After a long hiatus, the Pashupatinath temple is all set to open its doors for devotees from December 16, 2020. One of the holiest shrines of South Asia and a much-frequented place of worship for Hindus from all over the world, the premier Shaivite temple had never remained closed for so long in its recorded history.

The onset of the Hindu nuptial season has revived the business of so-called party palaces that serve as convenient venues for wedding receptions. Attendants in face-shields serve drinks with gloved hands at large gatherings where it's almost impossible to maintain the required social distance of two metres between attendees. Guests pull their masks to the chin to eat and drink with friends, family and fresh acquaintances.

Except for gyms and movie theatres, most commercial enterprises are up and running. Industries were already in operation—once the initial confusion of the lockdown guidelines in March were cleared. Business may not be booming, but some spas and beauty parlours have also begun to welcome clients. The usual crowd of customers is still missing, but restaurants remain open till late in the evening.

Life seems to be coming back to normal in Kathmandu for those that don't have a Covid-19 victim in their immediate families. In private conversations, optimistic observers in South Asia have begun to expect what analysts call a 'V-shaped recovery' that sometimes occurs after a recession. Even though such a simplistic sanguinity is a reflection of wishful thinking rather than of realistic hopes, the process of revival in a relatively weak economy isn't impossible to kick-start.

In the initial phase of the pandemic, migrant workers had begun to trek back to their far-flung villages for safety. In a bid to escape rural poverty, workers have since started to come back to urban centres where service industries are humming once again. Public transport has resumed. Small eateries selling noodles and momos are back onto the streets with pots, pans and plastic plates.

Migrants are queuing up at Gadda Chauki near Mahendranagar or Jamunaha in Nepalgunj to go back to their work stations in India. Aircraft fly day and night from Tribhuvan International Airport to ferry unskilled workers to West Asia. The remittances that they send back home fuel consumption that then help raise revenue and fund government expenditure.

However, the 'V-shaped' recovery doesn't occur as easily as a ball bouncing up from the ground. When calamities wreak havoc with economic activities, the fall is often sudden and steep. The ascent from the bottom of the pit requires concerted effort, takes longer, and looks more like a trudge than a lift-off.

The government's policies and priorities play an important role in bringing normalcy back to the political economy of the country. The central bank has to create confidence in lenders as well as borrowers with appropriate monetary strategies. The profit sector has to pull itself up and identify new opportunities of investment.

Most of all, leadership quality during and after a crisis makes all the difference. In the post-pandemic state of physical, mental and financial exhaustion, the world needs a team of unifiers everywhere and in every sector. What it has instead are a bunch of dividers that draw their strength from rabid polarisation of politics and society.

A look at Supremo KP Oli's flippancy is enough to show the kind of leadership several countries of the world are saddled with during the worst pandemic to hit humanity in over a century.

Populist surge

Implications of pandemic fatigue upon physical and mental health, weakening compliance with social norms, and safety considerations are widely discussed and publicly disseminated. Somewhat less noticed is the propensity of clutching at straws to escape the state of misery. One such indication is the unnecessary exuberance over the victory of Joe Biden in the US presidential elections.

While freedom from Trumpism anywhere is indeed welcome, it will take a while for the new incumbent of the White House to reclaim the leadership of the free world. Meanwhile, rightwing populism is unlikely to abate anytime soon.

President Donald Trump has rightly been described as the disruptor-in-chief that will continue to have a negative impact upon American politics. In Prime Minister Narendra Modi, appropriately called India's divider-in-chief, Trump has a political soulmate who rules by whims and fancies and draws his strength from insistent polarisation. Despite monumental mishandling of the pandemic by his government, Modi’s popularity continues to rise.

In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro is going from strength to strength: it's being said that as the Covid-19 death count rises, so does Bolsonaro's popularity. Even as the pandemic rages, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's approval rating has been creating new records. Then there are quintessential strongmen such as the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to say nothing of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who consider themselves even more indispensable at a time like this.

President Trump is on his way out, but the force of Trumpism is so enduring that even President-elect Biden has been forced to declare an 'America-first' policy. The authoritarian wave is likely to outlast the pandemic for there is no antidote to rightwing proclivities. During times of crisis, people are looking for a self-assured saviour. Learned leaders are full of self-doubts. Swashbuckling politicos can take the masses round and round in circles to retain their central position. Unfortunately, science has no vaccine for the widespread credulity of ethno-nationalists that lap up every lie of demagogues such as the Supremo of Nepal keeps spouting.

Pandemic geopolitics

Just as political strongmen use a crisis to strengthen their internal legitimacy, diplomats of powerful countries devise stratagems to consolidate and enlarge their areas of influence. The Chinese claimed a lead in the race for the Covid-19 vaccine. The Russians were not far behind in displaying their virological prowess. The winner, however, seems to be the Americans; so far with at least two vaccines with considerable efficacy. Their long-term side-effects remain to be seen, but expectant countries are waiting for their share of the doses to check the pandemic.

It's an axiom of geopolitics that friendship between unequal countries is fine, but financial or physical assistance to the poorer partner isn't charity. The recipient has to respond in a manner that the donor expects. The Chinese are a great benefactor of Nepal, but the government in Kathmandu has to keep swearing by its 'One China' policy at frequent intervals to display its unwavering loyalty.

Once Beijing begins to airlift millions of doses of Sinovac Biotech vaccines, the political leadership in Kathmandu will be morally bound to listen even more carefully to the constructive suggestions of overt and covert interlocutors from the northern neighbour. The Russians may come up with their own offers that Baluwatar may find impossible to refuse. Since there are no free lunches in international relations, the vaccine initiatives of powerful nations will pull Nepal in different directions. Such moves often strengthen the status quo, as few outside players are willing to bet on untested characters.

The defiant smirk of Supremo Oli may make Pushpa Kamal Dahal seethe, but the pandemic has failed to make a dent in the indispensability of the maximum leader of the Khas-Arya ethno-nationalists.