With only a few months left for the general elections in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to be in a comfortable position, enjoying high popularity despite his 10 years in power. The massive celebrations of the Ram temple consecration ceremony at Ayodhya last month, with the PM taking centre stage, only served to reinforce his position. There does not appear to be any credible challenge to his leadership.

The opposition, on the other hand, is in disarray. Dozens of opposition parties had come together under the umbrella of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) last year; however, several of them have, in recent times, exited the bloc for various reasons. The main opposition party Congress has shown no signs of a sustained revival. Hoping to replicate the favourable response from the first leg of the Bharat Jodo yatra, former Congress President Rahul Gandhi has set out on the second leg of his yatra, this time from the east to the west.

The consolidation of power by the ruling party and the inability of the opposition to launch an effective challenge are historically unprecedented. The only recent parallel dates back nearly 50 years when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi declared emergency jailing of opposition leaders and suspending civil liberties. Yet, it was a short-lived event, with the opposition managing to oust her and restore democratic freedoms. But 10 years after Modi came to power, the opposition is yet to find its place.

Since Modi’s premiership in 2014, there has been an unrelenting crackdown on the opposition by the central prosecution agencies. In particular, the dreaded Enforcement Directorate, the mandated agency to prosecute individuals under the Money Laundering Act, has raided hundreds of political leaders, their family members and associates, almost exclusively from the opposition parties. Under the strict provisions of the Act, the agency can arrest individuals for an extended period and capture their properties.

The sheer scale of targeting opposition members by the ruling party has stood out in the last decade. The Enforcement Directorate has carried out nearly 3,100 raids in the eight years since 2014; in contrast, the previous 10 years of the Manmohan Singh government saw only 114 raids. The agency has developed a pattern of picking up old cases, bringing them under money laundering and looking for an opportune moment to strike. While the government claims to be only cracking down on corruption, it is more concerned with keeping the opposition under check. A telling evidence is that several opposition leaders, initially framed by the agency, saw their cases quietly dropped once they switched to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Another important way the government has targeted the opposition is by engineering divisions and defections. Starting in 2014, the BJP has brought down elected governments in half a dozen states by inducing groups of opposition members to break away from the parent party and align with the BJP. The existing provisions for anti-defection have proven to be completely inadequate in dealing with this brazen, undemocratic and unethical practice. Many leaders have claimed to break away due to the threat of action by the central agencies, although such allegations are difficult to prove. It is inconceivable that such actions could have been carried out without the knowledge and approval of the top BJP leadership, despite PM Modi’s claims of being tough on corruption and malpractice.

The opposition further saw its role diminished in the Indian parliament as well. When Modi began his first term in 2014, the BJP still depended on the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) inside the Lok Sabha, while the opposition had a majority in the Rajya Sabha. Over time, the BJP increased its membership in the Rajya Sabha and enrolled non-NDA parties in getting important legislation passed. Five years later, the BJP came with an absolute majority and was not dependent on the opposition or NDA partners in the Lok Sabha. It could count on the support of friendly allies in the Rajya Sabha.

Consequently, Parliament has been reduced to a place of rubber stamping legislation as opposed to deliberation and scrutiny. The percentage of bills referred to parliamentary committees reduced dramatically from 71 percent in 2009-14 to 27 percent in 2014-19, and to only around 13 percent since 2019. On several occasions, the government has bypassed scrutiny by the Rajya Sabha by labelling non-financial bills as money bills, which the Rajya Sabha cannot return. The opposition has increasingly resorted to unproductive walkouts and protests, leading to unprecedented punitive action. Dozens of opposition members in the Lok Sabha were suspended from the recently concluded winter session. Rahul Gandhi was suspended by the speaker in 2023 for remarks he made against PM Modi several years ago.

Finally, an effective opposition needs free and fair media. However, today, most mainstream news channels and newspapers take pro-government positions, and critical discussions or appraisals of the government are rare. Government spending on media has risen dramatically, with media houses heavily relying on government patronage and sponsorship. Not surprisingly, the country has dropped on various indicators of press freedom.

The government’s intolerance to criticism was made evident by the tax raids on the BBC in 2023 after it released a documentary containing old footage that was critical of the prime minister. A lone representative of the old school of journalism, the NDTV news channel, was acquired by an Adani-linked company, leading to an exodus of its journalists. The only critical voices heard in the past few years are independent news portals and YouTube channels of former television journalists, such as former NDTV journalist Ravish Kumar.

The criticality of an effective opposition to democracy cannot be overstated. Timely elections are not enough. Inherent in the meaning of “free and fair” elections is the need for opposition parties and candidates to have freedom from persecution and balanced coverage by the media.

Where does this leave the opposition and specifically the Congress Party? The party has always stressed its commitment to democratic and secular principles, and consensual decision-making. Yet, as has often happened, commitment to democratic principles and espousing liberal values do not always lead to votes. Perhaps the least that the INDIA bloc can expect in the upcoming elections is a reduced parliamentary majority of the BJP, if not succeeding in keeping PM Modi from returning to power. This is no doubt a modest target, but one that is achievable.

In the longer term, opposition parties will have to do things to make themselves relevant to the Indian people without necessarily adopting the majoritarian and divisive politics of the ruling party. A key part of this would be the grooming of leaders who can effectively divert the focus from the cult of personality and communal mobilisation towards real economic and social issues. The future of Indian democracy depends on it.

Islam works in the financial services industry based out of Gurgaon.