemination of risk information to the wider population and to address the need of the end users who can trust and respond to them. Similarly, there is an urgent need to create awareness among vulnerable people to access the available risk information that would enable them to take necessary actions to immediately prepare and respond to the floods.

All limitations and constraints aside, timely sharing of risk information and taking necessary actions remains essential as always. Be it a monsoon with heavy rainfall; early warnings can save many lives. Or, for a monsoon with less rain, timely information can help the farmers and government take necessary actions to decrease losses to monsoon crops, thereby enhancing food security. Early warnings during monsoon are vital in either case.

National and local media could play a very crucial role in informing people about weather forecasts and alerts as well as building trust to take necessary actions. The media can also bring out the needs of the rural people and analyse the effectiveness of the weather forecasts and alerts in averting losses and damages. Officially, the monsoon begins on June 1; so, let us all unite to disseminate the weather forecasts and early warnings to ensure that the losses of lives and properties due to the monsoon in 2023 is minimal. United, we can achieve this!