The far-rightAlternative for Germany (AfD) took first place in state elections innortheastern Germany on Sunday, voting projections showed, delivering the worstresult for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s mainstream conservative party since1949.

“It’s a disaster,” Merz said after exit polls werepublished, although he signalled he would fight ‌on as chancellor and continuehis reform agenda after speculation that a bad result could prompt him toresign.

The AfD was set to win 38.3% in the state ofMecklenburg-Western Pomerania, ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD)at 35.4%, according to projections on ARD public television. Both parties werefar ahead of Merz’s conservatives, who at the latest count had fallen to 4.9%,below the 5% threshold needed to enter the state parliament and indicating theymay be excluded altogether.

Sunday’s result has given the AfD its second top-placefinish this month at the state level. The party leads in national opinion pollsbut has been kept from power by the other main parties’ refusal to work withit.

In another election on Sunday in the capital Berlin, thefar-left Linke party was at 25.3% while the vote share of Merz’s conservatives,who currently govern the state in ⁠a coalition with the SocialDemocrats, tumbled to 19%. The AfD also gained in strength in the typicallyliberal city, hitting 16.3%. It is the first time Linke has topped polls in thestate, where it wants to nationalise housing from corporate landlords and caprents.

Merz vows to continue with reforms

Sunday’s results may not prove a knock-out blow for Merz,but his low approval ratings, unpopular reforms and the triumph of the AfD inan earlier state election in Saxony-Anhalt have left his future in the balance.

“It will now become even more difficult for the federalgovernment to muster the courage and political support for a fundamental reformprogramme,” Marcel Fratzscher, president of the Berlin-based DIW researchinstitute, told Reuters.

If the ruling coalition parties stick to their red lines, hesaid, “political paralysis will become entrenched, economic weakness willpersist, and the likelihood of an AfD election victory in 2029 will risefurther.”

The SPD’s popular state premier in Mecklenburg-WesternPomerania, Manuela Schwesig, had climbed in the polls ahead of Sunday’s vote byopenly criticising both the AfD and the Merz-led federal government’s reforms.

Schwesig also said the AfD had won votes by criticisingGermany’s support for Ukraine. She had supported the Nord Stream pipelinescarrying Russian gas through her Baltic Sea coast state into Germany beforethey were blown up in 2022, but later changed her position.

“First, in my state, many people oppose support for Ukraine,both financial and ‌military,” she said.

“And ⁠a second point: Many peoplealso wish to see energy flowing through Nord Stream again.”

German Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, who is also the SPDleader, signalled he wanted a change of course, citing voters’ concerns overpension reforms.

But Merz instead doubled down on a reform agenda he sayswill revive sluggish growth in Europe’s largest economy.

“What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness,and patience,” he said. “I would go so far as to say that these reforms are theantidote to the authoritarian poison that is penetrating ever deeper into oursociety, driven by the allure of authoritarianism.”

The elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largelyrural state in the formerly communist east, and Berlin follow the September 6election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD came close to the rare feat of winning⁠an absolute majority.

In just over a decade, the party — which wants to take toughaction to deport foreigners with no right to stay in Germany, restore energyties with Russia and quit the euro — has transformed itself from a fringeeurosceptic movement to the country’s most popular party.

Its success in Saxony-Anhalt, which it sees as the firststep towards winning federal elections due in 2029, has sent shock wavesthrough Europe.

Sunday’s results underscore the advances the AfD has made inrecent years and raise fresh questions over ⁠the “firewall” strategy, underwhich the other main parties refuse to enter coalition agreements with it.

Merz has struggled

Elected last year on a promise of reforms to return Germany’sstagnant economy to growth, Merz has struggled to win over voters, as a streamof communication missteps served to compound resentment over unpopular pension,tax and healthcare reforms.

Disillusion with his government has hung over the campaignsin both Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where voters have focused onsoaring energy and housing ⁠costs. Merz presented aconsumer relief package on Friday that included tax cuts on gas and diesel.

Several people who voted in Mecklenburg-Western Pomeraniasaid living costs were a major concern.

“Here in Schwerin, with these wages, you can hardly affordanything anymore,” voter Carlotta Heick told Reuters in the state capital.

One elderly man criticised funding for foreign aid. “We needour money here, for our country, for children and pensioners,” he said, askingnot to give his name.