The Armed Police Force (APF), the country’s border security and riot control force, submitted a confidential report to the government three years ago warning that organised attempts were being made to foment religious and ethnic divisions across the Tarai. The report recommended urgent political and administrative intervention, but officials say its findings received little attention from the country’s leadership.

The report, presented to then prime minister KP Sharma Oli and home minister Ramesh Lekhak, urged the government to closely regulate organisations operating on religious and ethnic lines, alleging that some Muslim and Hindu groups based in the Tarai were receiving support from national and international non-governmental organisations.

A senior APF officer familiar with the report said the force had repeatedly briefed the political leadership on the risks posed by rising communal polarisation, but its recommendations were largely ignored.

According to the report, obtained by Kantipur, the APF identified increasing efforts by extremist groups to provoke confrontation in the name of religion and ethnicity. It warned that Nepal should learn from communal violence elsewhere in South Asia and address disputes before they escalated into widespread unrest.

“Nepal must learn from the recent violence in Manipur, India, as well as the loss of life and property caused by ethnic, religious and linguistic conflicts in various countries, and resolve ethnic and religious disputes in a timely manner,” the report states.

When the report was prepared, India’s northeastern state of Manipur had descended into violent clashes between the Meitei and Kuki communities, leaving hundreds dead and displacing thousands. Citing those events, the APF warned that even seemingly minor disputes could rapidly spiral into large-scale communal violence if left unaddressed.

The report called for stronger coordination among security agencies, local administrations and political leaders to preserve communal harmony before tensions reached a breaking point.

APF spokesperson Deputy Inspector General Netra Bahadur Karki said the force routinely conducts security assessments to identify emerging threats.

“The APF continuously analyses issues that could create security challenges in the country,” Karki told Kantipur. “It is difficult to assess any issue without detailed study, so such analyses are a routine process. As for any specific report, I would need to examine it first.”

Former Additional Inspector General Narayan Babu Thapa, who previously headed the APF’s Operations Department, confirmed that such intelligence assessments are regularly conducted, particularly in border districts and areas considered vulnerable to communal conflict.

“The APF has closely analysed incidents in places such as Krishnanagar, Nepalgunj, Rautahat and Birgunj, where relatively minor disputes later acquired communal overtones,” Thapa said. “The recent incident in Sunsari also began with a relatively trivial issue before escalating into violence. Security agencies and the government now need to exercise even greater vigilance.”

The report identified 14 political parties and organisations that, according to the APF, were actively mobilising around religious, social, cultural and ethnic issues.

An officer involved in drafting the report, prepared by the APF Intelligence Bureau, said investigators found repeated attempts to exploit ordinary local disputes to inflame religious sentiments.

According to the officer, incidents ranging from disagreements over moving vehicles obstructing roads and constructing compound walls on public land to disputes over church construction and inflammatory speeches delivered at public gatherings had all been used to provoke confrontation.

“The pattern suggested that certain groups were looking for any pretext to stoke communal tension,” the officer said.

The report documented 25 incidents linked to religious or ethnic issues between the fiscal years 2020-21 and 2023-24, up to the time the report was compiled. It also recorded eight incidents related to identity-based politics.

According to the assessment, districts requiring close monitoring included Rupandehi, Sarlahi, Dhanusha, Banke, Saptari, Morang, Bardiya, Kapilvastu, Bara, Jhapa, Mahottari and Sunsari, where repeated tensions between communities had been recorded.

The report also identified several religious leaders allegedly involved in extremist activities.

Officials familiar with the matter said then APF chief Raju Aryal personally briefed senior political leaders on the report’s findings, but the recommendations failed to translate into policy measures.

“The situation has evolved considerably since then, but it is still not too late,” Aryal told Kantipur. “The current tensions in Madhesh require immediate political dialogue. The government must bring both sides together and facilitate discussions.”

Aryal said efforts to restore trust should involve political parties, civil society organisations and community leaders rather than relying solely on security measures.

A senior Nepal Police officer said the force’s Special Bureau, which monitors terrorism, separatist movements and extremist activities, has also repeatedly warned the government about growing communal polarisation across the Tarai.

According to the officer, the bureau prepared an extensive assessment of a religious group, documenting the group’s organisational expansion across several Tarai districts. The report states that the group has used social media to spread inflammatory messages and has organised marches in which participants openly carried domestic weapons.

The Special Bureau warned that increasing mobilisation by competing religious and identity-based groups could heighten the risk of future communal conflict.

Its assessment noted that although many such groups remain organisationally weak, Nepal’s changing socio-religious environment could provide opportunities for fringe groups to incite unrest in an effort to gain political relevance.

“Except for a few groups active in the Tarai and the hills, most remain relatively inactive,” the report states. “However, changes in the country’s socio-religious landscape could allow them to incite communal violence at any time in an attempt to establish their presence.”

Both the Nepal Police and APF reports concluded that social media has become a major driver of communal polarisation.

The agencies recommended continuous monitoring of online platforms, prompt removal or blocking of inflammatory content where legally warranted, and wider public awareness campaigns aimed at discouraging hate speech and misinformation.

The Special Bureau also recommended engaging artists, political leaders, and other respected public figures as goodwill ambassadors to promote social harmony and counter divisive narratives.

Retired Additional Inspector General Tek Prasad Rai, who spent many years serving in the Special Bureau, said religious conflict presents one of the most complex security challenges because it quickly erodes trust between communities.

“The Special Bureau constantly examines who is trying to undermine Nepal’s long tradition of tolerance and how they are doing it before making recommendations to the government,” Rai said.

He said preventing further escalation requires restraint from all sides.

“No one should engage in hate speech at this sensitive time,” Rai said. “Meetings involving all political parties, community representatives, religious leaders and other stakeholders should be organised from the district level to the centre.”

Rai also urged the government to strengthen its response to misinformation and AI-generated deepfakes circulating on social media, saying such content could rapidly inflame communal tensions.

The Nepali Army has also been closely assessing the security implications of growing religious and identity-based tensions.

According to military sources, the issue has featured prominently during the army’s high-level Divisional Commanders’ Conferences, where senior commanders regularly review emerging security threats and inter-agency coordination.

A military officer said discussions have examined disputes ranging from the controversy surrounding the Pathibhara cable car project in eastern Nepal to religious tensions reported in several districts.

“These issues require dialogue rather than confrontation,” the officer said. “The objective is to prevent local disputes from escalating into wider security challenges.”

Military sources also confirmed that the army has been closely monitoring the situation following Sunday’s communal clashes in Sunsari, where one young man was killed and nine others were injured as police attempted to disperse violent crowds.

The army has increased patrols in affected areas as a precautionary measure while continuing to coordinate with other security agencies.

“Nepal has long contributed to peacebuilding in countries affected by communal conflict through United Nations peacekeeping missions,” the officer said. “That experience reminds us that preserving unity at home requires collective responsibility, dialogue and restraint from all sides.”