One swallow does not make a summer. But the latest federal election results from Saptari-2 constituency does hint at a larger change—caste-based voting in Madhesh is on the decline.

Janamat Party chair CK Raut secured a landslide victory in Saptari-2, with a wide margin of 18,063 votes, beating Janata Samajbadi Party chair Upendra Yadav in the process. Raut got 35,042 votes against Yadav’s 16,979 votes.

Yadav had won the 2017 polls from the same constituency.

In the run-up to the 2022 elections, local observers had asserted that caste-based politics would continue to play a big role in Saptari-2. Many expected Yadav to win again.

The results, however, tell a different story. Traditional caste-based politics seems to have failed in the constituency this time.

Yadav-dominated politics had been a major factor shaping caste-based voting in Madhesh politics. Upendra Yadav couldn’t consolidate Yadav votes even though many projected him as the ‘torchbearer’ of the Madhesh movement, mainly after he had spearheaded the Madhesh agitations in 2007 and 2008. He was arguably the most powerful leader in Madhesh after successfully establishing Madhesh as a potent force in national politics.

Sohan Shah, an observer of Madhesh politics, said the result in Saptari-2 suggests caste-based politics does not always pay in Madhesh. Candidates’ popularity and emotional connection have come to matter more. “In Saptari-2, locals, disenchanted by the previous winner’s poor delivery, started seeing Raut as a ray of hope. They connected with him, emotionally,” said Shah.

Shah added that a big chunk of voters in Madhesh remains silent before the election and after careful calculation votes for the most popular candidate. “This time, Raut’s popularity impressed these silent watchers.”

The Madhesh observers also said that the marginalised castes and ethnic groups other than the Yadavs had voted against Upendra Yadav. “Marginalised castes voted for Raut, even though there are only a few Rajbhar [the caste Raut belongs to] voters in the constituency,” said Chandra Kishore, a Birgunj-based political analyst.

In Saptari-2, there is a large chunk of Yadav-Muslim votes, including more than 15,000 Yadav voters. Upendra Yadav was strategically wooing Muslim voters this time. He even succeeded in getting Khalid Siddiqui elected from the Janata Samajbadi Party to the National Assembly. A chunk of voters there also belong to Pachkuniya (Hindu Madhesis middle-income, non-Yadav castes).

The results thus far suggest Muslim votes largely shifted to Raut, while Yadav votes were near equally divided between Raut and Upendra Yadav, said Kishore.

So why did the Yadavs not rally behind Upendra Yadav as expected?

Chandra Kishore added that after signing an 11-point agreement with KP Sharma Oli and quitting the secessionist agenda to join national politics in 2019, Raut had started preparing for the polls. “Tactically, he appealed to low-income voters who are daily-wage earners. They saw hope in CK Raut,” said Chandra Kishore.

Though the caste factor has not fizzled out and still plays a major role in shaping elections in some areas in Madhesh, according to Chandra Kishore, a wind of change is blowing. “The marginalised castes have, together and robustly, started claiming their rights and spaces in politics alongside the high castes. They have realised the election is the perfect time to do so,” he said.

Other factors also played a role in neutralising caste-based voting in the province. Candidate-background was as important, observers say.

Ajay Dwivedi from Parsa-1 had a neck-and-neck fight with Pradeep Yadav, before losing the polls with a narrow margin.

Pradeep Yadav of the Janata Samajbadi Party has been elected to the House of Representatives from Parsa-1 for a second time with 22,537 votes. Dwivedi, on the other hand, received 20,917 votes.

Dwivedi garnered so many votes despite belonging to a caste with only marginal presence in the constituency. “The reason is his strong background as a Nepali Congress leader, and the public’s portrayal of him as an intellectual candidate,” said Shah, the Madhesh observer.

Not only the Yadav votes, Muslims are also seen as a consolidated vote base in Madhesh.

But Ekbal Miya from the CPN-UML who ran with the backing of the Janata Samajbadi Party lost to Unified Socialist’s Krishna Kumar Shrestha (Kisaan) with a margin of more than 10,000 votes.

Miya had been elected from Bara-4 as a candidate of the then Rastriya Janata Party in 2017 polls. This time around, Miya defected to the UML after the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party denied him a ticket.

Miya was expected to get most of the Muslim votes—there are around 20,000 Muslim voters in the constituency. But, even with the UML’s support, Miya could not compete against Shrestha, a recent migrant to the district from the hills. In 2017, Shrestha was elected from Tanahun. Miya’s change of fortune also suggests traditional voting along ethnic lines is in decline.

Similarly, UML’s Achyut Prasad Mainali won in Bara-1, beating Umakant Chaudhary of the Nepali Congress by more than 9,000 votes.

Chaudhary had defeated Mainali in the 2017 elections from the constituency.

So, what had happened in constituencies like Bara-4 and Bara-1?

Miya and Chaudhary were not challenged by a popular candidate—someone like CK Raut—who had caught the imagination of the Madheshi people.

Rajanikant Jha, another observer of Madhesh politics from Sarlahi, said the lacklustre performances of the leaders elected earlier had intensified the anti-incumbency sentiment in Madhesh.

“Madheshi people have also started to realise that they need to look beyond the candidates’ caste if elections are to open the doors to regional development and prosperity. People who had trusted the leaders of their caste are now disenchanted and are in search of new faces,” Jha told the Post.

In the Madheshi constituencies where the Pahadi [hill] castes are in large numbers, the candidates throwing their hats in the ring with the hope of luring Pahadi votes also lost, for instance in Sarlahi-1.

There, Ram Prakash Chaudhary of the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party emerged victorious with a margin of 6,464 votes. He defeated Man Bahadur Khadka, an independent candidate.

According to local political observers, Khadka had contested the polls with the hope of receiving votes from Pahadi communities who constitute almost half the total voters in the constituency. But Khadka lost.

Marital bonds between the Madheshi and Pahadi castes and the electoral alliances between the Madhes-based parties and big parties have also led to the declining influence of caste-based politics, say observers. As a result, elections this time were comparatively peaceful. The relations between Madheshis and Pahadis have also gotten better over the years.

Many leaders of hill origins have been securing victories in the province, where over 80 percent of the population belongs to the Madheshi community.

Two examples of this from the recent polls are Bara-1 winner Mainali and Madhav Kumar Nepal in Rautahat-1.

CPN (Unified Socialist) chair Madhav Kumar Nepal was elected to the House of Representatives from Rautahat-1 with 33,522 votes. He beat the UML’s Ajay Kumar Gupta by a margin of 6,600 votes.

Nepal was elected from Kathmandu-2 in 2017 polls.

“The people who voted looked beyond caste in Rautahat-1. Most residents of the constituency belong to Madheshi castes,” said Kishore, the political analyst.

“This is a sign of improving relations between hill and Madhesh,” said Jha, the political observer from Sarlahi. “Candidates from Madheshi castes should now be encouraged to contest elections from hills and vice versa.”

Jha believes growing literacy in the province is also responsible for people’s search for visionary candidates rather than those from a particular community.

“This,” added Jha, “should be the takeaway message from these polls.”