According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, early warning system (EWS) is an “integrated system of hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication and preparedness activities, systems and processes”. This system allows individuals, communities, governments, businesses and other groups to take prompt actions to mitigate disaster risks before hazardous events occur.

Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) has a centralised approach to sending messages directly through SMS and social media posts to the potential flooding region. However, most early warning communication still depends on volunteer community members who directly face the disasters’ brunt to reach all households, including those without mobile phone access. Since 2006, Nepal’s two biggest telecom providers, Ncell and NTC, have disseminated alerts during impending disasters for floods and expanded them to multi-hazard events in 2024. NGOs have been working to establish upstream and downstream linkages along small river systems with reoccurring floodings, which often receive little attention.

Dinesh Rana, Secretary of Kanj Community Disaster Management Committee (CDMC) from Laljhadi Municipality of Kanchanpur district of Sudurpaschim province, explains how the early warning system works: Community gauge readers and task force members circulate the warning messages to the downstream community if the rainfall is high upstream and the river water level reaches near the warning level in Belkundi. Mangal Prasad Chaudhary, an EWS task force member from Tilki, Kanchanpur, calls them if the water level crosses 3 meters in Tilki, and Rana’s team disseminates the message to their community members and prepares to save the property and go towards a safe location.

Early warning saves lives only if it leads to action. EWS is a proven cost-effective disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation measure that protects lives, livelihoods and ecosystems during climate-related hazards. Evident from the flood EWS development and strengthening in Kanchanpur, the affected population has significantly reduced, and there are now near zero deaths post-2011, particularly in the communities that did not initially receive early warning information before the flood. Similarly, early warning in the August 2023 Kagbeni flood saved lives despite the extensive infrastructural damages.

However, an inadequate understanding of the system and disregard for safety can be detrimental. There have been frequent deaths during floods due to negligence and carelessness of the people, such as diving into floodwaters to collect washed-away logs, treating floods as exotic sightseeing opportunities, or even conducting activities near potential flooding areas despite warnings.

A critical link was missing in the Babai River basin (Bardiya district) during the 2014 flood. Even though the gauge reader informed the authorities about the flood, they only grasped the gravity of the situation when it was too late and when more than 100 people had already died. The July 2024 Kanchanpur flood claimed the lives of three girls in Punarbas who went to take a bath, even after receiving the potential flood early warning message. Most accidents occur because the locals do not consider the river's depth before carrying out any activities on the riverbank. This calls for installing flood guideposts in different areas to inform people about the height of land on the riverbed.

Lessons from the 2024 floods

Although the government mostly invests in hardware infrastructures, focusing on raising awareness and behavioural change is imperative in early warning approaches. A recent 2024 flooding saw the local government sending rubber boats from the Local Emergency Operation Center (LEOC) to flood-impacted communities to evacuate the people. However, the households sent their livestock on the boats for evacuation, fearing theft and loss of property more than their safety.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology takes responsibility for sending these messages, but the capacity and mechanism to share information about potential risks or impacts are far from enough. Moreover, there are shortcomings in operationalising the common alerting protocol. Coordination is still lacking in translating and reaching communities with the message of the flood and its impact. Connecting community context with those messages is another challenge. This July, Kanchanpur recorded the highest rainfall in 78 years; the DHM rain gauge station at Dodhara Chandani recorded the highest rainfall in Nepal at 624 mm in 24 hours.

The flood that followed highlighted variations in rainfall between the Sundarpur synoptic station, Hanuman Dagar station and Dodhara Chadani station, although the aerial distance is within 6-7 km. These are the evidence of the increasing micro-climatic variations in Nepal. This demands that we understand forecasts and their potential impacts better. Along with increasing the density of existing gauge stations for better forecasts, there must also be a focus on promoting localised EWS.

Towards early action

With technological advancements in warning systems already in place, we should not wait to respond after a disaster. We must promote early action to prepare for disasters through better forecasts and identification of early actions. Early action should be ingrained in the mindset of the government and community members, informed by trusted localised forecasts with a longer lead time to plan and respond. It should be supported by a decision support system that anticipates the hazard and its impact and provides a set of pre-identified recommended early actions.

We must build trust in the shared early warning messages to ensure actions are taken. Building trust in the disaster EWS, including the increasing and off-seasonal weather events, will attract more attention and investments. Proper utilisation of EWS will be a challenge without accurate localised forecasting capabilities. All tiers of government and existing EWS-responsible institutions must be connected with community-level EWS to strengthen communication channels and response efforts. Greater collaboration is required to incentivise DRR activities, attract private sector engagement and investment and retain trained volunteers within the community to support disaster response.

Equally important is raising awareness among the stakeholders, including communities, about the disaster EWS and its scope. This should consider human behaviour and response during disasters, as interest in EWS typically spikes only when rain begins to impact communities. While technological advancements and community reach are commendable, we should regularly review and reflect on EWS's progress. This allows for gap assessments and awareness of challenges actors face within the EWS communication channel and brings them together to enhance EWS governance.