People living in the Tarai are likely to have a difficult summer as both maximum and minimum temperatures could remain above average in the plains in the pre-monsoon season.

According to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, which issues seasonal forecasts of monsoon and winter, the chances of the pre-monsoon period remaining hot and dry are very high.

“Though we do not generally forecast weather conditions for the pre-monsoon months of March, April and June, various weather models show hot and dry days ahead,” said Bibhuti Pokhrel, spokesperson for the department. “Like in the past year, the temperatures [minimum and maximum] are likely to remain above-average, and people in the Tarai region may face heatwave conditions.”

Last year, heat wave conditions affected hundreds of people in the country’s southern belt. Heat wave occurs when the maximum and minimum temperatures at a location are unusually high continuously over a three-day period.

Exposure to excessive heat can result in headache, nausea, weakness, dizziness and fainting. Heat-related illnesses include heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heat cramps and heat syncope (fainting). Heat stroke is the most severe form of heat-related illness and requires immediate medical attention.

Several districts witnessed a severe water crisis due to the rise in temperatures; schools were shut down in some places, and incidents of forest fires also exacerbated. Hospitals in the region had reported an uptick in the number of patients suffering from fever and urine infections, among other illnesses.

“Maximum temperatures have already started rising, as we can feel growing heat in the Kathmandu valley,” said Pokhrel. “Rain could lower the temperatures, but there is a chance of below-normal rainfall in the pre-monsoon season.”

Meanwhile, the Meteorological Forecasting Division said that the effect of the low-pressure area formed near Chhattisgarh of India will cause light rainfall in some regions of Koshi, Madhesh and Gandaki provinces until Sunday.

“Rainfall will start on Friday evening, and some areas of Bagmati Province will also witness light rain on Saturday,” said David Dhakal, a meteorologist at the division. “Maximum temperatures will fall slightly in the places witnessing rainfall, and temperatures will start rising again.”

On Friday, Bhairahawa recorded 34.6 degrees Celsius, followed by Nepalgunj 34.4, Dhangadhi at 34.3, Dharan 32.5, Birendranagar 32.1, Ghorahi 31.7, Janakpur 31.6 and Simara 31.3, Dipayal 31.2, and Pokhara 29 degrees Celsius. Kathmandu recorded 27.5 degrees Celsius.

Dhakal said the temperatures will rise in the coming days, which could lead to heatwave conditions.

Nepal is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to the climate crisis and has witnessed frequent extreme weather events over the past decade and a half. The country witnessed some unusual patterns of rainfall triggering devastating landslides and floods in the past couple of years. Experts have linked these incidents to the recent phenomenon of climate change.

The average annual maximum temperature of Nepal rose by 0.056 degrees Celsius between 1971 and 2014, according to a study conducted by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in 2017.

Globally, extreme temperature events are increasing in frequency, duration and magnitude. Scientists blame climate change for an early onset of summer and intense heat.