While briefing about her official visit to India, from August 18 to 22, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba told the Nepali Congress (NC) central committee meeting on Friday that New Delhi’s response to Nepal's new coalition government was ‘positive’. This was a very cautious diplomatic statement. The term ‘positive’ in a diplomatic sense is unambiguously suboptimal in contrast to [being] ‘excited’ or ‘enthusiastic’. There is no hiding the fact that New Delhi was ‘okay’ with the replacement of the Moaist-CPN (UML) coalition by the NC-UML, but it has only sent lukewarm signals on the ascendance of KP Sharma Oli as prime minister, once again.

Prime Minister Oli has made it a point to invite his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, through Foreign Minister Rana to visit Nepal; Oli has yet to receive a similar invitation despite newly appointed Indian foreign secretary Vikram Misri paying a two-day official visit to Nepal just two weeks ago. Many have viewed this as the lingering trust deficit between Oli and Modi.

Be that as it may, New Delhi left no stone unturned to welcome Foreign Minister Rana and exude utmost warmth seldom seen during a foreign minister-level visit from Nepal. Rana had reportedly planned a private visit to Delhi for routine health check-up. On short notice, the South Block not only elevated it to a full-fledged official visit with an immediate invitation from her Indian counterpart, S Jaishankar, but also managed to schedule her appointment with Prime Minister Modi. Additionally, Modi accorded high importance to this meeting by involving key policymakers, including Foreign Minister Jaishankar, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Foreign Secretary Misri, Principal Secretary PK Mishra and Indian Ambassador to Nepal Naveen Srivastava.

Shifting the neutral gear

Equally rare in history, Indian and Nepali media alike positively portrayed Rana's India visit as a new stepping stone to pace the Nepal-India relations stuck in the neutral gear for at least a decade. Several serendipities worked: First, India needed a convincing diplomatic feat to reassure its neighbours that Modi's ‘neighbourhood first’, an overarching foreign policy instrument, has not faced a comprehensive debacle, even after the recent regime change in Bangladesh—India supported Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was compelled to resign and flee her country. Moreover, there has been a rise in anti-Indian politics in other neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka and Maldives.

Second, Rana is not unfamiliar to Modi and Delhi’s power corridors. As the spouse of the five-time prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, she has had several opportunities for introduction and interaction with them. This certainly provides comfort in rolling the conversations, which are valuable in diplomatic dealings. It may seem trivial, but unlike many Nepali ministers, her English language skills and aristocratic sophistication come to her advantage in diplomacy.

Third, the New Delhi establishment seemed unapologetically keen to recognise her as a (new) trusted friend in the Congress outfit and see her succeed in the first-ever ministerial responsibility. This has sent tremour waves to national politics back home. The coalition partner UML perhaps sees New Delhi's treatment of Rana as the manifestation of her special relations, something beyond what the government as a whole enjoys. Also, quite a few old-school compatriots in her party have now anxiously raised their eyebrows, assuming that India's trust may inch her forward in a bid to the party’s larger political role and government.

Substantive issues

Beyond extensive paraphernalia, both sides claimed to have covered a broad range of issues of mutual interest, including the infrastructure and other projects related to cross-border railways, roads and bridges, Integrated Check Posts, petroleum pipelines and digital financial connectivity. Moreover, the increase in electricity export, reaching 1,000 megawatts, and the opportunities available in power sector cooperation after implementing the long-term power trade agreement were highlighted by both sides after her visit.

However, a few contentious issues need deeper explorations than the tangential treatment they received in these bilateral talks. Straight air routes through Indian aerospace for the international flights operated to and from Nepal's newly constructed international airports in Bhairahawa and Pokhara, and clarity on the future of Gurkha recruitment in the Indian army are a few issues Nepal wants to see resolved soon. Operationalising electronic fund transfer gateways as the two prime ministers agreed a year ago and hassle-free processing to implement India-funded ‘small’ local development projects are on India's priority card.

According to her post-visit briefing, Rana’s priority list included implementing the Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project and constructing a cross-border bridge over the Mahakali River connecting two countries. It was natural to show interest on her part, as the project agreement was signed 28 years ago when her husband became prime minister for the first time. The Mahakali border river, the location of the project site, runs along the political constituency of Deuba in Nepal’s far west. Furthermore, Rana made Kailali her political base in the same province.

Regarding the Pancheshwar Project, India and Nepal’s priorities have diverged for a long time; the former preferred to optimise water use, and the latter focused on electricity production. Currently, as the power trade arrangements are gradually implemented, the interests seem to be converging. The peripheral issues of upper or lower riparian benefits, their components and pricing should no longer serve as constricting impediments. The enthusiasm rekindled in Kathmandu and Delhi to implement the project must not sublimate for decades, like in the past.

Rana has had many firsts this time around. She became a minister for the first time, and it was her first official visit to any foreign nation as a minister. Besides, this is her first political and diplomatic responsibility, independent of nurturing her husband's political persona. Finally, her insight in navigating the complex geopolitical manoeuvres confronting Nepal will prove her mettle as a capable future leader of the country. And, her ability to manage the political waves that she created, possibly by winning the confidence of influential southern neighbours, may add at least some score to her future leadership bid in the Nepali Congress.