Monarchists would have us believe that the restoration of the throne is the panacea to Nepal's troubles. They argue that the monarch, in this case, the former king Gyanendra Shah, will reign in venal politicians, stand for national unity, protect Nepal’s sovereignty, and spearhead economic development. Judging by the increasing size of Shah's followers, it appears that people are listening. Until a few years ago, the monarchists consisted of conservatives and direct beneficiaries of the authoritarian monarchy of the past. Now, people with no political affiliation throng every public event attended by the former king.

Among major political parties, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) is the only one that fully supports the idea of restoring the monarchy, although there is a growing ambivalence among the rank and file of other national parties. The RPP rose from the fringes to become the fifth-largest national party by winning 14 parliamentary seats in the 2022 elections, a victory for their twin ideologies of constitutional monarchy and Hindu nationalism. The number of votes it secured rose from 196,782 in the 2017 elections to 588,849 in 2022. Public rallies of the RPP and other pro-monarchy forces continue to grow.

Why is the support for the monarchy growing despite opposition from major political parties, and what can we realistically expect if, indeed, the monarchy returns? What does the history of countries where monarchy was restored tell us?

Growing popularity

Several factors, including abuse of political power by the leaders of all three major political parties, pervasive corruption, deteriorating public service, and a sense of despondency have compelled the people to look for a stark alternative to the current political structure. They see that alternative in the monarchy. If the political parties had delivered what they promised 16 years ago, when Shah abdicated the throne, no one would have thought of his return now.

The RPP and the Hindutva movement in India are actively contributing to the prospect of monarchy as an alternative force. India’s ruling Hindu nationalist party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), wants to spread Hindutva to Nepal. RPP’s agenda of Hindu nationalism and “Hindu Rashtra” aligns with the Hindutva movement. The alignment has inspired stealthy cooperation between the BJP and the RPP.

BJP spokesperson Bizay Sonkar Shastri had in 2021 said that Nepal “was, is and will always remain a Hindu nation”. Professor S.D Muni, a well-known Indian Scholar in Nepal, was quoted by the Diplomat, claiming that “Hindu Nationalism has become Modi’s government's main agenda in Nepal".

When Shah visits India for “pilgrimage”, he is treated as royalty, particularly by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath, a hardline Hindutva nationalist and a close Modi associate. In 2015, when he was a parliamentarian, Adityanath wrote to the Prime Minister of Nepal: “Nepal must be a Hindu State”.

The US State Department’s “International Religious Freedom Report” of 2023 noted that “right-wing religious groups associated with the BJP have been providing funds to influential politicians of all parties in Nepal so that they speak in favour of Hindu Statehood”. It further said, “The Civil Society leaders in Nepal claim influence from the BJP and other Hindu groups in India continue to pressure politicians in Nepal, particularly the RPP, to support Hindu State”. The RPP has rejected this claim.

History's lessons

Restoring monarchy is not a new idea, as it has happened many times in the past. Absolute monarchy was the preferred government structure worldwide until a few centuries ago. But most of these monarchies don't exist anymore. Europe's history, since the 1700s, is littered with the cycle of overthrown, restored and repeatedly overthrown monarchies. The King of England went into exile in 1649 after his army was defeated in a civil war. The country was ruled as 'The Commonwealth' until the monarchy was restored in 1660. It has lasted to date. The French monarchy was abolished in 1792 and returned several times in various guises, only to be thrown out repeatedly. It is now completely abolished. The Greek monarchy, created by the London Conference in 1832, was overthrown in 1924 and restored in 1935. It was abolished again in 1973 and is gone forever. Spain also had a round of overthrows and restorations—the last restoration, which occurred in 1978, has lasted to date.

The record of Asian and African monarchies is not dissimilar to that of Europe. A military coup overthrew Afganistan's monarchy in 1973. When Zahir Shah returned 49 years later, the Afghans wanted to put him back on the throne, but that did not work. Afghanistan's monarchy was never restored. Palden Thondup Namal, Chogyal (King) of Sikkim, lost his throne to India in 1975. No one talks about the Iranian monarchy anymore. Africa, too, had many monarchies or some equivalent authority. There are now only three monarchies in Africa, two of which are constitutional.

History informs us that monarchies have been overthrown and restored. Monarchies that fail to meet people's exceptions get dumped. Only constitutional monarchies, which act within the bounds of the constitution, survive, including in England, Spain, Norway, Sweden and Thailand.

It is fairly common for people who have lost hope in the existing system to want to return to the old order, like the restoration of monarchy. When the restored monarchy fails to perform, which most do, they, too, get booted. Eventually, after the cycle of overthrow and restoration is exhausted, despite all its problems, people seem to settle for democratic republics.

Finally

Should the monarchy be restored in Nepal, sustaining it will be challenging. No one will argue that its restoration would be possible without India's support. To survive, the monarchy will have to be accepted as the guardian of our sovereignty and an able manager of corrupt politicians. The monarchy, propped by India, will not have the strength to reject India's overtures, which often infringe on our sovereignty. Also, since the current popularity of our monarchy is more by default—being considered because politicians have failed to deliver, not because people love it—than inherent, if, after restoration, it fails to meet people's expectations, it will, like other restored monarchies, not survive. A constitutional monarchy with no executive power is unlikely to be able to meet those expectations. The absolute monarchy will have the executive power, but we have experimented with it, and it failed.

The monarchists' idea that the return of constitutional monarchy will solve Nepal’s problems is nostalgic, amnesiac, and ahistoric.