In the four months since theleaders of the two global superpowers last met, Xi Jinping has overseen a surgein China’s trade with the world while Donald Trump has struggled with falling ​approval ratings athome.

That shift in fortunes hastempered expectations for their summit in Washington this week, analysts say,with Xi in no rush to make concessions and Trump constrained by ‌a costly war with Iranthat has hurt both his popularity and Americans’ wallets.

While thorny issues like Taiwanmay surface, the main focus of the September 24 meeting is whether the leaderswill signal an extension to a trade truce struck last year that averted a majorshock to the global economy.

“Xi is not really looking foranything tangible. He wants to extend the gentleman’s agreement with Trump sothat China has time to fortify itself,” said Jon Czin, a foreign policy expertat the Brookings Institution who ​formerly served as China director at the US NationalSecurity Council.

‘Living in XI’s world’

White House officials havesought to downplay the potential for major breakthroughs. US Treasury SecretaryScott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier ​He Lifeng helmed preparatory talks in New York on Sundayaimed at teeing up some potential agreements on AI guardrails and trade innon-sensitive products. That is a far ⁠cry from Trump’s vow when he returned to office in 2025 touse tariffs to address a trade imbalance with China that was “killing” theUnited States.

But since agreeing the trucewith Xi in October of that ​year, his attention has been divided among myriad otherforeign policy battles, from the wars in Iran and Ukraine to disputes withEurope over free speech.

China has faced its ownchallenges, such as slowing domestic demand and a ​protracted propertycrisis, but the export juggernaut that Trump sought to tame has kept roaring inwhat economists are increasingly referring to as China Shock 2.0.

China’s global trade surplus ison pace to top $1 trillion for a second straight year.

While US efforts to curb thecheap parcels that online retailers such as Shein and Temu rely on have worked,more than half of the roughly 6,500 product categories China sold to the US sofar this year have grown compared to 2025.

A delegation of Chinese business​leaders,potentially including some firms facing US regulatory scrutiny as they seekgreater market access, is set to accompany Xi to Washington.

The Trump administration “thoughtthey could use massive unilateral pressure to force China to make concessions, ​and that did not occur,”said Scott Kennedy, an expert on the US-China economic relationship atWashington-based think tank CSIS.

“Now this is Xi Jinping’sworld, and we’re all living in it.”

Taiwan and trade wins

If Xi is in the driver’s seatas ‌analystssuggest, ⁠that will further unnerve US allies in Asia who expect theChinese leader to push Trump to soften Washington’s support for Taiwan, thedemocratically governed island claimed by Beijing.

Xi repeatedly asked him aboutTaiwan when they met in Beijing in May, including about arms sales andWashington’s resolve to defend the island, Trump told reporters.

The US president described apending $14 billion arms package for Taiwan as a “negotiating chip” withBeijing.

Some officials in Taipei andTokyo worry he may be tempted to cash in that chip for political wins ahead ofNovember’s midterm elections, which could prove challenging for his RepublicanParty.

That could include Chinesepurchases of Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab jets or farm goods, or commitments tocurb the ​flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals that have fuelled the ​US opioid crisis.

“China-US ties have become moretransactional,” ⁠said Wu Xinbo, a professor at Shanghai’s Fudan Universitywho advises China’s foreign ministry.

While Washington may want toprioritise trade talks, for Beijing, the US approach to Taiwan could be key, hesaid.

“If you accommodate our concernon the Taiwan issue, then we would be willing to accommodate your concerns onother issues, be it ​law enforcement or on purchases of US agricultural products,”Wu said.

Putting pressure on Iran

Washington also sees Xi asuniquely able to exert pressure on Iran to bring ​an end to the war ⁠that has dragged Trump’s approval rating to the lowest ofhis political career.

However, Xi has shown littleinclination to do so. Reuters earlier this month reported that Beijing isselling billions of dollars’ worth of goods to Iran through a sanctions-evasionscheme. China’s foreign ministry says it is not aware of such a scheme.

US threats last month ofsecondary sanctions on countries doing business with Iran - which Bessentcalled an “Economic D-Day” - appear not to have yet been wielded against Tehran’s⁠largesttrading partner.

That ​is more evidence,analysts say, that Trump is eager to keep relations with Xi steady as hefocuses his energies elsewhere - an ​arrangement that also suits the Chinese leader.

“Both Xi and Trump feel it’squite helpful to have stability in the relationship so that they can focus onmore pressing things,” said Ruby Osman, senior geopolitical researcher at theTony Blair Institute for Global Change.

“For Trump, that ​is Iran. For Xi, that isbuilding out China’s domestic resilience for whatever comes after Trump.”